The Vanishing Role of Money in the Macroeconomy - An Empirical Investigation Based On Spectral and Wavelet Analysis

The recent de-emphasizing of the role of money in both theoretical macroeconomics as well as in the practical conduct of monetary policy sits uneasily with the idea that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Empirical evidence has, however, been accumulating, pointing to an important leading indicator role for money and credit aggregates with respect to long term inflationary trends. Such a role could arise from monetary aggregates furnishing a nominal anchor for inflationary expectations, from their influence on the term structure of interest rates and from their affecting transactions costs in markets. Our paper attempts to assess the informational content role of money in the Indian economy by a separation of these effects across time scales and frequency bands, using the techniques of wavelet analysis and band spectral analysis respectively. Our results indicate variability of causal relations across frequency ranges and time scales, as also occasional causal reversals.Money, inflation, Cointegration, Causality, Decomposition, band spectra, wavelets

The vanishing role of money in the macroeconomy: An Empirical investigation based on spectral and wavelet analysis

The recent de-emphasizing of the role of "money" in both theoretical macroeconomics as well as in the practical conduct of monetary policy sits uneasily with the idea that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Empirical evidence has, however, been accumulating, pointing to an important leading indicator role for money and credit aggregates with respect to long term inflationary trends. Such a role could arise from monetary aggregates furnishing a nominal anchor for inflationary expectations, from their influence on the term structure of interest rates and from their affecting transactions costs in markets. Our paper attempts to assess the informational content role of money in the Indian economy by a separation of these effects across time scales and frequency bands, using the techniques of wavelet analysis and band spectral analysis respectively. Our results indicate variability of causal relations across frequency ranges and time scales, as also occasional causal reversals.money, inflation, cointegration, causality, decomposition, band spectra, wavelets

Toward a transformed system to address child abuse and family violence in New Zealand

Executive Summary Introduction The Glenn Inquiry (TGI) has contracted Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited (ESR) to bring together the relevant experience and expertise to collaboratively model a transformed system to address child abuse and neglect (CAN) and family violence (FV) in New Zealand. Our approach We have treated the task of reducing FV and CAN as a ‘wicked problem’1; that is, reducing FV and CAN is a problem that cannot be solved once and for all, and is not a matter of simply applying expert knowledge. The methods used in this project have been chosen because they are appropriate for working with wicked problems: stakeholder engagement, systems thinking and inter-disciplinary analysis. In this report, we refer to both CAN and FV. We recognise that, for some purposes, dealing with CAN requires particular strategies and treatment; however, the purpose of this report is to develop a transformed system that will reduce both CAN and other forms of FV. While the underlying causes of CAN and other FV may be considered independently, and some responses to each form of abuse will need to be particular, this report proposes a wider system of responses that will enable targeted interventions for each form of abuse. We use the term ‘family violence’ in this report in the sense it has come to be understood in Aotearoa, and is used in Te Rito: New Zealand Family Violence Prevention Strategy. In this use, FV includes intimate partner violence, child abuse and neglect, elder abuse, inter-sibling abuse and parental abuse. The project consisted of four work-streams: A review of the international and national literature on what would constitute a high performing system to address CAN and FV, including a review of New Zealand’s current approach with a focus on government legalisation, policies and initiatives; Qualitative modelling of the system dynamics associated with the existing way in which New Zealand has responded to CAN and FV; A secondary (sociological) analysis of suggestions for system improvement from the People’s Report; and, Developing a systemic model of a transformed system through collaborative workshops with sector experts

The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions

The terms nested sets, partitive frequencies, inside-outside view, and dual processes add little but confusion to our original analysis (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage 1995; 1999). The idea of nested set was introduced because of an oversight; it simply rephrases two of our equations. Representation in terms of chances, in contrast, is a novel contribution yet consistent with our computational analysis - it uses exactly the same numbers as natural frequencies. We show that non-Bayesian reasoning in children, laypeople, and physicians follows multiple rules rather than a general-purpose associative process in a vaguely specified "System 1.” It is unclear what the theory in "dual process theory” is: Unless the two processes are defined, this distinction can account post hoc for almost everything. In contrast, an ecological view of cognition helps to explain how insight is elicited from the outside (the external representation of information) and, more generally, how cognitive strategies match with environmental structure

