A unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and forecasting of mortality under a unified framework. Furthermore, we propose an alternative class of model identification constraints which is more suited to statistical inference in filtering and parameter estimation settings based on maximization of the marginalized likelihood or in Bayesian inference. We then develop a novel class of Bayesian state-space models which incorporate apriori beliefs about the mortality model characteristics as well as for more flexible and appropriate assumptions relating to heteroscedasticity that present in observed mortality data. We show that multiple period and cohort effect can be cast under a state-space structure. To study long term mortality dynamics, we introduce stochastic volatility to the period effect. The estimation of the resulting stochastic volatility model of mortality is performed using a recent class of Monte Carlo procedure specifically designed for state and parameter estimation in Bayesian state-space models, known as the class of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the framework we have developed using Danish male mortality data, and show that incorporating heteroscedasticity and stochastic volatility markedly improves model fit despite an increase of model complexity. Forecasting properties of the enhanced models are examined with long term and short term calibration periods on the reconstruction of life tables.Comment: 46 page

Distributed adaptive signal processing for frequency estimation

It is widely recognised that future smart grids will heavily rely upon intelligent communication and signal processing as enabling technologies for their operation. Traditional tools for power system analysis, which have been built from a circuit theory perspective, are a good match for balanced system conditions. However, the unprecedented changes that are imposed by smart grid requirements, are pushing the limits of these old paradigms. To this end, we provide new signal processing perspectives to address some fundamental operations in power systems such as frequency estimation, regulation and fault detection. Firstly, motivated by our finding that any excursion from nominal power system conditions results in a degree of non-circularity in the measured variables, we cast the frequency estimation problem into a distributed estimation framework for noncircular complex random variables. Next, we derive the required next generation widely linear, frequency estimators which incorporate the so-called augmented data statistics and cater for the noncircularity and a widely linear nature of system functions. Uniquely, we also show that by virtue of augmented complex statistics, it is possible to treat frequency tracking and fault detection in a unified way. To address the ever shortening time-scales in future frequency regulation tasks, the developed distributed widely linear frequency estimators are equipped with the ability to compensate for the fewer available temporal voltage data by exploiting spatial diversity in wide area measurements. This contribution is further supported by new physically meaningful theoretical results on the statistical behavior of distributed adaptive filters. Our approach avoids the current restrictive assumptions routinely employed to simplify the analysis by making use of the collaborative learning strategies of distributed agents. The efficacy of the proposed distributed frequency estimators over standard strictly linear and stand-alone algorithms is illustrated in case studies over synthetic and real-world three-phase measurements. An overarching theme in this thesis is the elucidation of underlying commonalities between different methodologies employed in classical power engineering and signal processing. By revisiting fundamental power system ideas within the framework of augmented complex statistics, we provide a physically meaningful signal processing perspective of three-phase transforms and reveal their intimate connections with spatial discrete Fourier transform (DFT), optimal dimensionality reduction and frequency demodulation techniques. Moreover, under the widely linear framework, we also show that the two most widely used frequency estimators in the power grid are in fact special cases of frequency demodulation techniques. Finally, revisiting classic estimation problems in power engineering through the lens of non-circular complex estimation has made it possible to develop a new self-stabilising adaptive three-phase transformation which enables algorithms designed for balanced operating conditions to be straightforwardly implemented in a variety of real-world unbalanced operating conditions. This thesis therefore aims to help bridge the gap between signal processing and power communities by providing power system designers with advanced estimation algorithms and modern physically meaningful interpretations of key power engineering paradigms in order to match the dynamic and decentralised nature of the smart grid.Open Acces

Adaptive Estimation and Heuristic Optimization of Nonlinear Spacecraft Attitude Dynamics

For spacecraft conducting on-orbit operations, changes to the structure of the spacecraft are not uncommon. These planned or unanticipated changes in inertia properties couple with the spacecraft\u27s attitude dynamics and typically require estimation. For systems with time-varying inertia parameters, multiple model adaptive estimation (MMAE) routines can be utilized for parameter and state estimates. MMAE algorithms involve constructing a bank of recursive estimators, each assuming a different hypothesis for the systems dynamics. This research has three distinct, but related, contributions to satellite attitude dynamics and estimation. In the first part of this research, MMAE routines employing parallel banks of unscented attitude filters are applied to analytical models of spacecraft with time-varying mass moments of inertia (MOI), with the objective of estimating the MOI and classifying the spacecraft\u27s behavior. New adaptive estimation techniques were either modified or developed that can detect discontinuities in MOI up to 98 of the time in the specific problem scenario.Second, heuristic optimization techniques and numerical methods are applied to Wahba\u27s single-frame attitude estimation problem,decreasing computation time by an average of nearly 67 . Finally, this research poses MOI estimation as an ODE parameter identification problem, achieving successful numerical estimates through shooting methods and exploiting the polhodes of rigid body motion with results, on average, to be within 1 to 5 of the true MOI values

Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is concerned with including and characterising uncertainties in mathematical models. Major steps comprise proper description of system uncertainties, analysis and efficient quantification of uncertainties in predictions and design problems, and statistical inference on uncertain parameters starting from available measurements. Research in UQ addresses fundamental mathematical and statistical challenges, but has also wide applicability in areas such as engineering, environmental, physical and biological applications. This workshop focussed on mathematical challenges at the interface of applied mathematics, probability and statistics, numerical analysis, scientific computing and application domains. The workshop served to bring together experts from those disciplines in order to enhance their interaction, to exchange ideas and to develop new, powerful methods for UQ

Ensemble Riemannian data assimilation: towards large-scale dynamical systems

This paper presents the results of the ensemble Riemannian data assimilation for relatively highdimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, focusing on the chaotic Lorenz-96 model and a two-layer quasi-geostrophic (QG) model of atmospheric circulation. The analysis state in this approach is inferred from a joint distribution that optimally couples the background probability distribution and the likelihood function, enabling formal treatment of systematic biases without any Gaussian assumptions. Despite the risk of the curse of dimensionality in the computation of the coupling distribution, comparisons with the classic implementation of the particle filter and the stochastic ensemble Kalman filter demonstrate that, with the same ensemble size, the presented methodology could improve the predictability of dynamical systems. In particular, under systematic errors, the root mean squared error of the analysis state can be reduced by 20% (30 %) in the Lorenz-96 (QG) model

Random finite sets in multi-target tracking - efficient sequential MCMC implementation

Over the last few decades multi-target tracking (MTT) has proved to be a challenging and attractive research topic. MTT applications span a wide variety of disciplines, including robotics, radar/sonar surveillance, computer vision and biomedical research. The primary focus of this dissertation is to develop an effective and efficient multi-target tracking algorithm dealing with an unknown and time-varying number of targets. The emerging and promising Random Finite Set (RFS) framework provides a rigorous foundation for optimal Bayes multi-target tracking. In contrast to traditional approaches, the collection of individual targets is treated as a set-valued state. The intent of this dissertation is two-fold; first to assert that the RFS framework not only is a natural, elegant and rigorous foundation, but also leads to practical, efficient and reliable algorithms for Bayesian multi-target tracking, and second to provide several novel RFS based tracking algorithms suitable for the specific Track-Before-Detect (TBD) surveillance application. One main contribution of this dissertation is a rigorous derivation and practical implementation of a novel algorithm well suited to deal with multi-target tracking problems for a given cardinality. The proposed Interacting Population-based MCMC-PF algorithm makes use of several Metropolis-Hastings samplers running in parallel, which interact through genetic variation. Another key contribution concerns the design and implementation of two novel algorithms to handle a varying number of targets. The first approach exploits Reversible Jumps. The second approach is built upon the concepts of labeled RFSs and multiple cardinality hypotheses. The performance of the proposed algorithms is also demonstrated in practical scenarios, and shown to significantly outperform conventional multi-target PF in terms of track accuracy and consistency. The final contribution seeks to exploit external information to increase the performance of the surveillance system. In multi-target scenarios, kinematic constraints from the interaction of targets with their environment or other targets can restrict target motion. Such motion constraint information is integrated by using a fixed-lag smoothing procedure, named Knowledge-Based Fixed-Lag Smoother (KB-Smoother). The proposed combination IP-MCMC-PF/KB-Smoother yields enhanced tracking