Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches

Towards Design Principles for Data-Driven Decision Making: An Action Design Research Project in the Maritime Industry

Data-driven decision making (DDD) refers to organizational decision-making practices that emphasize the use of data and statistical analysis instead of relying on human judgment only. Various empirical studies provide evidence for the value of DDD, both on individual decision maker level and the organizational level. Yet, the path from data to value is not always an easy one and various organizational and psychological factors mediate and moderate the translation of data-driven insights into better decisions and, subsequently, effective business actions. The current body of academic literature on DDD lacks prescriptive knowledge on how to successfully employ DDD in complex organizational settings. Against this background, this paper reports on an action design research study aimed at designing and implementing IT artifacts for DDD at one of the largest ship engine manufacturers in the world. Our main contribution is a set of design principles highlighting, besides decision quality, the importance of model comprehensibility, domain knowledge, and actionability of results

Extracting actionable knowledge to increase business utility in sport services

The increase in retention of customer in gyms and health clubs is nowadays a challenge that requires concrete and personalized actions. Traditional data mining studies focused essentially on predictive analytics, neglecting the business domain. This work presents an actionable knowledge discovery system which uses the following pipeline (data collection, predictive model, loyalty actions). In the first step, it extracts and transforms existing real data from databases of the sports facilities. In a second step, predictive models are applied to identify user profiles more susceptible to dropout. Actionable rules are generated based on actionable attributes that should be avoided, in order to increase retention. Finally, in the third step, based on the previous actionable knowledge, experimental planning is carried out, with test and control groups, in order to find the best loyalty actions for customer retention. This document presents a simulation and the measure of the business utility of an actions sequence to avoid dropout.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A data mining approach for desire and intention to participate in virtual communities

The purpose of this study is to investigate performances of some of the data mining approaches while understanding desire and intention to participate in virtual communities and its antecedents. A research model has been developed following the literature review and the model was tested afterwards. In research part of the study, some of the data mining approaches as JRip, Part, OneR Method, Multilayer Perceptron (Neural Networks), Bayesian Networks have been used. Based on the analysis conducted it has been found out that Multilayer Neural Network had the best correct classification rate and lowest RMSE

EHRs Connect Research and Practice: Where Predictive Modeling, Artificial Intelligence, and Clinical Decision Support Intersect

Objectives: Electronic health records (EHRs) are only a first step in capturing and utilizing health-related data - the challenge is turning that data into useful information. Furthermore, EHRs are increasingly likely to include data relating to patient outcomes, functionality such as clinical decision support, and genetic information as well, and, as such, can be seen as repositories of increasingly valuable information about patients' health conditions and responses to treatment over time. Methods: We describe a case study of 423 patients treated by Centerstone within Tennessee and Indiana in which we utilized electronic health record data to generate predictive algorithms of individual patient treatment response. Multiple models were constructed using predictor variables derived from clinical, financial and geographic data. Results: For the 423 patients, 101 deteriorated, 223 improved and in 99 there was no change in clinical condition. Based on modeling of various clinical indicators at baseline, the highest accuracy in predicting individual patient response ranged from 70-72% within the models tested. In terms of individual predictors, the Centerstone Assessment of Recovery Level - Adult (CARLA) baseline score was most significant in predicting outcome over time (odds ratio 4.1 + 2.27). Other variables with consistently significant impact on outcome included payer, diagnostic category, location and provision of case management services. Conclusions: This approach represents a promising avenue toward reducing the current gap between research and practice across healthcare, developing data-driven clinical decision support based on real-world populations, and serving as a component of embedded clinical artificial intelligences that "learn" over time.Comment: Keywords: Data Mining; Decision Support Systems, Clinical; Electronic Health Records; Implementation; Evidence-Based Medicine; Data Warehouse; (2012). EHRs Connect Research and Practice: Where Predictive Modeling, Artificial Intelligence, and Clinical Decision Support Intersect. Health Policy and Technology. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1112.166

A bi‐objective procedure to deliver actionable knowledge in sport services

The increase in retention of customer in gyms and health clubs is nowadays a challenge that requires concrete and personalized actions. Traditional data mining studies focused essentially on predictive analytics, neglecting the business domain. This work presents an actionable knowledge discovery system which uses the following pipeline (data collection, predictive model, retention interventions). In the first step, it extracts and transforms existing real data from databases of the sports facilities. In a second step, predictive models are applied to identify user profiles more susceptible to dropout, where actionable withdrawal rules are based on actionable attributes. Finally, in the third step, based on the previous actionable knowledge some of the values of the actionable attributes should be changed in order to increase retention. Simulation of scenarios is carried out, with test and control groups, where business utility and associate cost are measured. This document presents a bi-objective study in order to choose the more efficient scenarios.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Scalable Techniques for Behavioral Analysis and Forecasting

The ability to model, forecast, and analyze the behaviors of other agents has applications in many diverse contexts. For example, behavioral models can be used in multi-player games to forecast an opponent's next move, in economics to forecast a merger decision by a CEO, or in international politics to predict the behavior of a rival state or group. Such models can facilitate formulation of effective mitigating responses and provide a foundation for decision-support technologies. Behavioral modeling is a computationally challenging problem--real world data sets can contain on the order of 10^30,000 possible behaviors in any given situation. This work presents several scalable frameworks for modeling and forecasting agent behavior, particularly in the realm of international security dynamics. A probabilistic logic formalism for modeling and forecasting behavior is described, as well as distributed algorithms for efficient reasoning in this framework. To further cope with the scale of this problem, forecasting methods are also introduced that operate directly on time series data, rather than an intermediate behavioral model, to forecast actions and situations at some time in the future. Agent behavior can be adaptive, and in rare circumstances can deviate from the statistically "normal" past behavior. A system is also presented that can forecast when and how such behavioral changes will occur. These forecasting techniques, as well as any arbitrary time series forecasting approach, can be classified by a general axiomatic framework for forecasting in temporal databases. The knowledge gained from behavioral models and forecasts can be employed by decision-makers to develop effective response policies. An efficient framework is provided for identifying the optimal changes to the state of the world to elicit desired behaviors from another agent, balancing cost with likelihood of success. These modeling and analysis tools have also been incorporated into a prototype decision-support system and used in several case studies of real-world international security situations