The effects of social service contact on teenagers in England

Objective: This study investigated outcomes of social service contact during teenage years. Method: Secondary analysis was conducted of the Longitudinal Survey of Young People in England (N = 15,770), using data on reported contact with social services resulting from teenagers’ behavior. Outcomes considered were educational achievement and aspiration, mental health, and locus of control. Inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment was used to estimate the effect of social service contact. Results: There was no significant difference between those who received social service contact and those who did not for mental health outcome or aspiration to apply to university. Those with contact had lower odds of achieving good exam results or of being confident in university acceptance if sought. Results for locus of control were mixed. Conclusions: Attention is needed to the role of social services in supporting the education of young people in difficulty. Further research is needed on the outcomes of social services contact

MODELING THE OUTCOMES OF A LONGITUDINAL TIE-BREAKER REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN TO ASSESS AN IN-HOME TRAINING PROGRAM FOR FAMILIES AT RISK OF CHILD ABUSE AND NEGLECT

The current study examined the treatment effects of a newly adapted in-home training program for families at risk of child abuse and neglect. In-home interventions for child abuse and neglect have proven effective for reducing risk in low to mid-risk families, but high-risk families are underserved and have a pattern of high recidivism post-treatment. This study compared the standard training (Services as usual; SAU) to the new program, SafeCare+ (SC+), for impact on three different predictors of risk: depression, social support, and access to resources. Subjects were assigned using a tie breaker regression discontinuity design (LTBRDD) which allowed for experimental and ethical outcomes. Multilevel piecewise growth modeling was employed to capture pre-treatment, post-treatment, and follow-up data nested within subjects so that differences in treatment, assignment method, and change in time could all be modeled. Significant moderator effects of treatment on slope in two of the three outcomes, depression and social support, supported the hypothesis that SC+ recipients experience greater positive change in risk factors than SAU recipients. This significant treatment effect on slope also indicated a continued growth from post-treatment to follow-up, supporting the efficacy of SC+ to not lead to high recidivism. Due to the complexity of the design, there is not much in the literature to guide analytic procedures for LTBRDD, so future research should test, compare, and validate different analytic methods to make this design more approachable

Beaten into Submissiveness? An Investigation into the Protective Strategies used by Survivors of Domestic Abuse

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced pdf of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Interpersonal Violence following peer review. Laura Irving & Ben Chi-pun Liu, 'Beaten into Submissiveness? An investigation Into the Protective Strategies Used by Survivors of Domestic Abuse', Journal of Interpersonal Violence, first published online 14 December 2016, available online at doi: 10.1177/0886260516682520 © The Author(s) 2016 Published by SAGEThe aim of the study was to identify the prevalence and perceived helpfulness of a variety of protective strategies that were used by female survivors of domestic abuse and to explore factors that may have influenced strategy usage. Forty participants were recruited from a voluntary sector domestic abuse service, commissioned by an outer London local authority in the UK. The measurement tools used were the Intimate Partner Violence Strategies Index and the CAADA Domestic Abuse, Stalking and ‘Honour’-Based Violence (DASH) Risk Assessment Checklist. The average age was 33 (SD=7.9, range: 20-57), half reported to be of Asian ethnicity, 37.5% White and 12.5% Black or Mixed ethnicity. The average DASH score was 9.8 (SD=13.2, range: 0-18) and an average of 18 (SD=6.7, range: 1-29) protective strategies were utilised by each participant. All of the most commonly used strategies were from the Placating category. Though Safety Planning strategies were rated as the most helpful by all participants, Placating strategies were also rated as helpful by two-thirds of participants. Stepwise multiple regression showed that Placating was the only significant predictor of DASH score (β=0.375, p<0.05) and accounted for 14% of the variance of DASH score. Findings showed that women utilized a diverse range of protective strategies with placating strategies being most intensely used and rated as helpful. However, placating strategy usage could be a risk factor as opposed to a protective factor. This study has also demonstrated that greater placating strategies were used by White than South Asian women, and women who were employed used more formal strategies. This research has extended the knowledge base of protective strategies that professionals can draw from to underpin decisions and interventions when working with domestic abuse survivors.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio