Equity research - Hapag-Lloyd, AG

Mestrado Bolonha em FinançasThe Equity Research report of Hapag-Lloyd, AG was written based on the research report format of ISEG’s Master Final Work also recommended by the CFA Institute, divided into the following 8 parts: Research Snapshot, Business Description, Management and Corporate Governance which also includes Environmental, Social and Governance, Industry Analysis, Investment Summary, Valuation, Financial Analysis, Investment Risks. Hapag-Lloyd is the 5th largest container liner shipping company that operates worldwide with 421 sales offices in 137 counties. The core business of Hapag-Lloyd is container liner shipping, but also includes transport services from door to door. Its leading market position is evidenced by its transport capacity of 1.8m TEU and revenue of €22.3bn in FY2021, a sharp increase of 74% compared to FY2020. With the closing price at €177.6 per share on 30th December 2022 and a calculated price target of €207.84 for 2023YE, Hapag-Lloyd's recommendation is "Hold" given its high exposure to economic cycles and the high-risk profile indicated by its "single" business segment. The price target is estimated based on the DCF model as the primary methodology, supported by other absolute and relative methods, representing an upside potential of 17.03%. Hapag-Lloyd expects to deliver solid financial performance in 2022, because of ultrahigh freight rates resulting from supply chain disruptions and high demand for goods.O relatório de Equity Research da Hapag-Lloyd, AG foi escrito com base no formato de relatório de pesquisa do Trabalho Final de Mestrado do ISEG, recomendado pelo CFA Institute, tendo sido dividido nas seguintes 8 partes: Research Snapshot, Business Description, Management and Corporate Governance que também inclui o Environmental, Social and Governance, a Industry Analysis, o Investment Summary, a Valuation, a Financial Analysis, bem como Investment Risks. A Hapag-Lloyd é a quinta maior empresa de transporte marítimo de contentores a nível mundial, com 421 escritórios distribuídos por 137 países. A principal linha de negócio da Hapag-Lloyd é o transporte marítimo de contentores, porém a mesma também presta serviços transporte da porta à porta. Sua posição de líder de mercado é apoiada pela sua capacidade de transporte de 1,8 milhões de toneladas e volume de negócios de €22,3 bilhões em 2021, um incremento significativo de 74% por comparação a 2020. Com o closing price de €177,6 por ação a 30 de dezembro de 2022 e um price target estimado de €207,84 para o o final de 2023, a recomendação para a Hapag-Lloyd é "Hold", tendo em conta a sua elevada exposição a ciclos económicos e o elevado perfil de risco do seu modelo de negócio, caracterizado por um segmento único. O price target foi determinado com base no modelo DCF como metodologia principal, apoiado por outros métodos absolutos e relativos, representando deste modo um potencial de valorização de 17,03%. A empresa espera demonstrar uma performance financeira sólida em 2022, devido às tarifas de frete extremamente elevadas, resultantes de interrupções na cadeia de abastecimento e elevada procura agregada de bens.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Hidden treasure: Financial models for retrofits

This paper examines financial models capable of enabling the adoption of fuel-efficiency and alternative fuel technologies that profitably reduce the fuel use and resulting greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of the shipping industry

ANN application in maritime industry : Baltic Dry Index forecasting & optimization of the number of container cranes

This dissertation is a study of dry bulk freight index forecasting and port planning, both based on Artificial Neural network application. First the dry bulk market is reviewed, and the reason for the high fluctuation of freight rates through the demand-supply mechanism is examined. Due to the volatile BDI, the traditional linear regression forecasting method cannot guarantee the performance of forecasting, but ANN overcomes this difficulty and gives better performance especially in a short time. Besides, in order to improve the performance of ANN further, wavelet is introduced to pre-process the BDI data. But when the noise (high frequency parts) is stripped, the hidden useful data may also be eliminated. So the performance of different degrees of de-noising models is evaluated, and the best one (most suitable de-noising model) is chosen to forecast BDI, which avoids over de-noising and keeps a fair ability of forecasting. In the second case study, the collected container terminals and ranked, and the throughput of each combination (different crane number) is estimated by applying a trained BP network. The BP network with DEA output is combined, simulating the efficiency of each combination. And finally, the optimal container crane number is fixed due to the highest efficiency and practical reasons. The Conclusion and Recommendation chapter gives some further advice, and many recommendations are given

