Prediction Time Assessment in a DDDAS for Natural Hazard Management: Forest Fire Study Case ✩

This work faces the problem of quality and prediction time assessment in a Dynamic Data Driven Application System (DDDAS) for predicting natural hazard evolution. In particular, we used forest fire spread prediction as a case study to show the applicability of the methodology. The improvement on the prediction quality when using a two-stage DDDAS prediction framework has been widely proved. The two-stages DDDAS has a first phase where an adjustment of the input data is performed in order to be applied in the second phase, the prediction. This paper is focused on defining a new methodology for prediction time assessment under this kind of prediction environments by evaluating, in advance, how a certain combination of simulator, computational resources, adjustment strategy, and frequency of data acquisition will perform, in terms of prediction time. Since the time incurred in the hazard simulation is a crucial part of the whole prediction time, we have defined a methodology to classify the simulator’s execution time using Artificial Intelligence techniques allowing us to determine upper bounds for the DDDAS prediction time depending on the particular input parameter setting. This methodology can be extrapolated to any DDDAS for predicting natural hazards evolution, which uses the two-stage prediction scheme as a working framework. Keywords

United States Air Force Applications of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS): A Delphi Study to Examine Current and Future UAS Autonomous Mission Capabilities

As UAS technology continues to grow and enable increased autonomous capabilities, acquisition and operational decision makers must determine paths to pursue for existing and emerging mission areas. The DoD has published a number of 25-year unmanned systems integration roadmaps (USIR) to describe future capabilities and challenges. However, these roadmaps have lacked distinguishable stakeholder perspectives. Following the USIRs concept, this research focused on UAS autonomy through the lens of UAS subject matter experts (SMEs). We used the Delphi method with SMEs from USAF communities performing day-to-day operations, acquisitions, and research in UAS domains to forecast mission capabilities over the next 20 years; specifically, within the context of increased UAS autonomous capabilities. Through two rounds of questions, the study provided insight to the capabilities SMEs viewed as most important and likely to be incorporated as well as how different stakeholders view the many challenges and opportunities autonomy present for future missions

Modeling wildland fire radiance in synthetic remote sensing scenes

This thesis develops a framework for implementing radiometric modeling and visualization of wildland fire. The ability to accurately model physical and op- tical properties of wildfire and burn area in an infrared remote sensing system will assist efforts in phenomenology studies, algorithm development, and sensor evaluation. Synthetic scenes are also needed for a Wildland Fire Dynamic Data Driven Applications Systems (DDDAS) for model feedback and update. A fast approach is presented to predict 3D flame geometry based on real time measured heat flux, fuel loading, and wind speed. 3D flame geometry could realize more realistic radiometry simulation. A Coupled Atmosphere-Fire Model is used to de- rive the parameters of the motion field and simulate fire dynamics and evolution. Broad band target (fire, smoke, and burn scar) spectra are synthesized based on ground measurements and MODTRAN runs. Combining the temporal and spa- tial distribution of fire parameters, along with the target spectra, a physics based model is used to generate radiance scenes depicting what the target might look like as seen by the airborne sensor. Radiance scene rendering of the 3D flame includes 2D hot ground and burn scar cooling, 3D flame direct radiation, and 3D indirect reflected radiation. Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) is a parameter defined from infrared remote sensing data that is applied to determine the radiative energy released during a wildland fire. FRE derived with the Bi-spectral method and the MIR radiance method are applied to verify the fire radiance scene synthesized in this research. The results for the synthetic scenes agree well with published values derived from wildland fire images

