Predicting complex system behavior using hybrid modeling and computational intelligence

“Modeling and prediction of complex systems is a challenging problem due to the sub-system interactions and dependencies. This research examines combining various computational intelligence algorithms and modeling techniques to provide insights into these complex processes and allow for better decision making. This hybrid methodology provided additional capabilities to analyze and predict the overall system behavior where a single model cannot be used to understand the complex problem. The systems analyzed here are flooding events and fetal health care. The impact of floods on road infrastructure is investigated using graph theory, agent-based traffic simulation, and Long Short-Term Memory deep learning to predict water level rise from river gauge height. Combined with existing infrastructure models, these techniques provide a 15-minute interval for making closure decisions rather than the current 6-hour interval. The second system explored is fetal monitoring, which is essential to diagnose severe fetal conditions such as acidosis. Support Vector Machine and Random Forest were compared to identify the best model for classification of fetal state. This model provided a more accurate classification than existing research on the CTG. A deep learning forecasting model was developed to predict the future values for fetal heart rate and uterine contractions. The forecasting and classification algorithms are then integrated to evaluate the future condition of the fetus. The final model can predict the fetal state 4 minutes ahead to help the obstetricians to plan necessary interventions for preventing acidosis and asphyxiation. In both cases, time series predictions using hybrid modeling provided superior results to existing methods to predict complex behaviors”--Abstract, page iv

Detection of atrial fibrillation episodes in long-term heart rhythm signals using a support vector machine

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a serious heart arrhythmia leading to a significant increase of the risk for occurrence of ischemic stroke. Clinically, the AF episode is recognized in an electrocardiogram. However, detection of asymptomatic AF, which requires a long-term monitoring, is more efficient when based on irregularity of beat-to-beat intervals estimated by the heart rate (HR) features. Automated classification of heartbeats into AF and non-AF by means of the Lagrangian Support Vector Machine has been proposed. The classifier input vector consisted of sixteen features, including four coefficients very sensitive to beat-to-beat heart changes, taken from the fetal heart rate analysis in perinatal medicine. Effectiveness of the proposed classifier has been verified on the MIT-BIH Atrial Fibrillation Database. Designing of the LSVM classifier using very large number of feature vectors requires extreme computational efforts. Therefore, an original approach has been proposed to determine a training set of the smallest possible size that still would guarantee a high quality of AF detection. It enables to obtain satisfactory results using only 1.39% of all heartbeats as the training data. Post-processing stage based on aggregation of classified heartbeats into AF episodes has been applied to provide more reliable information on patient risk. Results obtained during the testing phase showed the sensitivity of 98.94%, positive predictive value of 98.39%, and classification accuracy of 98.86%.Web of Science203art. no. 76

Hybrid methods based on empirical mode decomposition for non-invasive fetal heart rate monitoring

This study focuses on fetal electrocardiogram (fECG) processing using hybrid methods that combine two or more individual methods. Combinations of independent component analysis (ICA), wavelet transform (WT), recursive least squares (RLS), and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) were used to create the individual hybrid methods. Following four hybrid methods were compared and evaluated in this study: ICA-EMD, ICA-EMD-WT, EMD-WT, and ICA-RLS-EMD. The methods were tested on two databases, the ADFECGDB database and the PhysioNet Challenge 2013 database. Extraction evaluation is based on fetal heart rate (fHR) determination. Statistical evaluation is based on determination of correct detection (ACC), sensitivity (Se), positive predictive value (PPV), and harmonic mean between Se and PPV (F1). In this study, the best results were achieved by means of the ICA-RLS-EMD hybrid method, which achieved accuracy(ACC) > 80% at 9 out of 12 recordings when tested on the ADFECGDB database, reaching an average value of ACC > 84%, Se > 87%, PPV > 92%, and F1 > 90%. When tested on the Physionet Challenge 2013 database, ACC > 80% was achieved at 12 out of 25 recordings with an average value of ACC > 64%, Se > 69%, PPV > 79%, and F1 > 72%.Web of Science8512185120

When intra-partum electronic fetal monitoring becomes court business

Sadly but inevitably, the clinical fruit of all scientific research, like the profile of the Roman god Janus, presents us with two faces - one is patient benefit while the other is medico-legal vulnerability. As part of defensive medicine, there are situations where malpractice risk is minimised by actual elimination of certain high-risk procedures e.g. in the case of some neurosurgical operations. Intra-partum electronic fetal monitoring (IPEFM) is the commonest obstetric procedure in the developed world, producing valuable information of fetal well being as co-related to maternal uterine activity with a scope of guarding fetal well-being in labour. It is a prime example of the therapeutic/ legal liability duality which haunts modern Medicine.peer-reviewe

Deep Learning in Cardiology

The medical field is creating large amount of data that physicians are unable to decipher and use efficiently. Moreover, rule-based expert systems are inefficient in solving complicated medical tasks or for creating insights using big data. Deep learning has emerged as a more accurate and effective technology in a wide range of medical problems such as diagnosis, prediction and intervention. Deep learning is a representation learning method that consists of layers that transform the data non-linearly, thus, revealing hierarchical relationships and structures. In this review we survey deep learning application papers that use structured data, signal and imaging modalities from cardiology. We discuss the advantages and limitations of applying deep learning in cardiology that also apply in medicine in general, while proposing certain directions as the most viable for clinical use.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figures, 10 table

Fetal heterotaxy with tricuspid atresia, pulmonary atresia, and isomerism of the right atrial appendages at 22 weeks.

We report the accurate prenatal diagnosis at 22 weeks gestation of right atrial isomerism in association with tricuspid atresia. Several distinctive sonographic features of isomerism of the right atrial appendages were present in this fetus: complex cardiac abnormality, ventriculoarterial discordance, juxtaposition of the aorta and the inferior vena cava to the right side, pulmonary atresia, and anomalous pulmonary venous return to the morphological right atrium. Tricuspid atresia, which is an extremely rare lesion within heterotaxy spectrum disorders, was present. Postnatal investigations confirmed all prenatally diagnosed abnormalities, with additional findings of pulmonary atresia with discontinuous pulmonary arteries and bilateral arterial ducts, asplenia, and bilateral eparterial bronchi. To our knowledge, tricuspid atresia in the setting of isomerism of the right atrial appendages has not previously been diagnosed or reported prenatally. Because of the complexity of cardiac lesions that may be present in cases of atrial isomerism, these disorders should be considered even if sonographic findings are uncommon or atypical