Simulation modelling and strategic change : creating the sustainable enterprise

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Toward Smart Moving Target Defense for Linux Container Resiliency

This paper presents ESCAPE, an informed moving target defense mechanism for cloud containers. ESCAPE models the interaction between attackers and their target containers as a "predator searching for a prey" search game. Live migration of Linux-containers (prey) is used to avoid attacks (predator) and failures. The entire process is guided by a novel host-based behavior-monitoring system that seamlessly monitors containers for indications of intrusions and attacks. To evaluate ESCAPE effectiveness, we simulated the attack avoidance process based on a mathematical model mimicking the prey-vs-predator search game. Simulation results show high container survival probabilities with minimal added overhead.Comment: Published version is available on IEEE Xplore at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/779685

Evolution of Supply Chain Collaboration: Implications for the Role of Knowledge

Increasingly, research across many disciplines has recognized the shortcomings of the traditional “integration prescription” for inter-organizational knowledge management. This research conducts several simulation experiments to study the effects of different rates of product change, different demand environments, and different economies of scale on the level of integration between firms at different levels in the supply chain. The underlying paradigm shifts from a static, steady state view to a dynamic, complex adaptive systems and knowledge-based view of supply chain networks. Several research propositions are presented that use the role of knowledge in the supply chain to provide predictive power for how supply chain collaborations or integration should evolve. Suggestions and implications are suggested for managerial and research purposes

An evolutionary complex systems decision-support tool for the management of operations

Purpose - The purpose of this is to add both to the development of complex systems thinking in the subject area of operations and production management and to the limited number of applications of computational models and simulations from the science of complex systems. The latter potentially offer helpful decision-support tools for operations and production managers. Design/methodology/approach - A mechanical engineering firm was used as a case study where a combined qualitative and quantitative methodological approach was employed to extract the required data from four senior managers. Company performance measures as well as firm technologies, practices and policies, and their relation and interaction with one another, were elicited. The data were subjected to an evolutionary complex systems (ECS) model resulting in a series of simulations. Findings - The findings highlighted the effects of the diversity in management decision making on the firm's evolutionary trajectory. The CEO appeared to have the most balanced view of the firm, closely followed by the marketing and research and development managers. The manufacturing manager's responses led to the most extreme evolutionary trajectory where the integrity of the entire firm came into question particularly when considering how employees were utilised. Research limitations/implications - By drawing directly from the opinions and views of managers, rather than from logical "if-then" rules and averaged mathematical representations of agents that characterise agent-based and other self-organisational models, this work builds on previous applications by capturing a micro-level description of diversity that has been problematical both in theory and application. Practical implications - This approach can be used as a decision-support tool for operations and other managers providing a forum with which to explore: the strengths, weaknesses and consequences of different decision-making capacities within the firm; the introduction of new manufacturing technologies, practices and policies; and the different evolutionary trajectories that a firm can take. Originality/value - With the inclusion of "micro-diversity", ECS modelling moves beyond the self-organisational models that populate the literature but has not as yet produced a great many practical simulation results. This work is a step in that direction

Risk Management for Ag Families: An Extension Model for Improving Family Business Success

A risky business environment for agricultural producers coupled with human risk elements unique to family businesses, points to the need for extension programs that integrate traditional risk management concepts into curriculums focused on the potentially unique educational needs of family farm management teams. Results in this paper indicate that a multi-state, grant funded program entitled "Risk Management for Ag Families" had impact and provides a model that traditional risk management education programs could benefit from.Risk and Uncertainty, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Agricultural Decision Analysis: The Causal Challenge

The paper sets out the agenda for reviewing models of decision making in the context of farmers’ use of seasonal climate forecasting. Such forecasts have been framed in terms of shifts in cumulative distribution functions of yields or gross margins. Typically they have been applied to choices about crop variety, crop type, time of planting or level of fertiliser application. Fundamental questions are: how do farmers conceptualise and make use of the information contained in seasonal climate forecasts? Do our models of decision making represent well the way in which these decisions are made?decision making, farmers, seasonal climate forecasts, conceptualisation, review,