Solution methods and bounds for two-stage risk-neutral and multistage risk-averse stochastic mixed-integer programs with applications in energy and manufacturing

This dissertation presents an integrated method for solving stochastic mixed-integer programs, develops a lower bounding approach for multistage risk-averse stochastic mixed-integer programs, and proposes an optimization formulation for mixed-model assembly line sequencing (MMALS) problems. It is well known that a stochastic mixed-integer program is difficult to solve due to its non-convexity and stochastic factors. The scenario decomposition algorithms display computational advantage when dealing with a large number of possible realizations of uncertainties, but each has its own advantages and disadvantages. This dissertation presents a solution method for solving large-scale stochastic mixed-integer programs that integrates two scenario-decomposition algorithms: Progressive Hedging (PH) and Dual Decomposition (DD). In this integrated method, fast progress in early iterations of PH speeds up the convergence of DD to an exact solution. In many applications, the decision makers are risk-averse and are more concerned with large losses in the worst scenarios than with average performance. The PH algorithm can serve as a time-efficient heuristic for risk-averse stochastic mixed-integer programs with many scenarios, but the scenario reformulation for time consistent multistage risk-averse models does not exist. This dissertation develops a scenario-decomposed version of time consistent multistage risk-averse programs, and proposes a lower bounding approach that can assess the quality of PH solutions and thus identify whether the PH algorithm is able to find near-optimal solutions within a reasonable amount of time. The existing optimization formulations for MMALS problems do not consider many real-world uncertainty factors such as timely part delivery and material quality. In addition, real-time sequencing decisions are required to deal with inevitable disruptions. This dissertation formulates a multistage stochastic optimization problem with part availability uncertainty. A risk-averse model is further developed to guarantee customers’ satisfaction regarding on-time performance. Computational studies show that the integration of PH helps DD to reduce the run-time significantly, and the lower bounding approach can obtain convergent and tight lower bounds to help PH evaluate quality of solutions. The PH algorithm and the lower bounding approach also help the proposed MMALS formulation to make real-time sequencing decisions

Convex approximations for two-stage mixed-integer mean-risk recourse models with conditional value-at-risk

In traditional two-stage mixed-integer recourse models, the expected value of the total costs is minimized. In order to address risk-averse attitudes of decision makers, we consider a weighted mean-risk objective instead. Conditional value-at-risk is used as our risk measure. Integrality conditions on decision variables make the model non-convex and hence, hard to solve. To tackle this problem, we derive convex approximation models and corresponding error bounds, that depend on the total variations of the density functions of the random right-hand side variables in the model. We show that the error bounds converge to zero if these total variations go to zero. In addition, for the special cases of totally unimodular and simple integer recourse models we derive sharper error bounds.</p

A mean-risk mixed integer nonlinear program for transportation network protection

This paper focuses on transportation network protection to hedge against extreme events such as earthquakes. Traditional two-stage stochastic programming has been widely adopted to obtain solutions under a risk-neutral preference through the use of expectations in the recourse function. In reality, decision makers hold different risk preferences. We develop a mean-risk two-stage stochastic programming model that allows for greater flexibility in handling risk preferences when allocating limited resources. In particular, the first stage minimizes the retrofitting cost by making strategic retrofit decisions whereas the second stage minimizes the travel cost. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is included as the risk measure for the total system cost. The two-stage model is equivalent to a nonconvex mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP). To solve this model using the Generalized Benders Decomposition (GBD) method, we derive a convex reformulation of the second-stage problem to overcome algorithmic challenges embedded in the non-convexity, nonlinearity, and non-separability of first- and second-stage variables. The model is used for developing retrofit strategies for networked highway bridges, which is one of the research areas that can significantly benefit from mean-risk models. We first justify the model using a hypothetical nine-node network. Then we evaluate our decomposition algorithm by applying the model to the Sioux Falls network, which is a large-scale benchmark network in the transportation research community. The effects of the chosen risk measure and critical parameters on optimal solutions are empirically explored

Managing Operational Efficiency And Health Outcomes At Outpatient Clinics Through Effective Scheduling

A variety of studies have documented the substantial deficiencies in the quality of health care delivered across the United States. Attempts to reform the United States health care system in the 1980s and 1990s were inspired by the system\u27s inability to adequately provide access, ensure quality, and restrain costs, but these efforts had limited success. In the era of managed care, access, quality, and costs are still challenges, and medical professionals are increasingly dissatisfied. In recent years, appointment scheduling in outpatient clinics has attracted much attention in health care delivery systems. Increase in demand for health care services as well as health care costs are the most important reasons and motivations for health care decision makers to improve health care systems. The goals of health care systems include patient satisfaction as well as system utilization. Historically, less attention was given to patient satisfaction compared to system utilization and conveniences of care providers. Recently, health care systems have started setting goals regarding patient satisfaction and improving the performance of the health system by providing timely and appropriate health care delivery. In this study we discuss methods for improving patient flow through outpatient clinics considering effective appointment scheduling policies by applying two-stage Stochastic Mixed-Integer Linear Program Model (two-stage SMILP) approaches. Goal is to improve the following patient flow metrics: direct wait time (clinic wait time) and indirect wait time considering patient’s no-show behavior, stochastic server, follow-up surgery appointments, and overbooking. The research seeks to develop two models: 1) a method to optimize the (weekly) scheduling pattern for individual providers that would be updated at regular intervals (e.g., quarterly or annually) based on the type and mix of services rendered and 2) a method for dynamically scheduling patients using the weekly scheduling pattern. Scheduling templates will entertain the possibility of arranging multiple appointments at once. The aim is to increase throughput per session while providing timely care, continuity of care, and overall patient satisfaction as well as equity of resource utilization. First, we use risk-neutral two-stage stochastic programming model where the objective function considers the expected value as a performance criterion in the selection of random variables like total waiting times and next, we expand the model formulation to mean-risk two-stage stochastic programming in which we investigate the effect of considering a risk measure in the model. We apply Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure for the two-stage stochastic programming model. Results from testing our models using data inspired by real-world OBGYN clinics suggest that the proposed formulations can improve patient satisfaction through reduced direct and indirect waiting times without compromising provider utilization

A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems

This paper presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealingalternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.Peer reviewe

Resilience-oriented design and proactive preparedness of electrical distribution system

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and ice storms, pose a top threat to power distribution systems as their frequency and severity increase over time. Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, have highlighted the importance and urgency to enhance the resilience of electric power distribution systems. The goal of enhancing the resilience of distribution systems against extreme weather events can be fulfilled through upgrading and operating measures. This work focuses on investigating the impacts of upgrading measures and preventive operational measures on distribution system resilience. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a multi-timescale optimization framework to provide some actionable resilience-enhancing strategies for utility companies to harden/upgrade power distribution systems in the long-term and do proactive preparation management in the short-term. In the long-term resilience-oriented design (ROD) of distribution system, the main challenges are i) modeling the spatio-temporal correlation among ROD decisions and uncertainties, ii) capturing the entire failure-recovery-cost process, and iii) solving the resultant large-scale mixed-integer stochastic problem efficiently. To deal with these challenges, we propose a hybrid stochastic process with a deterministic casual structure to model the spatio-temporal correlations of uncertainties. A new two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program (MILP) is formulated to capture the impacts of ROD decisions and uncertainties on system responses to extreme weather events. The objective is to minimize the ROD investment cost in the first stage and the expected costs of loss of load, DG operation, and damage repairs in the second stage. A dual decomposition (DD) algorithm with branch-and-bound is developed to solve the proposed model with binary variables in both stages. Case studies on the IEEE 123-bus test feeder have shown the proposed approach can improve the system resilience at minimum costs. For an upcoming extreme weather event, we develop a pre-event proactive energy management and preparation strategy such that flexible resources can be prepared in advance. In order to explicitly materialize the trade-off between the pre-event resource allocation cost and the damage loss risk associated with an event, the strategy is modeled a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) and Conditional Value at-Risk (CVaR). The progressive algorithm is used to solve the proposed model and obtain the optimal proactive energy management and preparation strategy. Numerical studies on the modified IEEE 123-bus test feeder show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to improve the system resilience at different risk levels

On the Value of Multistage Risk-Averse Stochastic Facility Location With or Without Prioritization

We consider a multiperiod stochastic capacitated facility location problem under uncertain demand and budget in each period. Using a scenario tree representation of the uncertainties, we formulate a multistage stochastic integer program to dynamically locate facilities in each period and compare it with a two-stage approach that determines the facility locations up front. In the multistage model, in each stage, a decision maker optimizes facility locations and recourse flows from open facilities to demand sites, to minimize certain risk measures of the cost associated with current facility location and shipment decisions. When the budget is also uncertain, a popular modeling framework is to prioritize the candidate sites. In the two-stage model, the priority list is decided in advance and fixed through all periods, while in the multistage model, the priority list can change adaptively. In each period, the decision maker follows the priority list to open facilities according to the realized budget, and optimizes recourse flows given the realized demand. Using expected conditional risk measures (ECRMs), we derive tight lower bounds for the gaps between the optimal objective values of risk-averse multistage models and their two-stage counterparts in both settings with and without prioritization. Moreover, we propose two approximation algorithms to efficiently solve risk-averse two-stage and multistage models without prioritization, which are asymptotically optimal under an expanding market assumption. We also design a set of super-valid inequalities for risk-averse two-stage and multistage stochastic programs with prioritization to reduce the computational time. We conduct numerical studies using both randomly generated and real-world instances with diverse sizes, to demonstrate the tightness of the analytical bounds and efficacy of the approximation algorithms and prioritization cuts