Comparing Methods of Targeting Obesity Interventions in Populations: An Agent-based Simulation

Social networks as well as neighborhood environments have been shown to effect obesity-related behaviors including energy intake and physical activity. Accordingly, harnessing social networks to improve targeting of obesity interventions may be promising to the extent this leads to social multiplier effects and wider diffusion of intervention impact on populations. However, the literature evaluating network-based interventions has been inconsistent. Computational methods like agent-based models (ABM) provide researchers with tools to experiment in a simulated environment. We develop an ABM to compare conventional targeting methods (random selection, based on individual obesity risk, and vulnerable areas) with network-based targeting methods. We adapt a previously published and validated model of network diffusion of obesity-related behavior. We then build social networks among agents using a more realistic approach. We calibrate our model first against national-level data. Our results show that network-based targeting may lead to greater population impact. We also present a new targeting method that outperforms other methods in terms of intervention effectiveness at the population level

Learning Dynamic Network Models for Complex Social Systems

Human societies are inherently complex and highly dynamic, resulting in rapidly changing social networks, containing multiple types of dyadic interactions. Analyzing these time-varying multiplex networks with approaches developed for static, single layer networks often produces poor results. To address this problem, our approach is to explicitly learn the dynamics of these complex networks. This dissertation focuses on five problems: 1) learning link formation rates; 2) predicting changes in community membership; 3) using time series to predict changes in network structure; 4) modeling coevolution patterns across network layers and 5) extracting information from negative layers of a multiplex network. To study these problems, we created a rich dataset extracted from observing social interactions in the massively multiplayer online game Travian. Most online social media platforms are optimized to support a limited range of social interactions, primarily focusing on communication and information sharing. In contrast, relations in massively-multiplayer online games (MMOGs) are often formed during the course of gameplay and evolve as the game progresses. To analyze the players\u27 behavior, we constructed multiplex networks with link types for raid, communication, and trading. The contributions of this dissertation include 1) extensive experiments on the dynamics of networks formed from diverse social processes; 2) new game theoretic models for community detection in dynamic networks; 3) supervised and unsupervised methods for link prediction in multiplex coevolving networks for both positive and negative links. We demonstrate that our holistic approach for modeling network dynamics in coevolving, multiplex networks outperforms factored methods that separately consider temporal and cross-layer patterns