Is the impact of social distancing on coronavirus growth rates effective across different settings? A non-parametric and local regression approach to test and compare the‘doubling rate

Epidemiologists use mathematical models to predict epidemic trends, and these results are inherently uncertain when parameters are unknown or changing. In other contexts, such as climate, modellers use multi-model ensembles to inform their decision-making: when forecasts align, modellers can be more certain. This paper looks at a sub-set of alternative epidemiological models that focus on the ‘doubling rate’, and it cautions against relying on the method proposed in (Pike & Saini, 2020) which relies on the data for China to calculate future trajectories. Such approaches are subject to overfitting, a common problem in financial and economic modelling. This paper finds, surprisingly, that the data for China are hyper-exponential, not exponential. Instead, this paper proposes using non-parametric methods, and local regression methods, to support epidemiologists and policymakers in assessing the relative effectiveness of social distancing across multiple settings. All works contained herein are provided free to use worldwide by the author under CC BY 2.0

The Spread of COVID-19 in Germany - An Application of the SIRDH Model

The paper studies the current COVID-19 pandemic by applying an adapted epidemiologic model, where each individual is in one of the five states “susceptible”, “infected”, “removed”, “immune healthy” or “dead”. We extend the basic model with time-invariant transition rates between these states by allowing for time-dependent infection rates as a consequence of lockdowns and social distancing policies as well as for time-dependent mortality rates as a result of changing infection patterns. Our model proves to be appropriate to calibrate and simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Germany between January and October 2020. We provide deeper insights about some key indicators such as the reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the development of the infection and mortality rates

Initial impacts of global risk mitigation measures taken during the combatting of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper presents an analysis of risk mitigation measures taken by countries around the world facing the current COVID-19 outbreak. In light of the current pandemic the authors collated and clustered (using harmonised terminology) the risk mitigation measures taken around the globe in the combat to contain, and since March 11 2020, to limiting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus known to cause the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This overview gathers lessons learnt, provides an update on the current knowledge for authorities, sectors and first responders on the effectiveness and may allow enhanced prevention, preparedness and response for future outbreaks. Various measures such as mobility restrictions, physical distancing, hygienic measures, socio economic restrictions, communication and international support mechanisms have been clustered and are reviewed in terms of the nature of the actions taken and their qualitative early-perceived impact. At the time of writing, it is still too premature to express the quantitative effectiveness of each risk mitigation cluster, but it seems that the best mitigation results are reported when applying a combination of voluntary and enforceable measures.JRC.E.7-Knowledge for Security and Migratio

Impact of Coronavirus Disease on Nigeria Socio-Economic Development and Education Sector Response

Coronavirus disease broke out in December 2019 in Wuham, China.  It was then thought the disease was one of the viral diseases affecting China hence “China disease” and little did any know that it soon become a global disease (pandemic) that would shake the entire world. Thus, the disease has had debilitating impact on people and the negative effects on economic well-being of nations, health expenditure, household incomes and education are unquantifiable. The situation was compounded by government’s measures of the lockdown, restrictions on internal and international travels, boarder closures, and closure of schools for almost six months which is the longest closure in the history of Nigeria amongst others to curtail the spread. This paper therefore examined the impact of the pandemic on Nigeria socio-economic development and education sector response. Based on findings and observations, the paper recommends that governments, parents, School Based Management Committees should support the schools with facilities to observe the safety measures and Covid-19 protocols since there is no end to the spread of the disease yet while permanent drug and vaccine discovered are hitherto not circulated around the world. Keywords: Impact, Coronavirus, Socio-economic, Development, Education, Response DOI: 10.7176/JEP/12-6-08 Publication date: February 28th 202

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on the world

The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the topic of the COVID-19 pandemic and to connect it with other issues raised in this book. The chapter presents the SARS-CoV-2 and the chronology of its spread around the world. It also draws attention to the numerous social and economic implications of the pandemic as well as estimate the social costs of the pandemic. It also enumerates the existing COVID-19 databases updated daily