Advanced physics-based and data-driven strategies

Simulation Based Engineering Science (SBES) has brought major improvements in optimization, control and inverse analysis, all leading to a deeper understanding in many processes occuring in the real world. These noticeable breakthroughts are present in a vast variety of sectors such as aeronautic or automotive industries, mobile telecommunications or healthcare among many other fields. Nevertheless, SBES is currently confronting several difficulties to provide accurate results in complex industrial problems. Apart from the high computational costs associated with industrial applications, the errors introduced by constitutive modeling become more and more important when dealing with new materials. Concurrently, an unceasingly growing interest in concepts such as Big-Data, Machine Learning or Data-Analytics has been experienced. Indeed, this interest is intrinsically motivated by an exhaustive development in both data-acquisition and data-storage systems. For instance, an aircraft may produce over 500 GB of data during a single flight. This panorama brings a perfect opportunity to the so-called Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS), whose main objective is to merge classical simulation algorithms with data coming from experimental measures in a dynamic way. Within this scenario, data and simulations would no longer be uncoupled but rather a symbiosis that is to be exploited would achieve milestones which were inconceivable until these days. Indeed, data will no longer be understood as a static calibration of a given constitutive model but rather the model will be corrected dynamicly as soon as experimental data and simulations tend to diverge. Several numerical algorithms will be presented throughout this manuscript whose main objective is to strengthen the link between data and computational mechanics. The first part of the thesis is mainly focused on parameter identification, data-driven and data completion techniques. The second part is focused on Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques, since they constitute a fundamental ally to achieve real time constraints arising from DDDAS framework.La Ciencia de la Ingeniería Basada en la Simulación (SBES) ha aportado importantes mejoras en la optimización, el control y el análisis inverso, todo lo cual ha llevado a una comprensión más profunda de muchos de los procesos que ocurren en el mundo real. Estos notables avances están presentes en una gran variedad de sectores como la industria aeronáutica o automotriz, las telecomunicaciones móviles o la salud, entre muchos otros campos. Sin embargo, SBES se enfrenta actualmente a varias dificultades para proporcionar resultados precisos en problemas industriales complejos. Aparte de los altos costes computacionales asociados a las aplicaciones industriales, los errores introducidos por el modelado constitutivo son cada vez más importantes a la hora de tratar con nuevos materiales. Al mismo tiempo, se ha experimentado un interés cada vez mayor en conceptos como Big-Data, Machine Learning o Data-Analytics. Ciertamente, este interés está intrínsecamente motivado por un desarrollo exhaustivo de los sistemas de adquisición y almacenamiento de datos. Por ejemplo, una aeronave puede producir más de 500 GB de datos durante un solo vuelo. Este panorama brinda una oportunidad perfecta a los denominados Sistemas de Aplicación Dinámicos Impulsados por Datos (DDDAS), cuyo objetivo principal es fusionar de forma dinámica los algoritmos clásicos de simulación con los datos procedentes de medidas experimentales. En este escenario, los datos y las simulaciones ya no se desacoplarían, sino que aprovechando una simbiosis se alcanzaría hitos que hasta ahora eran inconcebibles. Mas en detalle, los datos ya no se entenderán como una calibración estática de un modelo constitutivo dado, sino que el modelo se corregirá dinámicamente tan pronto como los datos experimentales y las simulaciones tiendan a diverger. A lo largo de este manuscrito se presentarán varios algoritmos numéricos cuyo objetivo principal es fortalecer el vínculo entre los datos y la mecánica computacional. La primera parte de la tesis se centra principalmente en técnicas de identificación de parámetros, basadas en datos y de compleción de datos. La segunda parte se centra en las técnicas de Reducción de Modelo (MOR), ya que constituyen un aliado fundamental para conseguir las restricciones de tiempo real derivadas del marco DDDAS.Les sciences de l'ingénieur basées sur la simulation (Simulation Based Engineering Science, SBES) ont apporté des améliorations majeures dans l'optimisation, le contrôle et l'analyse inverse, menant toutes à une meilleure compréhension de nombreux processus se produisant dans le monde réel. Ces percées notables sont présentes dans une grande variété de secteurs tels que l'aéronautique ou l'automobile, les télécommunications mobiles ou la santé, entre autres. Néanmoins, les SBES sont actuellement confrontées à plusieurs dificultés pour fournir des résultats précis dans des problèmes industriels complexes. Outre les coûts de calcul élevés associés aux applications industrielles, les erreurs introduites par la modélisation constitutive deviennent de plus en plus importantes lorsqu'il s'agit de nouveaux matériaux. Parallèlement, un intérêt sans cesse croissant pour des concepts tels que les données massives (big data), l'apprentissage machine ou l'analyse de données a été constaté. En effet, cet intérêt est intrinsèquement motivé par un développement exhaustif des systèmes d'acquisition et de stockage de données. Par exemple, un avion peut produire plus de 500 Go de données au cours d'un seul vol. Ce panorama apporte une opportunité parfaite aux systèmes d'application dynamiques pilotés par les données (Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems, DDDAS), dont l'objectif principal est de fusionner de manière dynamique des algorithmes de simulation classiques avec des données provenant de mesures expérimentales. Dans ce scénario, les données et les simulations ne seraient plus découplées, mais une symbiose à exploiter permettrait d'envisager des situations jusqu'alors inconcevables. En effet, les données ne seront plus comprises comme un étalonnage statique d'un modèle constitutif donné mais plutôt comme une correction dynamique du modèle dès que les données expérimentales et les simulations auront tendance à diverger. Plusieurs algorithmes numériques seront présentés tout au long de ce manuscrit dont l'objectif principal est de renforcer le lien entre les données et la mécanique computationnelle. La première partie de la thèse est principalement axée sur l'identification des paramètres, les techniques d'analyse des données et les techniques de complétion de données. La deuxième partie est axée sur les techniques de réduction de modèle (MOR), car elles constituent un allié fondamental pour satisfaire les contraintes temps réel découlant du cadre DDDAS

DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTION, DESIGN, AND CONTROL OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR USING STATISTICAL LEARNING

The goal in this dissertation is to develop new data-driven techniques for prediction, design, and control of the behavior of a variety of engineering systems. The data used can be obtained from a variety of sources, including from offline, high-fidelity system’s simulation, physical experiments, and online, sparse measurements from sensors. Three inter-related research directions are followed in this dissertation. Following the first direction, the author presents a multi-step-ahead prediction technique for evaluating a single-response (or single-output of the) system’s behavior through an integration of the data obtained offline from the system’s high-fidelity simulation, and online from single sensor measurements. With regard to the first research direction, the key contribution includes a reasonably fast and accurate prediction strategy that can be used, among others, for online, multi-step ahead forecasting of the system’s operational behavior. Building on the work from the first direction, the author follows a second research direction to present a multi-step ahead prediction technique, this time for a multi-response system’s behavior, that can be used for evaluating various system’s designs and corresponding operations. Data in this case is obtained from the offline, high-fidelity system’s simulations, and online sparse measurements from multiple sensors (or limited number of physical experiments). The main contribution for this second direction is in construction of a new data-driven, multi-response prediction framework that has a robust predictive capability. Along the third research direction, a data-driven technique is used for prediction and co-optimization of a system’s design and control. The data in this case is obtained from sensor measurements or a simulator. The main contribution achieved through the third direction is a new data-driven reinforcement learning-based prediction and co-optimization approach. The methods from this dissertation have numerous applications, including those demonstrated here: (i) assessment of safe aircraft flight conditions (Chapters 2 and 3), (ii) evaluation of design and operation of a robotic appendage (Chapter 3), and (iii) design and control of a traffic system (Chapter 4)

