BASIS RISK FOR RICE

The objective of this paper is to develop a cross hedging model for rice that minimizes basis risk and accounts for the existence of the nonstationary nature of basis. Basis is treated as an endogenous variable and model for basis risk are developed.Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Neural Basis of Financial Risk Taking

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk- neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk- seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices, and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision-making.neuroeconomics, neurofinance, brain, investing, emotions, affect

The Zeeman Effect in Finance: Libor Spectroscopy and Basis Risk Management

Once upon a time there was a classical financial world in which all the Libors were equal. Standard textbooks taught that simple relations held, such that, for example, a 6 months Libor Deposit was replicable with a 3 months Libor Deposits plus a 3x6 months Forward Rate Agreement (FRA), and that Libor was a good proxy of the risk free rate required as basic building block of no-arbitrage pricing theory. Nowadays, in the modern financial world after the credit crunch, some Libors are more equal than others, depending on their rate tenor, and classical formulas are history. Banks are not anymore too "big to fail", Libors are fixed by panels of risky banks, and they are risky rates themselves. These simple empirical facts carry very important consequences in derivative's trading and risk management, such as, for example, basis risk, collateralization and regulatory pressure in favour of Central Counterparties. Something that should be carefully considered by anyone managing even a single plain vanilla Swap. In this qualitative note we review the problem trying to shed some light on this modern animal farm, recurring to an analogy with quantum physics, the Zeeman effect

The Basis Risk of Catastrophic-Loss Index Securities

This paper analyzes the basis risk of catastrophic-loss (CAT) index derivatives, which securitize losses from catastrophic events such as hurricanes and earthquakes. We analyze the hedging effectiveness of these instruments for 255 insurers writing 93 percent of the insured residential property values in Florida, the state most severely affected by exposure to hurricanes. County-level losses are simulated for each insurer using a sophisticated model developed by Applied Insurance Research. We analyze basis risk by measuring the effectiveness of hedge portfolios, consisting of a short position each insurer's own catastrophic losses and a long position in CAT-index call spreads, in reducing insurer loss volatility, value-at-risk, and expected losses above specified thresholds. Two types of loss indices are used -- a statewide index based on insurance losses in four quadrants of the state. The principal finding is that firms in the three largest Florida market-share quartiles can hedge almost as effectively using the intra-state index contracts as they can using contracts that settle on their own losses. Hedging with the statewide contracts is effective only for insurers with the largest market shares and for smaller insurers that are highly diversified throughout the state. The results also support the agency-theoretic hypotheses that mutual insurers are more diversified than stocks and that unaffiliated single firms are more diversified than insurers that are members of groups.

Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives in Banking

Using the industrial economics approach to the microeconomics of banking we analyze a large bank under credit risk. Our aim is to study how a risky loan portfolio affects optimal bank behavior in the loan and deposit markets, when credit derivatives to hedge credit risk are available. We examine hedging without and with basis risk. In the absence of basis risk the usual separation result is confirmed. In case of basis risk, however, we find a weaker notion of separation.credit risk, credit derivatives, banking firm, risk aversion

Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis

Significant time-varying risk premia exist in the foreign currency futures basis, and these risk premia are meaningfully correlated with common macroeconomic risk factors from equity and bond markets. The stock index dividend yield and the bond default and term spreads in the U.S. markets help forecast the risk premium component of the foreign currency futures basis. The specific source of risk matters, but the relationships are robust across currencies. The currency futures basis is positively associated with the dividend yield and negatively associated with the spread variables. These correlations cannot be attributed to the expected spot price change component of the currency futures basis, thus establishing the presence of a time-varying risk premium component in the currency futures basis.risk premia, foreign exchange

Pricing and Hedging Basis Risk under No Good Deal Assumption

We consider the problem of pricing and hedging an option written on a non-exchangeable asset when trading in a correlated asset is possible. This is a typical case of incomplete market where it is well known that the super-replication concept provides generally too high prices. Here, following J.H. Cochrane and J. Saá-Requejo, we study valuation under No Good Deal (NGD) Assumption. First, we clarify the notion of NGD for dynamic strategies, compute a lower and an upper bound and prove that in fact NGD price can be strictly higher that the one previously compute in the literature. We also propose a hedging strategy by imposing criterium on the variance of the replication's error. Finally, we provide various numerical illustrations showing the efficiency of NGD pricing and hedging.No Good Deal;basis risk;mean variance hedging

Managing the risk of loans with basis risk: sell, hedge, or do nothing?

Individual loans contain a bundle of risks including credit risk and interest rate risk. This paper focuses on the general issue of banks’ management of these various risks in a model with costly loan monitoring and convex taxes. The results suggest that if the hedge is not subject to basis risk, then hedging dominates a strategy of “do nothing.” Whether hedging dominates loan sales depends on whether it induces reduced monitoring, the net benefit of monitoring, and the reduced tax burden of eliminating all risk via selling. If the hedge is subject to basis risk, then a “do nothing” strategy may dominate the hedging and loan sales strategy for risk neutral banks. A number of empirical implications follow from the analytical and numerical results in the paper.Loan sales ; Hedging (Finance) ; Risk management

Quadratic Hedging of Basis Risk

This paper examines a simple basis risk model based on correlated geometric Brownian motions. We apply quadratic criteria to minimize basis risk and hedge in an optimal manner. Initially, we derive the Follmer-Schweizer decomposition of a European claim. This allows pricing and hedging under the minimal martingale measure, corresponding to the local risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, since the mean-variance tradeoff process is deterministic in our setup, the minimal martingale- and variance-optimal martingale measures coincide. Consequently, the mean-variance optimal strategy is easily constructed. Simple closed-form pricing and hedging formulae for put and call options are derived. Due to market incompleteness, these formulae depend on the drift parameters of the processes. By making a further equilibrium assumption, we derive an approximate hedging formula, which does not require knowledge of these parameters. The hedging strategies are tested using Monte Carlo experiments, and are compared with recent results achieved using a utility maximization approach.Option hedging; incomplete markets; basis risk; local risk minimization; mean-variance hedging

Optimal Dynamic Basis Trading

We study the problem of dynamically trading a futures contract and its underlying asset under a stochastic basis model. The basis evolution is modeled by a stopped scaled Brownian bridge to account for non-convergence of the basis at maturity. The optimal trading strategies are determined from a utility maximization problem under hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) risk preferences. By analyzing the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, we derive the exact conditions under which the equation admits a solution and solve the utility maximization explicitly. A series of numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal strategies and examine the effects of model parameters.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figure