6,955 research outputs found
Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction
In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical
information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination
prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied
problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world
scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to
predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a
multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of
already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and
encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information
from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to
predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem
of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training
phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge
2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with
respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on
Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on
Intelligent Transportation System
Neural-Attention-Based Deep Learning Architectures for Modeling Traffic Dynamics on Lane Graphs
Deep neural networks can be powerful tools, but require careful
application-specific design to ensure that the most informative relationships
in the data are learnable. In this paper, we apply deep neural networks to the
nonlinear spatiotemporal physics problem of vehicle traffic dynamics. We
consider problems of estimating macroscopic quantities (e.g., the queue at an
intersection) at a lane level. First-principles modeling at the lane scale has
been a challenge due to complexities in modeling social behaviors like lane
changes, and those behaviors' resultant macro-scale effects. Following domain
knowledge that upstream/downstream lanes and neighboring lanes affect each
others' traffic flows in distinct ways, we apply a form of neural attention
that allows the neural network layers to aggregate information from different
lanes in different manners. Using a microscopic traffic simulator as a testbed,
we obtain results showing that an attentional neural network model can use
information from nearby lanes to improve predictions, and, that explicitly
encoding the lane-to-lane relationship types significantly improves
performance. We also demonstrate the transfer of our learned neural network to
a more complex road network, discuss how its performance degradation may be
attributable to new traffic behaviors induced by increased topological
complexity, and motivate learning dynamics models from many road network
topologies.Comment: To appear at 2019 IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation
System
STAR: A Concise Deep Learning Framework for Citywide Human Mobility Prediction
Human mobility forecasting in a city is of utmost importance to
transportation and public safety, but with the process of urbanization and the
generation of big data, intensive computing and determination of mobility
pattern have become challenging. This study focuses on how to improve the
accuracy and efficiency of predicting citywide human mobility via a simpler
solution. A spatio-temporal mobility event prediction framework based on a
single fully-convolutional residual network (STAR) is proposed. STAR is a
highly simple, general and effective method for learning a single tensor
representing the mobility event. Residual learning is utilized for training the
deep network to derive the detailed result for scenarios of citywide
prediction. Extensive benchmark evaluation results on real-world data
demonstrate that STAR outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in single- and
multi-step prediction while utilizing fewer parameters and achieving higher
efficiency.Comment: Accepted by MDM 201
D3P : Data-driven demand prediction for fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems
The future of urban mobility is expected to be shared and electric. It is not only a more sustainable paradigm that can reduce emissions, but can also bring societal benefits by offering a more affordable on-demand mobility option to the general public. Many car sharing service providers as well as automobile manufacturers are entering the competition by expanding both their EV fleets and renting/returning station networks, aiming to seize a share of the market and to bring car sharing to the zero emissions level. During their fast expansion, one determinant for success is the ability of predicting the demand of stations as the entire system is growing continuously. There are several challenges in this demand prediction problem: First, unlike most of the existing work which predicts demand only for static systems or at few stages of expansion, in the real world we often need to predict the demand as or even before stations are being deployed or closed, to provide information and decision support. Second, for the new stations to be deployed, there is no historical data available to help the prediction of their demand. Finally, the impact of deploying/closing stations on the other stations in the system can be complex. To address these challenges, we formulate the demand prediction problem in the context of fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems, and propose a data-driven demand prediction approach which aims to model the expansion dynamics directly from the data. We use a local temporal encoding process to handle the historical data for each existing station, and a dynamic spatial encoding process to take correlations between stations into account with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCN). The encoded features are fed to a multi-scale predictor, which forecasts both the long-term expected demand of the stations and their instant demand in the near future. We evaluate the proposed approach with real-world data collected from a major EV sharing platform for one year. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state of the art, showing up to three-fold performance gain in predicting demand for the expanding EV sharing systems
Machine learning for early detection of traffic congestion using public transport traffic data
The purpose of this project is to provide better knowledge of how the bus travel times is affected by congestion and other problems in the urban traffic environment. The main source of data for this study is second-level measurements coming from all buses in the Linköping region showing the location of each vehicle.The main goal of this thesis is to propose, implement, test and optimize a machine learning algorithm based on data collected from regional buses from Sweden so that it is able to perform predictions on the future state of the urban traffic.El objetivo principal de este proyecto es proponer, implementar, probar y optimizar un algoritmo de aprendizaje automático basado en datos recopilados de autobuses regionales de Suecia para que poder realizar predicciones sobre el estado futuro del tráfico urbano.L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte Ă©s proposar, implementar, provar i optimitzar un algoritme de machine learning basat en dades recollides a partir d'autobusos regionals de Suècia de manera per poder realitzar prediccions sobre l'estat futur del trĂ nsit urbĂ
Traffic Light Control Using Deep Policy-Gradient and Value-Function Based Reinforcement Learning
Recent advances in combining deep neural network architectures with
reinforcement learning techniques have shown promising potential results in
solving complex control problems with high dimensional state and action spaces.
Inspired by these successes, in this paper, we build two kinds of reinforcement
learning algorithms: deep policy-gradient and value-function based agents which
can predict the best possible traffic signal for a traffic intersection. At
each time step, these adaptive traffic light control agents receive a snapshot
of the current state of a graphical traffic simulator and produce control
signals. The policy-gradient based agent maps its observation directly to the
control signal, however the value-function based agent first estimates values
for all legal control signals. The agent then selects the optimal control
action with the highest value. Our methods show promising results in a traffic
network simulated in the SUMO traffic simulator, without suffering from
instability issues during the training process
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