NEMLink: Augmenting the Australian National Electricity Market transmission grid to facilitate increased wind turbine generation and its effect on transmission congestion

Hewson, MG ORCiD: 0000-0002-5212-3921This report’s primary aim is to investigate ‘The effect of increasing the number of wind turbine generators on transmission line congestion in the Australian National Electricity Market from 2014 to 2025’. The report is part of the research project titled ‘An investigation of the impacts of increased power supply to the national grid by wind generators on the Australian electricity industry’. The sensitivity analysis in this report uses simulations from the ‘Australian National Electricity Market (ANEM) model version 1.10’ 10’ (Wild, Bell & Foster 2015) to model the effect of five different levels of wind penetration on transmission congestion. The five levels of wind penetration span Scenarios A to E where Scenario A represents ‘no wind’ and Scenario E includes all the existing and planned wind power sufficient to meet Australia’s 20% 2020 41TWh Large Renewable Energy Target. Wild, Bell and Foster (2015) provide a comprehensive explanation of the both the ANEM model and the five levels of wind penetration

A non-technical introduction to the ANEMMarket model of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM)

In this paper, we provide an accessible introduction to our agent-based ANEMMarket simulation model of the Australian National Electricity Market. This model has been purpose built to assess the impacts of emissions trading schemes, carbon taxes and the introduction of significant new suppliers of electricity generated from low or zero carbon emitting generators. We provide an illustrative example that involves the simulation of the impacts of a range of carbon prices on the dispatch of power from different types of generators in different regional locations. From these we compute the resultant carbon reduction effects. However, these remain only illustrative simulations because they do not include a range of operative constraints that exist in reality.

Support Vector Machine Based Electricity Price Forecasting For Electricity Markets utilising Projected Assessment of System Adequacy Data

In this paper we present an analysis of the results of a study into wholesale (spot) electricity price forecasting with Support Vector Machines (SVM) utilising past price and demand data and Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (PASA) data. The forecasting accuracy was evaluated using Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional data over the year 2002. The inclusion of PASA data shows little improvement in forecasting accuracy

Modelling commodity prices in the Australian National Electricity Market

Beginning in the early 1990s several countries, including Australia, have pursued programs of deregulation and restructuring of their electricity supply industries. Dissatisfaction with state-run monopoly suppliers and a desire for increased competition and choice for consumers have been the major motivations for reform. In Australia, the historical, vertically-integrated, government-owned electricity authorities were separated into separate generation, transmission, distribution and retail sectors in each State and a competitive, wholesale market for electricity, the National Electricity Market (NEM) began operation in December 1998. The goal of deregulation was (and remains) increased competition in electricity supply, so that consumers may enjoy wider choice and lower prices. The first benefit has largely been delivered but it is arguable whether the second benefit of lower prices has been realised. Increased competition has come at the price of increased wholesale price volatility, which brings with it increased cost as market participants seek to trade profitably and manage the increase in price risk. In the NEM, generators compete to sell into a pool market and distributors purchase electricity from the pool at prices determined by demand and supply, on a half-hourly basis. These market-clearing prices can be extremely volatile. Electricity prices are generally characterised by significant seasonal patterns, on an intra-day, weekly and monthly basis, as demand and supply conditions vary. Prices are also characterised by strong mean-reversion and extremely high spikes in price. While long-run mean prices typically range between $30 and$45 per megawatt hour, prices can spike to levels above $9,000 or$10,000 per megawatt hour from time to time. These spikes tend to be sporadic and very short-lived, rarely lasting for more than an hour or two. Although infrequent, spikes are the major contributor to price volatility and their evolution and causes need to be investigated and understood. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and model Australian electricity prices. The research work presented is mostly empirical, with the early analytical chapters focusing on investigating the presence and significance of seasonal factors and spikes in electricity price and demand. In subsequent chapters this work is extended into analysis of the underlying volatility processes and the interaction between extreme values in demand and price is specifically investigated. The findings of the thesis are that while the characteristics of strong seasonal patterns and spikes that are generally observed in similar electricity markets are present in the NEM in both price and demand, there is significant variation in their presence and effect between the regional pools. The study also finds that while time-varying volatility is evident in the price series there is again some variation in the way this is characterised between states. A further finding challenges the accepted wisdom that demand peaks drive price spikes at the extremes and shows empirically that price spikes are more likely to be caused by supply disruptions than extremes of demand. The findings provide useful insight into this highly idiosyncratic but economically important national market

Managing market risks in the Australian national electricity market

The restructuring of many national and state electricity industries over the last two decades has created new sets of laws and regulations, market design and participants. Along with those changes, industry risks have also been transformed significantly. Prior to restructuring, government-owned or carefully regulated monopoly private utilities would manage most of these industry risks. With restructuring, however, both the government, through their market regulators, and industry participants need to manage a range of previous,, yet also now new, risks. While the government’s risk management strategy is focused on the industry as a whole, participants are naturally more concerned with their individual risks. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) is one of the many electricity markets that were formed through the restructuring process underway worldwide. It created a number of new types of market participants facing different sets of risks. The main objective of this thesis is to examine the management of market risk by these different NEM participants. The methodology used in the thesis involves developing a fundamental understanding of electricity restructuring, the NEM and the various risks faced by the different NEM participants. Data on NEM spot prices, ancillary costs and forward prices are analysed to gain a better understanding of its relationship with market activities. Different risk management strategies, both proactive and reactive, that can be taken by the participants are discussed This thesis has highlighted some of the complexities involved in managing risks in a restructured electricity industry. Risks are never static and changes in market conditions alter the risk exposure of the participants. Therefore, participants will need to constantly monitor their risk exposure and update their risk management strategies. The Cash-Flow-at-Risk methodology is introduced as a possible tool to measure risk and analyse risk management options for different NEM participants

