YSA, ARIMA ve ARIMAX Yöntemleriyle Satış Tahmini: Beyaz Eşya Sektöründe bir Uygulama Sales Forecast with YSA, ARIMA and ARIMAX Methods: An Application in the White Goods Sector

Beyaz eşya sektörü Türkiye’nin istihdama ve ihracata verdiği katkılardan dolayı lokomotif sektörlerinden biridir. Son yıllarda yaşanan teknolojik gelişmeler ve küreselleşme ile birlikte yaşanan zorlu rekabet koşullarından etkilenen sektörler içerisinde yer almaktadır. Etkili bir üretim planlaması; mevcut talebi zamanında ve minimum maliyetle karşılayabilmelidir. Mevcut talebi tespit edebilmek ise iyi bir satış tahmini ile mümkün olmaktadır. Bu yönüyle satış tahmini, karar vericilerin başarılı olmalarında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, beyaz eşya sektörü için bir satış tahmini modeli önerilmiştir. Bulaşık makinesi, çamaşır makinesi, buzdolabı, küçük ev aletleri ve televizyon ürünleri için 46 aylık satış verileri kullanılmıştır. Satışları etkileyen faktörler olan döviz kuru, tatil günleri, tüketici güven endeksi (TGE), üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE) ve bölgedeki konut satışları, açıklayıcı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Yapay sinir ağları (YSA), ARIMA ve ARIMAX yöntemleri ile elde edilen sonuçlar, ortalama kareli hata (OKH) performans kriterine göre kıyaslandığında en isabetli tahminlerin YSA yöntemi kullanılarak elde edildiği söylenebilir. The white goods sector is one of the locomotive sectors of the country due to the contributions of employment and exports. The technological developments and globalization experienced in recent years are among the sectors that are affected by the changing and competitive conditions. Efficient production planning; must meet the current demand in time and with minimal cost. Determining the current demand is possible with a good sales forecast. In this sense, sales forecasting plays an important role in the success of decision makers. In this study, the sales forecast model for the white goods sector was proposed. The 46 months’ sales data have been used for dishwashers, refrigerators, small house appliances and televisions. The exchange rate, holiday days, consumer confidence index, producer price index, housing sales in the region are used as explanatory variable. It can be said that the most accurate estimates are obtained by using the ANN method when mean squared error (MSE) compared which is the performance criterion

Modelling, Monitoring, Control and Optimization for Complex Industrial Processes

This reprint includes 22 research papers and an editorial, collected from the Special Issue "Modelling, Monitoring, Control and Optimization for Complex Industrial Processes", highlighting recent research advances and emerging research directions in complex industrial processes. This reprint aims to promote the research field and benefit the readers from both academic communities and industrial sectors

CITIES: Energetic Efficiency, Sustainability; Infrastructures, Energy and the Environment; Mobility and IoT; Governance and Citizenship

This book collects important contributions on smart cities. This book was created in collaboration with the ICSC-CITIES2020, held in San José (Costa Rica) in 2020. This book collects articles on: energetic efficiency and sustainability; infrastructures, energy and the environment; mobility and IoT; governance and citizenship

Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments

This book presents the collection of fifty two papers which were presented on the First International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY ’08 - Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments, held in Ofir, Portugal, from 25th to 27th of June, 2008. The main motive of the meeting was the growing awareness of the importance of the sustainability issue. This importance had emerged from the growing uncertainty of the market behaviour that leads to the characterization of the market, i.e. environment, as turbulent. Actually, the characterization of the environment as uncertain and turbulent reflects the fact that the traditional technocratic and/or socio-technical approaches cannot effectively and efficiently lead with the present situation. In other words, the rise of the sustainability issue means the quest for new instruments to deal with uncertainty and/or turbulence. The sustainability issue has a complex nature and solutions are sought in a wide range of domains and instruments to achieve and manage it. The domains range from environmental sustainability (referring to natural environment) through organisational and business sustainability towards social sustainability. Concerning the instruments for sustainability, they range from traditional engineering and management methodologies towards “soft” instruments such as knowledge, learning, creativity. The papers in this book address virtually whole sustainability problems space in a greater or lesser extent. However, although the uncertainty and/or turbulence, or in other words the dynamic properties, come from coupling of management, technology, learning, individuals, organisations and society, meaning that everything is at the same time effect and cause, we wanted to put the emphasis on business with the intention to address primarily the companies and their businesses. From this reason, the main title of the book is “Business Sustainability” but with the approach of coupling Management, Technology and Learning for individuals, organisations and society in Turbulent Environments. Concerning the First International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, its particularity was that it had served primarily as a learning environment in which the papers published in this book were the ground for further individual and collective growth in understanding and perception of sustainability and capacity for building new instruments for business sustainability. In that respect, the methodology of the conference work was basically dialogical, meaning promoting dialog on the papers, but also including formal paper presentations. In this way, the conference presented a rich space for satisfying different authors’ and participants’ needs. Additionally, promoting the widest and global learning environment and participativeness, the Conference Organisation provided the broadcasting over Internet of the Conference sessions, dialogical and formal presentations, for all authors’ and participants’ institutions, as an innovative Conference feature. In these terms, this book could also be understood as a complementary instrument to the Conference authors’ and participants’, but also to the wider readerships’ interested in the sustainability issues. The book brought together 97 authors from 10 countries, namely from Australia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden and United Kingdom. The authors “ranged” from senior and renowned scientists to young researchers providing a rich and learning environment. At the end, the editors hope and would like that this book will be useful, meeting the expectation of the authors and wider readership and serving for enhancing the individual and collective learning, and to incentive further scientific development and creation of new papers. Also, the editors would use this opportunity to announce the intention to continue with new editions of the conference and subsequent editions of accompanying books on the subject of BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, the second of which is planned for year 2011.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio