Permit Trading and Credit Trading: A Comparison of Cap-Based and Rate-Based Emissions Trading under Perfect and Imperfect Competition

This paper compares emissions trading based on a cap on total emissions (permit trading) and on relative standards per unit of output (credit trading). Two types of market structure are considered: perfect competition and Cournot oligopoly. The e?ect of combining the two schemes is also discussed. We ?nd that output and abatement costs are higher under credit trading. Combining the two schemes may give an increase in welfare. With perfect competition, permit trading always leads to higher welfare than credit trading. With imperfect competition, credit trading may out perform permit trading. Environmental policy can lead to both entry and exit of ?rms. Entry and exit have a profound impact on the performance of the schemes, especially under imperfect competition. We ?nd that it may be impossible to implement certain levels of total industry emissions. Under credit trading several levels of the relative standard can achieve the same total level of emissions.emissions trading, entry and exit, permit allocation, tradable performance standards

Credit Market Imperfections and Persistent Unemployment

This paper develops the thesis that credit market frictions may be an important contributor to high unemployment in Europe. When a change in the technological regime necessitates the creation of new firms, this can happen relatively rapidly in the U.S. where credit markets function efficiently. In contrast, in Europe, job creation is constrained by credit market imperfections, so unemployment rises and remains high for an extended period. The data show that there has not been slower growth in the most credit dependent industries in Europe relative to the U.S., but the share of employment in these industries is lower than in the U.S.. This suggests that although credit market imperfections are unlikely to have been the major cause of the increase in European unemployment, they may have played some role in limiting European employment growth.

Do specialization benefits outweigh concentration risks in credit portfolios of German banks?

Lending specialization on certain industry sectors can have opposing effects on monitoring (including screening) abilities and on the sectoral concentration risk of a credit portfolio. In this paper, we examine in the first part if monitoring abilities of German cooperative banks and savings banks increase with their specialization on certain industry sectors. We observe that sectoral specialization generally entails better monitoring quality, particularly in the case of the cooperative banks. In the second part we measure the overall effect of better monitoring and the associated higher sectoral credit concentrations on the credit risk of the portfolio. Our empirical results suggest that specialization benefits overcompensate the impact of higher credit concentrations in the case of the cooperative banks. For savings banks, the results on the net effect depend on how specialization is measured. If specialization is gauged by Hirschman Herfindahl indices, the net effect is an increase of portfolio risk due to the higher sectoral concentration. If specialization is instead measured by distance measures, portfolio risk decreases as the impact of better monitoring abilities prevails. --bank lending,loan portfolio,diversification,expected loss,savings banks,cooperative banks,concentration,economic capital,credit risk

Disaster risk financing and contingent credit : a dynamic analysis

This paper aims to assist policy makers interested in establishing or strengthening financial strategies to increase the financial response capacity of developing country governments in the aftermath of natural disasters, while protecting their long-term fiscal balance. Contingent credit is shown to increase the ability of governments to self-insure by relaxing their short-term liquidity constraints. In many situations, contingent credit is most effectively used to facilitate risk retention for middle layers, with reserves used for bottom layers and risk transfer (for example, reinsurance) for top layers. Discussions with governments on the optimal use of contingent credit instruments as part of a sovereign catastrophe risk financing strategy can be guided by the output of a dynamic financial analysis model specifically developed to allow for the provision of contingent credit, in addition to reserves and/or reinsurance. This model is illustrated with three country case studies: agricultural production risks in India; tropical cyclone risk in Fiji; and earthquake risk in Costa Rica.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Financial Intermediation

The Investment Tax Credit: An Evaluation

Since1954, the United States government has made numerous adjustments in the tax treatment of corporate income with the aim of influencing the level and composition of fixed business investment. The effects of these reforms, principally changes in the investment tax credit, are evaluated using a macro-econometric model. We find little evidence that the investment tax credit is an effective fiscal policy tool. Changes in the credit have tended to destabilize the economy, and have yielded much less stimulus per dollar of revenue loss than has previously been assumed. The crowding out of "non-favored" investment has been sufficient to offset a large percentage of the increase in the stock of equipment resulting from the use of the credit. We are led to conclude that the reliance on the investment tax credit and other investment tax incentives should be reduced. If a credit is to be maintained, it is of the utmost importance that its effect on all sectors of the economy be considered. We analyze several possible neutrality criteria, but conclude that no simple rule can guide the optimal structuring of incentives.

The theoretical derivation of credit market segmentation as the result of a free market process

Information asymmetries make it difficult for banks to assess accurately whether specific entrepreneurs are able and/or willing to repay their loans. This leads to implicit interest rate ceilings, i.e. banks "refuse" to increase their interest rates beyond this ceiling as this would lower their net returns. Although the maximum interest rate increases as the size of enterprises decreases, such ceilings nonetheless constrain the banks’ ability to set interest rates at a level that would enable them to cover costs. If transaction costs are high, the total costs associated with granting small and medium-sized loans will exceed the maximum average return which the banks can earn by issuing such loans. For this reason, banks do not lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, and, as a consequence, these businesses have no access to formal sector loans. Because micro and small enterprises have a very high RoI, it is worthwhile for them to rely on expensive informal loans to finance their operations, at least until they reach a certain size. Once they have reached this size, however, it does not make economic sense for them to continue taking out informal credits, and thus they face a growth constraint imposed by the credit market. Medium-sized enterprises earn a lower RoI than small ones, which is why borrowing in the informal credit market is not a worthwhile option for them. Moreover, they do not have access to credit from formal financial institutions, and are thus excluded from obtaining any kind of financing in either of the two credit markets. As the result of free, unregulated market forces we get a stable equilibrium in which the credit market is segmented into an informal (small loan) segment, a formal (large loan) segment and, in between, a "non-market" (medium loan) segment

NAFTA and Mexico's Economic Performance

Mexico, a prominent liberalizer, failed to attain stellar gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 1990s, and since 2001 its GDP and exports have stagnated. In this paper we argue that the lack of spectacular growth in Mexico cannot be blamed on either the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or the other reforms that were implemented, but on the lack of further judicial and structural reform after 1995. In fact, the benefits of liberalization can be seen in the extraordinary growth of exports and foreign domestic investment (FDI). The key to the Mexican puzzle lies in Mexico’s response to crisis: a deterioration in contract enforceability and an increase in nonperforming loans. As a result, the credit crunch in Mexico has been far deeper and far more protracted than in the typical developing country. The credit crunch has hit the nontradables sector especially hard and has generated bottlenecks, which have blocked growth in the tradables sector and have contributed to the recent fall in exports.boom-bust cycles, currency mismatch, lending booms, real exchange rate, FDI, credit market imperfections and volatility

Access to credit and the size of the formal sector

This paper studies the link between credit conditions and formalization in Brazil. Over the last decade, Brazil has experienced a large increase in the level of credit and the rate of formalization. these changes are linked to a reduction in the cost of credit and policy reforms oriented toward improving the efficiency of the financial sector. The paper develops a model with endogenous formal and informal sectors to evaluate how much of the change in corporate credit and the size of the formal sector can be attributed to a reduction in financial intermediation costs. The model predicts that the reduction in intermediation costs generates an increase in the credit-to-output ratio and the fraction of formal workers, in line with the data. By affecting the allocation of capital and the entry and exit rates, the change in credit conditions has important implications for the firm size distribution and aggregate productivity

The effects of interbank networks on efficiency and stability in a macroeconomic agent-based model

We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model that consists of firms, banks, unions and households who interact on labour, goods, credit and interbank markets. The model endogenises pricing decisions by firms, wage setting by unions and interest rate setting by banks on both firm and interbank lending. Banks also set leverage targets and precautionary liquidity buffers on the basis of internal risk models. Our model produces endogenous fluctuations driven by the pricing behaviour of firms and the wage setting behaviour of unions. Fluctuations lead to loan defaults which are exacerbated as lenders reduce lending and charge higher interest rates, inducing a credit crunch. We also study how making the inter-banking network more connected affects the key outcomes of the economy and find that while the flow of funds from surplus banks to firms can be increased, the latter effect is soon dominated by increasing instability in the real sector as firms default at higher rates. While the banking sector experiences fewer defaults as a whole, losses on the interbank market increase as a source of bank defaults

On the Incentive Effects of Municipal Tax Credits

Abstract. This paper analyzes a specific municipal tax credit program that has been passed by the City of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The program allows 50% of the net private investment in eligible conservation work on a historic building to be designated as a credit against future municipal tax liabilities (property, business and amusement) on the structure and land on which it is situated. The credit is non-refundable and expires after 10 years. This article reviews the economic logic underlying the program from the point of view of an investor. Two approaches are considered, one where the increased expenditure increases the quantity of service flow, the other where it results in an increase in the quality of service flow. It is shown how the investor’s expected tax liability effects the amount of expenditure undertaken. Specifically, the proposal introduces a nonlinear subsidy schedule which limits the total amount of the investor’s tax liability that can be subsidized over the 10 year period. It is demonstrated that the program is quite general and could be used by local governments to encourage spending in other areas, for example, energy conservation or general housing renewal.Municipal Tax Credits