Supporting scientific enquiry with uncertain sources

In this paper we propose a computational method- ology for assessing the impact of trust associated to sources of information in scientific enquiry activities building upon recent proposals of an ontology for situational understanding and results in computational argumentation. Often trust in the source of information serves as a proxy for evaluating the quality of the information itself, especially in the cases of information overhead. We show how our computational methodology, composed of an ontology for representing uncertain information and sources, as well as an argumentative process of conjecture and refutation, support human analysts in scientific enquiry, as well as high- lighting issues that demand further investigation

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. Keywords Framing - Uncertainty - Water management practic

Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

The case of online trust

“The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com”. Copyright SpringerThis paper contributes to the debate on online trust addressing the problem of whether an online environment satisfies the necessary conditions for the emergence of trust. The paper defends the thesis that online environments can foster trust, and it does so in three steps. Firstly, the arguments proposed by the detractors of online trust are presented and analysed. Secondly, it is argued that trust can emerge in uncertain and risky environments and that it is possible to trust online identities when they are diachronic and sufficient data are available to assess their reputation. Finally, a definition of trust as a second-order property of first-order relation is endorsed in order to present a new definition of online trust. According to such a definition, online trust is an occurrence of trust that specifically qualifies the relation of communication ongoing among individuals in digital environments. On the basis of this analysis, the paper concludes by arguing that online trust promotes the emergence of social behaviours rewarding honest and transparent communications.Peer reviewe

Introducing fuzzy trust for managing belief conflict over semantic web data

Interpreting Semantic Web Data by different human experts can end up in scenarios, where each expert comes up with different and conflicting ideas what a concept can mean and how they relate to other concepts. Software agents that operate on the Semantic Web have to deal with similar scenarios where the interpretation of Semantic Web data that describes the heterogeneous sources becomes contradicting. One such application area of the Semantic Web is ontology mapping where different similarities have to be combined into a more reliable and coherent view, which might easily become unreliable if the conflicting beliefs in similarities are not managed effectively between the different agents. In this paper we propose a solution for managing this conflict by introducing trust between the mapping agents based on the fuzzy voting model

Attachment-related expectations and mother-referent memory bias in middle childhood

Understanding the cognitive processing of attachment-relevant information has become a major focus of attachment research. Previous research demonstrated links between attachment and memory for attachment-related information, but results were contradictory and did not control for mood-effects. The current study aimed to provide a conceptual framework to capture inconsistencies. A straightforward memory bias hypothesis was derived and tested. Fifty children (aged 10-12) completed questionnaires assessing confidence in maternal support and depressive symptoms, and a memory task in which they recalled positive and negative words that referred to previous interactions with mother. Less confidence in maternal support and more depressive symptoms were linked to a more negative mother-related memory bias. The effect of confidence in maternal support remained marginally significant when controlling for depressive symptoms, explaining the initial effect of depressive symptoms. These findings support attachment theory's hypothesis that attachment-relevant information is processed in an attachment expectation-congruent way

MEASURING THE ANTECEDENT EFFECTS OF SERVICE COGNITION AND INTERNET SHOPPING ANXIETY ON CONSUMER SATISFACTION WITH E-TAILING SERVICE

Internet shopping anxiety (ISA), or the negative emotion that results from an individual’s experiences with online shopping in particular, is an important factor to explain the consumer’s emotion in ecommerce usage experience, such as e-tailing service usage experience. In this study, we introduce Internet shopping anxiety (ISA) as a new factor that reflect the consumer’s emotion in e-tailing service usage. We explore and empirically validate the relationships among Internet shopping anxiety, perceived risk and consumer satisfaction under the online retailing context. This study surveyed and collected the responses of 239 survey participants with online shopping experience. The results indicated that E-tailing service quality and trust in website have significant negative effects on Internet shopping anxiety. Further, the results showed that Internet shopping anxiety have a significant positive effect on perceived risk. Finally, perceived risk is found to have a significant negative effect on consumers’ satisfaction.consumer satisfaction, e-tailing service, internet shopping anxiety.

Tweet, but Verify: Epistemic Study of Information Verification on Twitter

While Twitter provides an unprecedented opportunity to learn about breaking news and current events as they happen, it often produces skepticism among users as not all the information is accurate but also hoaxes are sometimes spread. While avoiding the diffusion of hoaxes is a major concern during fast-paced events such as natural disasters, the study of how users trust and verify information from tweets in these contexts has received little attention so far. We survey users on credibility perceptions regarding witness pictures posted on Twitter related to Hurricane Sandy. By examining credibility perceptions on features suggested for information verification in the field of Epistemology, we evaluate their accuracy in determining whether pictures were real or fake compared to professional evaluations performed by experts. Our study unveils insight about tweet presentation, as well as features that users should look at when assessing the veracity of tweets in the context of fast-paced events. Some of our main findings include that while author details not readily available on Twitter feeds should be emphasized in order to facilitate verification of tweets, showing multiple tweets corroborating a fact misleads users to trusting what actually is a hoax. We contrast some of the behavioral patterns found on tweets with literature in Psychology research.Comment: Pre-print of paper accepted to Social Network Analysis and Mining (Springer

Online trust and Internet gambling

There are a number of features which can identify an outstanding brand, with consumer trust being highly-prized, particularly in the online gambling sector. In this article, Dr. Mark Griffiths, Professor of Gambling Studies at Nottingham Trent University, examines the challenges facing the gambling industry in gaining trust, the results of respected surveys on what is required to create trust and provides key considerations for operators in earning user trust