Renewable energy integration into the Australian National Electricity Market: Characterising the energy value of wind and solar generation

This paper examines how key characteristics of the underlying wind and solar resources may impact on their energy value within the Australian National Electricity Market(NEM). Analysis has been performed for wind generation using half hour NEM data for South Australia over the 2008-9 financial year. The potential integration of large scale solar generation has been modelled using direct normal solar radiant energy measurements from the Bureau of Meteorology for six sites across the NEM. For wind energy, the level and variability of actual wind farm outputs in South Australia is analysed. High levels of wind generation in that State have been found to have a strong secondary effect on spot prices. Wind generation's low operating costs will see it displacing higher operating cost fossil-fuel plant at times of high wind. At the same time, the increased variability of wind may impose additional challenges and costs on conventional plant which will also be reflected in wholesale spot market prices. It is shown that this is proving particularly important during high wind penetration periods, which are contributing to an increased frequency of low or even negative prices. The solar resource in South Australia is shown to be highly variable; however, as seen with wind power, geographical dispersion of generators can significantly reduce power variability, even with as few as six sites. The correlation of the solar resource with spot prices also appears to be superior to wind generation. Modelling using the Adelaide solar resource showed that, for electricity sold into the spot market, two-axis tracking solar generators would achieve an average price that is over twice that received by wind generators over the year 2008-9 analysed. Of course, significant solar generation deployment might drive similar price impacts as seen with wind generation, thereby reducing this advantage. Considering the potential implications of both major wind and solar generation within South Australia, the solar and wind resources within the State appear, on average, to be non-correlated for the magnitude, and the change in magnitude, across half an hour. The analysis shows that solar and wind resources within the NEM have key characteristics that can markedly impact on their energy value within the wholesale electricity market. High levels of renewable electricity are already affecting spot prices, highlighting the need for low bidding renewable generators to attain power purchase contracts and for developers to consider this effect when choosing a site location for renewable generators. Other generators within the NEM may also be significantly impacted by major renewable energy deployment. The long-term success of renewable generation will likely depend on maximising the energy value that it contributes to the electricity industry.Energy value, Integration, NEM, Solar, Variability, Wind, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Modeling the deployment of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and their effects on the Australian National Electricity Market.

The development of hybrid and fully electric vehicles could deliver significant reductions of emissions from the Australian transportation sector by shifting its major energy source from internal combustion to electricity. This shift towards the the use of electricity shifts the point source emissions to one which has a lower emissions intensity. Changes in load behaviour as a result of the consumer uptake of these vehicles will have significant consequences for network and central planners for the future of Australia’s electricity supply industry. This paper investigates the effects on the security of supply of energy during these previously unseen demand patterns, while also examining changes to spot market prices and changes in emissions rates. The simulation results indicate that wholesale prices during the off-peak period will increase slowly over time with controlled charging. While uncontrolled charging increases the incidence of extreme price events and a considerable number of hours with un-served energy within the network. This increase in spot prices may have consequences for regulated retail electricity tariffs. We also discuss the implementation of possible changes to the retail tariff structure to accommodate the charging of these vehicles.Electricity Markets, Hybrid Vehicle, Transportation Economics.

Market Benefit Assessment of Basslink in the Australian National Electricity Market

Economic benefit assessment has become an integral requirement of transmission system planning in the context of electricity market deregulation around the world. In a deregulated electricity market, not only does transmission planning have to address technical requirements but also has to consider commercial issues linked to an electricity market. One of the prime goals of transmission planning is to ensure a fair distribution of economic benefits among the market participants (all those who produce, transmit and consume). These economic benefits attributable to a transmission interconnection generally appear as benefits to an electricity market and are referred to as market benefits. Even from a regulatory perspective, assessment of market benefits of a transmission interconnection is an essential requirement to ascertain its economic value. The market benefit assessment of a transmission interconnector presented in this thesis is specific to the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) consistent with the regulatory framework in the NEM. This thesis develops a market benefit assessment framework in accordance with Regulatory Investment Test for Transmission (RIT-T) to assess the economic significance of Basslink, one of six inter-regional transmission interconnectors in the Australian NEM. A long-term market benefit modelling framework comprising least cost modelling (LCM) and time sequential modelling (TSM) is developed and applied to undertake modelling of long term market benefits. PLEXOS, a leading power market modelling software is used for this purpose. Economic analysis concludes that the presence of Basslink is of significant economic value in terms of market benefits for the ranges of market development scenarios (MDS) studied

The Use of Trimming to Improve the Performance of Tests for Nonlinear Serial Dependence with Application to the Australian National Electricity Market

In this article, we build on the results reported in Wild, Hinich and Foster (2008) for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia by testing for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing weekly cycles in spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) and the Engle (1982) ARCH LM test to the time series of half hourly spot prices from 7/12/1998 to 29/02/2008. We use trimming to improve the finite sample performance of the various test statistics mentioned above given the presence of significant skewness and leptokurtosis in the source datasets which may adversely affect the convergence properties of the test statistics in finite samples. With trimming, we still find the presence of significant third and fourth order (non-linear) serial dependence in the weekly spot price data, pointing to the presence of ‘deep’ nonlinear structure in this data.