ATM Cash demand forecasting in an Indian Bank with chaos and deep learning

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.Comment: 20 pages; 6 figures and 3 table

Evaluation of ATM Cash Demand Process Factors Applied for Forecasting with CI Models

The purpose of cash management is to optimize distribution of cash. Effective cash management brings savings to retail banks that are related to: dormant cash reduction; reduced replenishment costs; decrease of cash preparation costs; reduction of cash insurance costs. Optimization of cash distribution for retail banking in ATM and branch networks requires estimation of cash demand/supply in the future. This estimation determines overall cash management efficiency: accurate cash demand estimation reduces bank overall costs. In order to estimate cash demand in the future, cash flow forecasting must be performed that is usually based on historical cash point (ATM or branch) cash flow data. Many factors that are uncertain and may change in time influence cash supply/demand process for cash point. These may change throughout cash points and are related to location, climate, holiday, celebration day and special event (such as salary days and sale of nearby supermarket) factors. Some factors affect cash demand periodically. Periodical factors form various seasonality in cash flow process: daily (related to intraday factors throughout the day), weekly (mostly related to weekend effects), monthly (related to payday) and yearly (related to climate seasons, tourist and student arrivals, periodical celebration days such as New Year) seasons. Uncertain (aperiodic) factors are mostly related to celebration days that do not occur periodically (such as Easter), structural break factors that form long term or permanent cash flow shift (new shopping mall near cash point, shift of working hours) and some may be temporal (reconstruction of nearby building that restricts cash point reachability). Those factors form cash flow process that contains linear or nonlinear trend, mixtures of various seasonal components (intraday, weekly, monthly yearly), level shifts and heteroscedastic uncertainty. So historical data-based forecasting models need to be able to approximate historical cash demand process as accurately as possible properly evaluating these factors and perform forecasting of cash flow in the future based on estimated empirical relationship.</p

Optimization of ATM filling-in with cash

This report presents an approach for modeling daily cash demand for all ATMs in the Credit Agricole Bank network in Serbia. The approach is based on time series and regression methods for forecasting an optimal amount of money that should be placed daily in the ATMs in order to meet customers’ demands and mimimize costs of the bank. Three different types of costs were considered: cash freezing costs, transportation costs and insurance costs. The performance of the resulting forecasts were compared with results of the application that bank uses for prediciton of the time and the amount of filling-in for each ATM based on historical data

Cash flow prediction using artificial neural network and GA-EDA optimization

Cash flow models are one of the spotlights for evaluating a project. The actual data should be modeled then it could be used for the prediction process. In this paper, 996 airplane maintenance basis data are used as a database, and 119 similar data are chosen after clustering. The project is divided into 20 equal periods and first three periods are used for simulating the next point. The predicted data for each point is achieved by using of previous points from the beginning. The model is based on artificial neural network, and it is trained by three algorithms which are Genet-ic Algorithm (GA), Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA), and hybrid GA-EDA method. Two dynamic ratios are used which are dividing the population into two halves, and the other is a ratio without dividing. The ratio would give a proportion to GA and EDA models in the hybrid algorithm, and then the hybrid algorithm could model the system more accurately. For each algorithm, three main errors are calculated which are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square error (MSE), and root means square error (RMSE). The best result is achieved for hybrid GA-EDA model without dividing the population and the MAPE, RMSE, and MSE values are %0.022, 28944.59 Dollars, and 837789503.79 Dollars, respectively

Communication-Efficient Design of Learning System for Energy Demand Forecasting of Electrical Vehicles

Machine learning (ML) applications to time series energy utilization forecasting problems are a challenging assignment due to a variety of factors. Chief among these is the non-homogeneity of the energy utilization datasets and the geographical dispersion of energy consumers. Furthermore, these ML models require vast amounts of training data and communications overhead in order to develop an effective model. In this paper, we propose a communication-efficient time series forecasting model combining the most recent advancements in transformer architectures implemented across a geographically dispersed series of EV charging stations and an efficient variant of federated learning (FL) to enable distributed training. The time series prediction performance and communication overhead cost of our FL are compared against their counterpart models and shown to have parity in performance while consuming significantly lower data rates during training. Additionally, the comparison is made across EV charging as well as other time series datasets to demonstrate the flexibility of our proposed model in generalized time series prediction beyond energy demand. The source code for this work is available at https://github.com/XuJiacong/LoGTST_PSGFComment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Calendar Effects in Daily ATM Withdrawals

This paper analyses the calendar effects present in Automated Teller Machines (ATM) withdrawals of residents, using daily data for Portugal for the period from January 1st 2001 to December 31st 2008. The results presented may allow for a better understanding of consumer habits and for adjusting the original series for calendar effects. Considering the Quarterly National Accounts’ procedure of adjusting data for seasonality and working days effects, this correction is important to ensure the use of the ATM series as an instrument to nowcast private consumption.

Advances in Data Mining Knowledge Discovery and Applications

Advances in Data Mining Knowledge Discovery and Applications aims to help data miners, researchers, scholars, and PhD students who wish to apply data mining techniques. The primary contribution of this book is highlighting frontier fields and implementations of the knowledge discovery and data mining. It seems to be same things are repeated again. But in general, same approach and techniques may help us in different fields and expertise areas. This book presents knowledge discovery and data mining applications in two different sections. As known that, data mining covers areas of statistics, machine learning, data management and databases, pattern recognition, artificial intelligence, and other areas. In this book, most of the areas are covered with different data mining applications. The eighteen chapters have been classified in two parts: Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining Applications