21,898 research outputs found
Multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm for multi-step electric load forecasting
As energy saving becomes more and more popular, electric load forecasting has played a more and more crucial role in power management systems in the last few years. Because of the real-time characteristic of electricity and the uncertainty change of an electric load, realizing the accuracy and stability of electric load forecasting is a challenging task. Many predecessors have obtained the expected forecasting results by various methods. Considering the stability of time series prediction, a novel combined electric load forecasting, which based on extreme learning machine (ELM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and support vector machines (SVMs), was proposed. The combined model first uses three neural networks to forecast the electric load data separately considering that the single model has inevitable disadvantages, the combined model applies the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (MOPSO) to optimize the parameters. In order to verify the capacity of the proposed combined model, 1-step, 2-step, and 3-step are used to forecast the electric load data of three Australian states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. The experimental results intuitively indicate that for these three datasets, the combined model outperforms all three individual models used for comparison, which demonstrates its superior capability in terms of accuracy and stability
Support Vector Machine in Prediction of Building Energy Demand Using Pseudo Dynamic Approach
Building's energy consumption prediction is a major concern in the recent
years and many efforts have been achieved in order to improve the energy
management of buildings. In particular, the prediction of energy consumption in
building is essential for the energy operator to build an optimal operating
strategy, which could be integrated to building's energy management system
(BEMS). This paper proposes a prediction model for building energy consumption
using support vector machine (SVM). Data-driven model, for instance, SVM is
very sensitive to the selection of training data. Thus the relevant days data
selection method based on Dynamic Time Warping is used to train SVM model. In
addition, to encompass thermal inertia of building, pseudo dynamic model is
applied since it takes into account information of transition of energy
consumption effects and occupancy profile. Relevant days data selection and
whole training data model is applied to the case studies of Ecole des Mines de
Nantes, France Office building. The results showed that support vector machine
based on relevant data selection method is able to predict the energy
consumption of building with a high accuracy in compare to whole data training.
In addition, relevant data selection method is computationally cheaper (around
8 minute training time) in contrast to whole data training (around 31 hour for
weekend and 116 hour for working days) and reveals realistic control
implementation for online system as well.Comment: Proceedings of ECOS 2015-The 28th International Conference on
Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy
Systems , Jun 2015, Pau, Franc
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Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning
Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty
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