Predictive Performance Of Machine Learning Algorithms For Ore Reserve Estimation In Sparse And Imprecise Data

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2006Traditional geostatistical estimation techniques have been used predominantly in the mining industry for the purpose of ore reserve estimation. Determination of mineral reserve has always posed considerable challenge to mining engineers due to geological complexities that are generally associated with the phenomenon of ore body formation. Considerable research over the years has resulted in the development of a number of state-of-the-art methods for the task of predictive spatial mapping such as ore reserve estimation. Recent advances in the use of the machine learning algorithms (MLA) have provided a new approach to solve the age-old problem. Therefore, this thesis is focused on the use of two MLA, viz. the neural network (NN) and support vector machine (SVM), for the purpose of ore reserve estimation. Application of the MLA have been elaborated with two complex drill hole datasets. The first dataset is a placer gold drill hole data characterized by high degree of spatial variability, sparseness and noise while the second dataset is obtained from a continuous lode deposit. The application and success of the models developed using these MLA for the purpose of ore reserve estimation depends to a large extent on the data subsets on which they are trained and subsequently on the selection of the appropriate model parameters. The model data subsets obtained by random data division are not desirable in sparse data conditions as it usually results in statistically dissimilar subsets, thereby reducing their applicability. Therefore, an ideal technique for data subdivision has been suggested in the thesis. Additionally, issues pertaining to the optimum model development have also been discussed. To investigate the accuracy and the applicability of the MLA for ore reserve estimation, their generalization ability was compared with the geostatistical ordinary kriging (OK) method. The analysis of Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME) and the coefficient of determination (R2) as the indices of the model performance indicated that they may significantly improve the predictive ability and thereby reduce the inherent risk in ore reserve estimation

A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization of Expensive Cost Functions, with Application to Active User Modeling and Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

We present a tutorial on Bayesian optimization, a method of finding the maximum of expensive cost functions. Bayesian optimization employs the Bayesian technique of setting a prior over the objective function and combining it with evidence to get a posterior function. This permits a utility-based selection of the next observation to make on the objective function, which must take into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling areas likely to offer improvement over the current best observation). We also present two detailed extensions of Bayesian optimization, with experiments---active user modelling with preferences, and hierarchical reinforcement learning---and a discussion of the pros and cons of Bayesian optimization based on our experiences

A systematic review of structural reliability methods for deformation and fatigue analysis of offshore jacket structures

This paper presents the state of the art in Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods with a view of identifying key applications of each method and its proposed variations, qualifying characteristics, advantages, and limitations. Due to the increasing complexity and scale of modern offshore jacket structures, it becomes increasingly necessary to propose an accurate and efficient approach for the assessment of uncertainties in their material properties, geometric dimensions, and operating environments. SRA, as a form of uncertainty analysis, has been demonstrated to be a useful tool in the design of structures because it can directly quantify how uncertainty about input parameters can affect structural performance. Herein, attention was focused specifically on the probabilistic fracture mechanics approach because this accounts accurately for fatigue reliability mostly encountered as being dominant in the design of such structures. The well-established analytical/approximate methods such as the First- and Second-Order Reliability Methods (FORM/SORM) are widely used as they offer a good balance between accuracy and efficiency for realistic problems. They are, however, inaccurate in cases of highly non-linear systems. As a result, they have been modified using methods such as conjugate search direction approach, saddle point approximation, subset simulation, evidence theory, etc. in order to improve accuracy. Initially, direct simulations methods such as the Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCS) with its various variance reduction techniques such as the Importance Sampling (IS), Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), etc. are ideal for structures having non-linear limit states but perform poorly for problems that calculate very low probabilities of failure. Overall, each method has its own merits and limitation, with FORM/SORM being the most commonly used, but recently, simulation methods have increasingly been used due to continuous advances in computation powers. Other relevant methods include the Response Surface Methods (RSM) and the Surrogate Models/Meta-models (SM/MM), which are advanced approximation methods and are ideal for structures with implicit limit state functions and high-reliability indices. Combinations of advanced approximation methods and reliability analysis methods are also found in literature as they can be suitable for complex, highly non-linear problems

Surrogate-Assisted Unified Optimization Framework for Investigating Marine Structural Design Under Information Uncertainty.

Structural decisions made in the early stages of marine systems design can have a large impact on future acquisition, maintenance and life-cycle costs. However, owing to the unique nature of early stage marine system design, these critical structure decisions are often made on the basis of incomplete information or knowledge about the design. When coupled with design optimization analysis, the complex, uncertain early stage design environment makes it very difficult to deliver a quantified trade-off analysis for decision making. This work presents a novel decision support method that integrates design optimization, high-fidelity analysis, and modeling of information uncertainty for early stage design and analysis. To support this method this dissertation improves the design optimization methods for marine structures by proposing several novel surrogate modeling techniques and strategies. The proposed work treats the uncertainties that are sourced from limited information in a non-statistical interval uncertainty form. This interval uncertainty is treated as an objective function in an optimization framework in order to explore the impact of information uncertainty on structural design performance. In this examination, the potential structural weight penalty regarding information uncertainty can be quickly identified in early stage, avoiding costly redesign later in the design. This dissertation then continues to explore a balanced computational structure between fidelity and efficiency. A proposed novel variable fidelity approach can be applied to wisely allocate expensive high-fidelity computational simulations. In achieving the proposed capabilities for design optimization, several surrogate modeling methods are developed concerning worst-case estimation, clustered multiple meta-modeling, and mixed variable modeling techniques. These surrogate methods have been demonstrated to significantly improve the efficiency of optimizer in dealing with the challenges of early stage marine structure design.PhDNaval Architecture and Marine EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133365/1/yanliuch_1.pd

A review of source term estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion events using static or mobile sensors

Understanding atmospheric transport and dispersal events has an important role in a range of scenarios. Of particular importance is aiding in emergency response after an intentional or accidental chemical, biological or radiological (CBR) release. In the event of a CBR release, it is desirable to know the current and future spatial extent of the contaminant as well as its location in order to aid decision makers in emergency response. Many dispersion phenomena may be opaque or clear, thus monitoring them using visual methods will be difficult or impossible. In these scenarios, relevant concentration sensors are required to detect the substance where they can form a static network on the ground or be placed upon mobile platforms. This paper presents a review of techniques used to gain information about atmospheric dispersion events using static or mobile sensors. The review is concluded with a discussion on the current limitations of the state of the art and recommendations for future research