Boosting Ride Sharing With Alternative Destinations

People living in highly populated cities increasingly experience decreased quality of life due to pollution and traffic congestion. With the objective of reducing the number of circulating vehicles, we investigate a novel approach to boost ride-sharing opportunities based on the knowledge of the human activities behind individual mobility demands. We observe that in many cases the activity motivating the use of a private car (e.g., going to a shopping mall) can be performed in many different places. Therefore, when there is the possibility of sharing a ride, people having a pro-environment behavior or interested in saving money can accept to fulfill their needs at an alternative destination. We thus propose activity-based ride matching (ABRM), an algorithm aimed at matching ride requests with ride offers, possibly reaching alternative destinations where the intended activity can be performed. By analyzing two large mobility datasets extracted from a popular social network, we show that our approach could largely impact urban mobility by resulting in an increase up to 54.69% of ride-sharing opportunities with respect to a traditional destination-oriented approach. Due to the high number of ride possibilities found by ABRM, we introduce and assess a subsequent ranking step to provide the user with the top-k most relevant rides only. We discuss how ABRM parameters affect the fraction of car rides that can be saved and how the ranking function can be tuned to enforce pro-environment behaviors. This is the a pre-print version. Full version is available at the IEEE Transactions in Intelligent Transportations Systems https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/837006

An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Revealing the real-world CO2 emission reduction of ridesplitting and its determinants based on machine learning

Ridesplitting, which is a form of pooled ridesourcing service, has great potential to alleviate the negative impacts of ridesourcing on the environment. However, most existing studies only explored its theoretical environmental benefits based on optimization models and simulations. To put into practice, this study aims to reveal the real-world emission reduction of ridesplitting and its determinants based on the observed data of ridesourcing in Chengdu, China. Integrating the trip data with the COPERT model, this study calculates the CO2 emissions of shared rides (ridesplitting) and their substituted single rides (regular ridesourcing) to estimate the CO2 emission reduction of each ridesplitting trip. The results show that not all ridesplitting trips reduce emissions from ridesourcing in the real world. The CO2 emission reduction rate of ridesplitting varies from trip to trip, averaging at 43.15g/km. Then, the interpretable machine learning models, gradient boosting machines, are applied to explore the relationship between the CO2 emission reduction rate of ridesplitting and its determinants. Based on the SHapley Additive exPlanations method, the overlap rate and detour rate of shared rides are identified to be the most important factors that determine the CO2 emission reduction rate of ridesplitting. Increasing the overlap rate, the number of shared rides, average speed, and ride distance ratio and decreasing the detour rate, actual trip distance, ride distance gap can increase the CO2 emission reduction rate of ridesplitting. In addition, nonlinear effects and interactions of several key factors are examined through the partial dependence plots. This study provides a scientific method for the government and ridesourcing companies to better assess and optimize the environmental benefits of ridesplitting.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

Public Bicycles: How the Concept of Human-Oriented “Mobility Sharing” Technology Can Influence Travel Behaviour Norms and Reshape Design Education

Although at the moment an excess of 500 public bicycle schemes of variable sizes operate in almost 50 countries worldwide, the impact of their use on travel behaviour and modal change have neither been studied extensively nor have been understood thoroughly as yet. This work negotiates the initial stages of an international research scheme that means to look into the attitudes and system user experiences (the latter only when it is applicable) that could define the design (or re-design) criteria for three public bicycle schemes in three cities of different size and culture. These systems are currently on three dissimilar operational phases spanning from bidding for funding to actually having a fairly successful system already in place. As a matter of fact, the choice of the three case study cities represent an effort to frame the dynamics of the bike-sharing phenomenon in a micro-scale (Drama, Greece, 50.000 residents), meso-scale (Gothenburg, Sweden, 500.000 residents) and mega-scale (Shanghai, China, 23 million residents) looking also into the attitude-shaping process before and after the implementation of a scheme. This project’s didactic role is a twin one; it aims to reinforce education practice on sustainable mobilities design by using student projects as an apparatus for supporting research and promoting urban change in real societal terms and subsequently to integrate the findings of the research into future postgraduate and undergraduate course material. Thus, bike-sharing design, for the means of this paper, aims to serve as an academic platform for integrating and synchronising research and education by promoting a balanced and timely development of technological opportunities that capture the mobility needs of tomorrow

Designing an On-Demand Dynamic Crowdshipping Model and Evaluating its Ability to Serve Local Retail Delivery in New York City

Nowadays city mobility is challenging, mainly in populated metropolitan areas. Growing commute demands, increase in the number of for-hire vehicles, enormous escalation in several intra-city deliveries and limited infrastructure (road capacities), all contribute to mobility challenges. These challenges typically have significant impacts on residents’ quality-of-life particularly from an economic and environmental perspective. Decision-makers have to optimize transportation resources to minimize the system externalities (especially in large-scale metropolitan areas). This thesis focus on the intra-city mobility problems experienced by travelers (in the form of congestion and imbalance taxi resources) and businesses (in the form of last-mile delivery), while taking into consideration a measurement of potential adoption by citizens (in the form of a survey). To find solutions for this mobility problem this dissertation proposes three distinct and complementary methodological studies. First, taxi demand is predicted by employing a deep learning approach that leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, trained over publicly available New York City taxi trip data. Taxi pickup data are binned based on geospatial and temporal informational tags, which are then clustered using a technique inspired by Principal Component Analysis. The spatiotemporal distribution of the taxi pickup demand is studied within short-term periods (for the next hour) as well as long-term periods (for the next 48 hours) within each data cluster. The performance and robustness of the LSTM model are evaluated through a comparison with Adaptive Boosting Regression and Decision Tree Regression models fitted to the same datasets. On the next study, an On-Demand Dynamic Crowdshipping system is designed to utilize excess transport capacity to serve parcel delivery tasks and passengers collectively. This method is general and could be expanded and used for all types of public transportation modes depending upon the availability of data. This system is evaluated for the case study of New York City and to assess the impacts of the crowdshipping system (by using taxis as carriers) on trip cost, vehicle miles traveled, and people travel behavior. Finally, a Stated Preference (SP) survey is presented, designed to collect information about people’s willingness to participate in a crowdshipping system. The survey is analyzed to determine the essential attributes and evaluate the likelihood of individuals participating in the service either as requesters or as carriers. The survey collects information on the preferences and important attributes of New York citizens, describing what segments of the population are willing to participate in a crowdshipping system. While the transportation problems are complex and approximations had to be done within the studies to achieve progress, this dissertation provides a comprehensive way to model and understand the potential impact of efficient utilization of existing resources on transportation systems. Generally, this study offer insights to decisions makers and academics about potential areas of opportunity and methodologies to optimize the transportation system of densely populated areas. This dissertation offers methods that can optimize taxi distribution based on the demand, optimize costs for retail delivery, while providing additional income for individuals. It also provides valuable insights for decision makers in terms of collecting population opinion about the service and analyzing the likelihood of participating in the service. The analysis provides an initial foundation for future modeling and assessment of crowdshipping

Promoting Intermodal Connectivity at California’s High Speed Rail Stations

High-speed rail (HSR) has emerged as one of the most revolutionary and transformative transportation technologies, having a profound impact on urban-regional accessibility and inter-city travel across Europe, Japan, and more recently China and other Asian countries. One of HSR’s biggest advantages over air travel is that it offers passengers a one-seat ride into the center of major cities, eliminating time-consuming airport transfers and wait times, and providing ample opportunities for intermodal transfers at these locales. Thus, HSR passengers are typically able to arrive at stations that are only a short walk away from central business districts and major tourist attractions, without experiencing any of the stress that car drivers often experience in negotiating such highly congested environments. Such an approach requires a high level of coordination and planning of the infrastructural and spatial aspects of the HSR service, and a high degree of intermodal connectivity. But what key elements can help the US high-speed rail system blend successfully with other existing rail and transit services? That question is critically important now that high-speed rail is under construction in California. The study seeks to understand the requirements for high levels of connectivity and spatial and operational integration of HSR stations and offer recommendations for seamless, and convenient integrated service in California intercity rail/HSR stations. The study draws data from a review of the literature on the connectivity, intermodality, and spatial and operational integration of transit systems; a survey of 26 high-speed rail experts from six different European countries; and an in-depth look of the German and Spanish HSR systems and some of their stations, which are deemed as exemplary models of station connectivity. The study offers recommendations on how to enhance both the spatial and the operational connectivity of high-speed rail systems giving emphasis on four spatial zones: the station, the station neighborhood, the municipality at large, and the region

Data-Driven Framework for Understanding & Modeling Ride-Sourcing Transportation Systems

Ride-sourcing transportation services offered by transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft are disrupting the transportation landscape. The growing demand on these services, along with their potential short and long-term impacts on the environment, society, and infrastructure emphasize the need to further understand the ride-sourcing system. There were no sufficient data to fully understand the system and integrate it within regional multimodal transportation frameworks. This can be attributed to commercial and competition reasons, given the technology-enabled and innovative nature of the system. Recently, in 2019, the City of Chicago the released an extensive and complete ride-sourcing trip-level data for all trips made within the city since November 1, 2018. The data comprises the trip ends (pick-up and drop-off locations), trip timestamps, trip length and duration, fare including tipping amounts, and whether the trip was authorized to be shared (pooled) with another passenger or not. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive data-driven framework to understand and model the system using this data from Chicago, in a reproducible and transferable fashion. Using data fusion approach, sociodemographic, economic, parking supply, transit availability and accessibility, built environment and crime data are collected from open sources to develop this framework. The framework is predicated on three pillars of analytics: (1) explorative and descriptive analytics, (2) diagnostic analytics, and (3) predictive analytics. The dissertation research framework also provides a guide on the key spatial and behavioral explanatory variables shaping the utility of the mode, driving the demand, and governing the interdependencies between the demand’s willingness to share and surge price. Thus, the key findings can be readily challenged, verified, and utilized in different geographies. In the explorative and descriptive analytics, the ride-sourcing system’s spatial and temporal dimensions of the system are analyzed to achieve two objectives: (1) explore, reveal, and assess the significance of spatial effects, i.e., spatial dependence and heterogeneity, in the system behavior, and (2) develop a behavioral market segmentation and trend mining of the willingness to share. This is linked to the diagnostic analytics layer, as the revealed spatial effects motivates the adoption of spatial econometric models to analytically identify the ride-sourcing system determinants. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is used as a benchmark model against spatial error model (SEM), spatially lagged X (SLX) model, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Two innovative modeling constructs are introduced deal with the ride-sourcing system’s spatial effects and multicollinearity: (1) Calibrated Spatially Lagged X Ridge Model (CSLXR) and Calibrated Geographically Weighted Ridge Regression (CGWRR) in the diagnostic analytics layer. The identified determinants in the diagnostic analytics layer are then fed into the predictive analytics one to develop an interpretable machine learning (ML) modeling framework. The system’s annual average weekday origin-destination (AAWD OD) flow is modeled using the following state-of-the-art ML models: (1) Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Regression, (2) Support Vector Machines Regression (SVR), and (3) Tree-based ensemble learning methods, i.e., Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The innovative modeling construct of CGWRR developed in the diagnostic analytics is then validated in a predictive context and is found to outperform the state-of-the-art ML models in terms of testing score of 0.914, in comparison to 0.906 for XGBoost, 0.84 for RFR, 0.89 for SVR, and 0.86 for MLP. The CGWRR exhibits outperformance as well in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean average error (MAE). The findings of this dissertation partially bridge the gap between the practice and the research on ride-sourcing transportation systems understanding and integration. The empirical findings made in the descriptive and explorative analytics can be further utilized by regional agencies to fill practice and policymaking gaps on regulating ride-sourcing services using corridor or cordon toll, optimally allocating standing areas to minimize deadheading, especially during off-peak periods, and promoting the ride-share willingness in disadvantage communities. The CGWRR provides a reliable modeling and simulation tool to researchers and practitioners to integrate the ride-sourcing system in multimodal transportation modeling frameworks, simulation testbed for testing long-range impacts of policies on ride-sourcing, like improved transit supply, congestions pricing, or increased parking rates, and to plan ahead for similar futuristic transportation modes, like the shared autonomous vehicles

A Machine Learning Recommender Model for Ride Sharing Based on Rider Characteristics and User Threshold Time

In the present age, human life is prospering incredibly due to the 4th Industrial Revolution or The Age of Digitization and Computing. The ubiquitous availability of the Internet and advanced computing systems have resulted in the rapid development of smart cities. From connected devices to live vehicle tracking, technology is taking the field of transportation to a new level. An essential part of the transportation domain in smart cities is Ride Sharing. It is an excellent solution to issues like pollution, traffic, and the rapid consumption of fuel. Even though Ride Sharing has several benefits, the current usage is significantly low due to limitations like social barriers and long rider waiting times. The thesis proposes a novel Ride Sharing model with two matching layers to eliminate most of the observed issues in the existing Ride Sharing applications like UberPool and LyftLine. The first matching layer matches riders based on specific human characteristics, and the second matching layer provides riders the option to restrict the waiting time by using personalized threshold time. At the end of trips, the system collects user feedback according to five characteristics. Then, at most, two main characteristics that are the most important to riders are determined based on the collected feedback. The registered characteristics and the two main determined characteristics are fed as the inputs to a Machine Learning classification module. For newly registering users, the module predicts the two main characteristics of riders, and that assists in matching with other riders having similar determined characteristics. The thesis includes subjecting the proposed model to an extensive simulation for measuring system efficiency. The model simulations have utilized the real-time New York City Cab traffic data with real-traffic conditions using Google Maps Application Programming Interface (API). Results indicate that the proposed Ride Sharing model is feasible, and efficient as the number of riders increases while maintaining the rider threshold time. The expected outcome of the thesis is to help service providers increase the usage of Ride Sharing, complete the pool for the maximum number of trips in minimal time and perform maximum rider matches based on similar characteristics, thus providing an energy-efficient and a social platform for Ride Sharing

Hourly Demand Prediction of Shared Mobility Ridership

This research focuses on predicting the hourly number of bikes needed using Citi bike data. Micro mobility is the new trend that serves the transportation sector in any city. With the development of technology and introduction of new modes, comes new challenges. Bike sharing is the most developed and standard micro mobility device with extensive data sources. In this research we introduce the rebalancing bike sharing problem, which is very recent and interesting problem. Bikes are being ridden from a station and returned to another, not necessarily the same one of departure, this procedure can cause some stations to be empty while others to be full, as a result, there is a need for a method by which distribution of bikes among stations are done. Using year-round historical trip data obtained from one of the famous bike operators in New York that is Citi bike. The study aims to find the factors affecting bike ridership and then by utilizing some predictive algorithms such as, regression models, k-means, decision trees and random forest a model will be created to estimate the number of bikes needed in an hourly basis regardless of any specific stations initially. Where accuracy will be eventually calculated. The testing will be initially evaluating the data of Citi bike in New York, however, the same can be utilized to evaluate data from other cities worldwide and operators, as well as other micro mobility modes such as e-scooters, mopeds, and others. Initially the Prediction problem will be evaluated against the current data available in the open-source Citi-Bike data, however, weather factors, bike infrastructure, and some other open-source data can be integrated for better results