An unsupervised data completion method for physically-based data-driven models

Data-driven methods are an innovative model-free approach for engineering and sciences, still in process of maturation. The idea behind is the combination of data analytics techniques, to handle the huge amount of data derived from continuous monitoring or experimental measurements, and of the constraints imposed by universal physical laws, particular to the field in hands. A well-known problem in the former corresponds to the quality and completeness of the available data that, sometimes, are so poor that make the predictions useless. In data-driven simulation-based engineering and sciences (DDSBES), the intrinsic physical constraints may help in completing the missing data in a more precise manner, by forcing them to remain in the manifold defined by the physical laws. In this work, a suitable imputation method to complete incomplete data that preserves the data context-dependent structure is presented. This is accomplished by enforcing the data to fulfill the set of physical constraints, specific to the problem. For this purpose, a generalization of the weighted mean concept is proposed, where the distance to the admissible points (in a physical sense) is used as a weighting function to get the optimal candidate. The method is evaluated in a classical regression problem, where it is compared with other standard methods, showing better results. Then, its application is illustrated in two data-driven problems, where no filling data procedure has been yet proposed, showing good predictive capability, provided that the data are close enough to the actual system state

Advanced physics-based and data-driven strategies

Cotutela: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya i École Centrale de Nantes.Premi Extraordinari de Doctorat, promoció 2018-2019. Àmbit d’Enginyeria Civil i AmbientalSimulation Based Engineering Science (SBES) has brought major improvements in optimization, control and inverse analysis, all leading to a deeper understanding in many processes occuring in the real world. These noticeable breakthroughts are present in a vast variety of sectors such as aeronautic or automotive industries, mobile telecommunications or healthcare among many other fields. Nevertheless, SBES is currently confronting several difficulties to provide accurate results in complex industrial problems. Apart from the high computational costs associated with industrial applications, the errors introduced by constitutive modeling become more and more important when dealing with new materials. Concurrently, an unceasingly growing interest in concepts such as Big-Data, Machine Learning or Data-Analytics has been experienced. Indeed, this interest is intrinsically motivated by an exhaustive development in both data-acquisition and data-storage systems. For instance, an aircraft may produce over 500 GB of data during a single flight. This panorama brings a perfect opportunity to the so-called Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS), whose main objective is to merge classical simulation algorithms with data coming from experimental measures in a dynamic way. Within this scenario, data and simulations would no longer be uncoupled but rather a symbiosis that is to be exploited would achieve milestones which were inconceivable until these days. Indeed, data will no longer be understood as a static calibration of a given constitutive model but rather the model will be corrected dynamicly as soon as experimental data and simulations tend to diverge. Several numerical algorithms will be presented throughout this manuscript whose main objective is to strengthen the link between data and computational mechanics. The first part of the thesis is mainly focused on parameter identification, data-driven and data completion techniques. The second part is focused on Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques, since they constitute a fundamental ally to achieve real time constraints arising from DDDAS framework.La Ciencia de la Ingeniería Basada en la Simulación (SBES) ha aportado importantes mejoras en la optimización, el control y el análisis inverso, todo lo cual ha llevado a una comprensión más profunda de muchos de los procesos que ocurren en el mundo real. Estos notables avances están presentes en una gran variedad de sectores como la industria aeronáutica o automotriz, las telecomunicaciones móviles o la salud, entre muchos otros campos. Sin embargo, SBES se enfrenta actualmente a varias dificultades para proporcionar resultados precisos en problemas industriales complejos. Aparte de los altos costes computacionales asociados a las aplicaciones industriales, los errores introducidos por el modelado constitutivo son cada vez más importantes a la hora de tratar con nuevos materiales. Al mismo tiempo, se ha experimentado un interés cada vez mayor en conceptos como Big-Data, Machine Learning o Data-Analytics. Ciertamente, este interés está intrínsecamente motivado por un desarrollo exhaustivo de