10,892 research outputs found
Efficient computational strategies to learn the structure of probabilistic graphical models of cumulative phenomena
Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is
further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among
different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs,
named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural
constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model
cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive
simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local
search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regularization
methods. The assessment is performed on a large number of simulated datasets
from topologies with distinct levels of complexity, various sample size and
different rates of errors in the data. Among the main results, we show that the
introduction of Suppes' constraints dramatically improve the inference
accuracy, by reducing the solution space and providing a temporal ordering on
the variables. We also report on trade-offs among different search techniques
that can be efficiently employed in distinct experimental settings. This
manuscript is an extended version of the paper "Structural Learning of
Probabilistic Graphical Models of Cumulative Phenomena" presented at the 2018
International Conference on Computational Science
Exploiting Causal Independence in Bayesian Network Inference
A new method is proposed for exploiting causal independencies in exact
Bayesian network inference. A Bayesian network can be viewed as representing a
factorization of a joint probability into the multiplication of a set of
conditional probabilities. We present a notion of causal independence that
enables one to further factorize the conditional probabilities into a
combination of even smaller factors and consequently obtain a finer-grain
factorization of the joint probability. The new formulation of causal
independence lets us specify the conditional probability of a variable given
its parents in terms of an associative and commutative operator, such as
``or'', ``sum'' or ``max'', on the contribution of each parent. We start with a
simple algorithm VE for Bayesian network inference that, given evidence and a
query variable, uses the factorization to find the posterior distribution of
the query. We show how this algorithm can be extended to exploit causal
independence. Empirical studies, based on the CPCS networks for medical
diagnosis, show that this method is more efficient than previous methods and
allows for inference in larger networks than previous algorithms.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file
Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks: A quantitative assessment of the effect of different algorithmic schemes
One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is
the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the
huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is
NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always
feasible and approximations are often required. However, to the best of our
knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of
the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before.
For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed comparison of many
different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data
considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different
rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the performance of
different widespread scores and algorithmic approaches proposed for the
inference and the statistical pitfalls within them
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