Force Transducer for Inventory Management

Inventory management for small parts such as electronic components remains time consuming and costly to implement, yet required for efficient business operations. Currently there exists no solution to this problem that is both automated and inexpensive. This project provides a solution by developing an accurate and wireless force transducer for automated inventory management systems. The device works by laying on the bottom of an inventory storage container and measuring the total weight of the items. The device then wirelessly transmits this weight to a receiver where it is stored in a database. Afterwards, the database compares the most recent weight with the known weight of an item and calculates the quantity of items in stock. The project accomplished a proof of concept inventory system that accurately measures up to the weight of 1.5 grams. However the cost of the device needs to be significantly reduced to provide market feasible product. Cost improvements are discussed in the conclusion

Abstracts of Invited and Selected Papers and Organized Symposia, WAEA Annual Meetings, San Francisco, California, July 6-8, 2005

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Revenue-driven dynamic pricing and operational planning in multimodal freight transportation

Multimodal freight transport developed in the transportation sector as an alternative to unimodal transport faced with the challenges brought by the growing global demand for transporting goods. Multimodal transport is the transportation of goods using at least two modes of transport, usually door-to-door. The common transport modes include railways, maritime routes, and the roads. Multimodal transport network has an inherently complex structure with numerous stakeholders. Sea-rail multimodal freight transportation is an environmentally sustainable transport chain against road transportation; however, this environmental impact should be considered together with economic aspects in order to make multimodality more competitive in the sector. This thesis first provides a taxonomic review of multimodal transportation literature enumerating its components: data, demand, cost and time management, modal shift, collaboration, sustainability, governmental policy-setting, operational planning and modeling, revenue management and joint optimization of slot allocation and pricing strategies. Next, it proposes a dynamic pricing approach against fixed pricing to increase the revenue of multimodal transport providers. For slot allocation and cost component of dynamic pricing equation, a time-space diagram is developed to include time dimension and the sea-rail multimodal freight transportation problem is formulated as a linear network flow model. Thus, this study of operational planning and dynamic pricing strategy from multimodal transport provider's perspective provides managerial insights on the advantages of multimodality

MEASUREMENT, MODELLING AND ANALYSIS OF CONTAINER PORT PERFORMANCE

This thesis aims to develop a new framework of container port/terminal performance measurement, modelling and analysis. There is a need for a new performance measurement framework not only to meet the need of port stakeholders, but also to develop diagnostic tools capable of supporting decision-making in complex port/terminal operations in an uncertain environment. This study follows the related questions of ‘what to measure’, ‘how to measure’ and ‘how to control and improve’ container port performance. In this regard, this study proposes the development of a systematic approach to address the multi-stakeholder dimension in port performance measurement. This was achieved by integrating a multi-stakeholder dimension in a port performance measurement framework which takes into account the corresponding port performance indicators (PPIs). To this end, this study identified six dimensions of crucial interests in major (container) ports investigating stakeholders’ goals and objectives, and discussed them with port stakeholders. The six dimensions defined in this study cover the range of port activities to cope with new evolutionary changes, to measure and communicate their impacts on society, economy and environment and to be consistent with their goals. Then, through a literature review and an analysis of industrial practices the associated PPIs were selected. The semi-structured interviews were applied to assess the suitability of the potential indicators and to test the feasibility of the selected indicators. The multi-stakeholder dimension involves both quantitative and qualitative PPIs in order to reflect complexity of port/terminal business environments. This study develops two hybrid port performance measurement models: PPIs independency model and PPIs interdependency model. In the first port performance measurement model, a hybrid approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic based Evidential Reasoning (FER) for solving multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems is applied to address the challenges in port performance measurement. AHP is applied for a part of the FER to evaluate the relative importance of the selected PPIs. FER is applied for dealing with uncertainties presented in the evaluations of the selected PPIs as well as aggregation of the evaluations of PPIs and their importance. An analysis of 12 container terminals in South Korea is conducted to validate the proposed method. The second approach, a new conceptual PPI interdependency model, is developed using a hybrid approach of a Fuzzy Logic based Evidential Reasoning (FER), a Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and an Analytic Network Process (ANP). These methods are combined to deal with the inherent data uncertainties and the interdependencies among the port performance indicators (PPIs). Its novelty lies in its capability of dealing with interdependency among the performance measures as well as accommodating both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on the measures simultaneously. An analysis of 4 major container ports in South Korea is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The empirical investigations are conducted by taking the perspectives from different port stakeholders. For instance, the quantitative data (i.e. cargo and vessel operations and financial data) are collected directly from terminal operating companies and information systems/databases managed by port authorities, government and credit rating agencies. The qualitative PPIs are collected using questionnaires from three groups of terminal operators, users (i.e. shipping lines, shippers, logistics service providers and freight forwarders) and administrators (i.e. port authority and government) to assess their own associated PPIs to measure each container port/terminal performance. The empirical results indicate that the hybrid approach attempting to use quantitative modelling for dealing with the uncertainties and interdependency problems can be successfully fulfilled. The framework and its supporting method suggest an effective performance measurement tool and offer a diagnostic instrument to ports/terminals to satisfy the port stakeholders in a flexible manner. Finally, this thesis proposes a decision making framework for prioritising and selecting port performance improvement strategies. It can be achieved by the concepts of benchmarking-best practices using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) incorporating a fuzzy order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method. Based on the results obtained from the two performance approaches, the leading performer (i.e. Busan New Port) and the poor performer (i.e. Busan North Port) are analysed as real cases to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The results yielded by the framework present the ranking of strategy options in terms of their preference to different terminal operating companies (TOCs), which enables decision makers to find optimal solutions to improving performance under their own dynamic business environments

Hybrid Simulation Modelling to Support the Development of Recycling Infrastructures

An enormous amount of waste material arises internationally due to linear economic structures in which natural materials are converted into products which are discarded after use. This problem could be addressed by a shift towards a circular economy, whereby products are kept in use for longer and the material is recovered at end-of-life as a valuable resource. Recycling is therefore central to the development of a circular economy. However, recycling levels are low in many countries, often due to lack of recycling infrastructures. This research aims to support the development of waste management and recycling infrastructures by developing a model to experiment with new systems, particularly looking at the balance between centralised and delocalised systems for collection, sorting and recycling. The model utilises hybrid simulation modelling due to the accuracy and flexibility that the method provides. The model was developed using an agent-based architecture which includes three submodels to describe the process, logistics, and communication. With this architecture, the model has the capability to simulate a wide range of waste management systems. The frameworks developed in this research provide a new approach to using hybrid simulation modelling. Moreover, the frameworks can be used as guidelines for the development of future tools and models. The model was implemented into two case studies, in different geographic locations. The first case study investigated the waste management structures in Singapore and compared the performance of centralised and distributed systems. The results showed that the facility processes are more favourable in a centralised system due to economies of scale. On the other hand, the logistics perform better in a distributed system. The balance between centralised and distributed structures can be analysed using the model developed in this research, informing decision-making processes for future developments. The second case study applied the model to analyse the potential for introducing new waste management infrastructures in Indonesia, working with a company currently tasked with reducing waste mismanagement in small cities and rural areas. The results validated the model capability in experimenting with new systems and offered insights into the relative performance of centralised and distributed waste management systems. The work has provided a valuable additional dimension to the feasibility studies and contributes to the recommendations. Both case studies have demonstrated the viability and applicability of this hybrid simulation model as a tool that can be adapted to optimise waste management infrastructures in different environments.Jardine Foundatio

Warehouse Redesign for Bay State Milling Corp.

The goal of the project was to increase the efficiency of BSMs inventory management system at their Clifton Facility. The team evaluated the procedures, diagnosed the problems, and built recommendations to address their problems. Through the provided data and observation, we discovered their current inventory layout inefficient for their inventory flow system, that the current policy regarding customer practices was too lenient, and that BSM does not collect metrics regarding inventory movement. We then developed short term, intermediate and, long term recommendations to combat the problems we identified