los sistemas de adquisición y almacenamiento de datos. Por ejemplo, una aeronave puede producir más de 500 GB de datos durante un solo vuelo. Este panorama brinda una oportunidad perfecta a los denominados Sistemas de Aplicación Dinámicos Impulsados por Datos (DDDAS), cuyo objetivo principal es fusionar de forma dinámica los algoritmos clásicos de simulación con los datos procedentes de medidas experimentales. En este escenario, los datos y las simulaciones ya no se desacoplarían, sino que aprovechando una simbiosis se alcanzaría hitos que hasta ahora eran inconcebibles. Mas en detalle, los datos ya no se entenderán como una calibración estática de un modelo constitutivo dado, sino que el modelo se corregirá dinámicamente tan pronto como los datos experimentales y las simulaciones tiendan a diverger. A lo largo de este manuscrito se presentarán varios algoritmos numéricos cuyo objetivo principal es fortalecer el vínculo entre los datos y la mecánica computacional. La primera parte de la tesis se centra principalmente en técnicas de identificación de parámetros, basadas en datos y de compleción de datos. La segunda parte se centra en las técnicas de Reducción de Modelo (MOR), ya que constituyen un aliado fundamental para conseguir las restricciones de tiempo real derivadas del marco DDDAS.Les sciences de l'ingénieur basées sur la simulation (Simulation Based Engineering Science, SBES) ont apporté des améliorations majeures dans l'optimisation, le contrôle et l'analyse inverse, menant toutes à une meilleure compréhension de nombreux processus se produisant dans le monde réel. Ces percées notables sont présentes dans une grande variété de secteurs tels que l'aéronautique ou l'automobile, les télécommunications mobiles ou la santé, entre autres. Néanmoins, les SBES sont actuellement confrontées à plusieurs dificultés pour fournir des résultats précis dans des problèmes industriels complexes. Outre les coûts de calcul élevés associés aux applications industrielles, les erreurs introduites par la modélisation constitutive deviennent de plus en plus importantes lorsqu'il s'agit de nouveaux matériaux. Parallèlement, un intérêt sans cesse croissant pour des concepts tels que les données massives (big data), l'apprentissage machine ou l'analyse de données a été constaté. En effet, cet intérêt est intrinsèquement motivé par un développement exhaustif des systèmes d'acquisition et de stockage de données. Par exemple, un avion peut produire plus de 500 Go de données au cours d'un seul vol. Ce panorama apporte une opportunité parfaite aux systèmes d'application dynamiques pilotés par les données (Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems, DDDAS), dont l'objectif principal est de fusionner de manière dynamique des algorithmes de simulation classiques avec des données provenant de mesures expérimentales. Dans ce scénario, les données et les simulations ne seraient plus découplées, mais une symbiose à exploiter permettrait d'envisager des situations jusqu'alors inconcevables. En effet, les données ne seront plus comprises comme un étalonnage statique d'un modèle constitutif donné mais plutôt comme une correction dynamique du modèle dès que les données expérimentales et les simulations auront tendance à diverger. Plusieurs algorithmes numériques seront présentés tout au long de ce manuscrit dont l'objectif principal est de renforcer le lien entre les données et la mécanique computationnelle. La première partie de la thèse est principalement axée sur l'identification des paramètres, les techniques d'analyse des données et les techniques de complétion de données. La deuxième partie est axée sur les techniques de réduction de modèle (MOR), car elles constituent un allié fondamental pour satisfaire les contraintes temps réel découlant du cadre DDDAS.Award-winningPostprint (published version

Empowering engineering with data, machine learning and artificial intelligence: a short introductive review

Simulation-based engineering has been a major protagonist of the technology of the last century. However, models based on well established physics fail sometimes to describe the observed reality. They often exhibit noticeable differences between physics-based model predictions and measurements. This difference is due to several reasons: practical (uncertainty and variability of the parameters involved in the models) and epistemic (the models themselves are in many cases a crude approximation of a rich reality). On the other side, approaching the reality from experimental data represents a valuable approach because of its generality. However, this approach embraces many difficulties: model and experimental variability; the need of a large number of measurements to accurately represent rich solutions (extremely nonlinear or fluctuating), the associate cost and technical difficulties to perform them; and finally, the difficulty to explain and certify, both constituting key aspects in most engineering applications. This work overviews some of the most remarkable progress in the field in recent years