57,050 research outputs found
Constrained multiple model bayesian filtering for target tracking in cluttered environment
This paper proposes a composite Bayesian filtering approach for unmanned aerial vehicle trajectory estimation in cluttered environments. More specifically, a complete model for the measurement likelihood function of all measurements, including target-generated observation and false alarms, is derived based on the random finite set theory. To accommodate several different manoeuvre modes and system state constraints, a recursive multiple model Bayesian filtering algorithm and its corresponding Sequential Monte Carlo implementation are established. Compared with classical approaches, the proposed method addresses the problem of measurement uncertainty without any data associations. Numerical simulations for estimating an unmanned aerial vehicle trajectory generated by generalised proportional navigation guidance law clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed formulation
The Neural Particle Filter
The robust estimation of dynamically changing features, such as the position
of prey, is one of the hallmarks of perception. On an abstract, algorithmic
level, nonlinear Bayesian filtering, i.e. the estimation of temporally changing
signals based on the history of observations, provides a mathematical framework
for dynamic perception in real time. Since the general, nonlinear filtering
problem is analytically intractable, particle filters are considered among the
most powerful approaches to approximating the solution numerically. Yet, these
algorithms prevalently rely on importance weights, and thus it remains an
unresolved question how the brain could implement such an inference strategy
with a neuronal population. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF),
a weight-less particle filter that can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics
of a recurrently connected neural network that receives feed-forward input from
sensory neurons and represents the posterior probability distribution in terms
of samples. Specifically, this algorithm bridges the gap between the
computational task of online state estimation and an implementation that allows
networks of neurons in the brain to perform nonlinear Bayesian filtering. The
model captures not only the properties of temporal and multisensory integration
according to Bayesian statistics, but also allows online learning with a
maximum likelihood approach. With an example from multisensory integration, we
demonstrate that the numerical performance of the model is adequate to account
for both filtering and identification problems. Due to the weightless approach,
our algorithm alleviates the 'curse of dimensionality' and thus outperforms
conventional, weighted particle filters in higher dimensions for a limited
number of particles
Stochastic Volatility Filtering with Intractable Likelihoods
This paper is concerned with particle filtering for -stable
stochastic volatility models. The -stable distribution provides a
flexible framework for modeling asymmetry and heavy tails, which is useful when
modeling financial returns. An issue with this distributional assumption is the
lack of a closed form for the probability density function. To estimate the
volatility of financial returns in this setting, we develop a novel auxiliary
particle filter. The algorithm we develop can be easily applied to any hidden
Markov model for which the likelihood function is intractable or
computationally expensive. The approximate target distribution of our auxiliary
filter is based on the idea of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC
methods allow for inference on posterior quantities in situations when the
likelihood of the underlying model is not available in closed form, but
simulating samples from it is possible. The ABC auxiliary particle filter
(ABC-APF) that we propose provides not only a good alternative to state
estimation in stochastic volatility models, but it also improves on the
existing ABC literature. It allows for more flexibility in state estimation
while improving on the accuracy through better proposal distributions in cases
when the optimal importance density of the filter is unavailable in closed
form. We assess the performance of the ABC-APF on a simulated dataset from the
-stable stochastic volatility model and compare it to other currently
existing ABC filters
Online Natural Gradient as a Kalman Filter
We cast Amari's natural gradient in statistical learning as a specific case
of Kalman filtering. Namely, applying an extended Kalman filter to estimate a
fixed unknown parameter of a probabilistic model from a series of observations,
is rigorously equivalent to estimating this parameter via an online stochastic
natural gradient descent on the log-likelihood of the observations.
In the i.i.d. case, this relation is a consequence of the "information
filter" phrasing of the extended Kalman filter. In the recurrent (state space,
non-i.i.d.) case, we prove that the joint Kalman filter over states and
parameters is a natural gradient on top of real-time recurrent learning (RTRL),
a classical algorithm to train recurrent models.
This exact algebraic correspondence provides relevant interpretations for
natural gradient hyperparameters such as learning rates or initialization and
regularization of the Fisher information matrix.Comment: 3rd version: expanded intr
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