Modelling individual accessibility using Bayesian networks: A capabilities approach

The ability of an individual to reach and engage with basic services such as healthcare, education and activities such as employment is a fundamental aspect of their wellbeing. Within transport studies, accessibility is considered to be a valuable concept that can be used to generate insights on issues related to social exclusion due to limited access to transport options. Recently, researchers have attempted to link accessibility with popular theories of social justice such as Amartya Sen's Capabilities Approach (CA). Such studies have set the theoretical foundations on the way accessibility can be expressed through the CA, however, attempts to operationalise this approach remain fragmented and predominantly qualitative in nature. The data landscape however, has changed over the last decade providing an unprecedented quantity of transport related data at an individual level. Mobility data from dfferent sources have the potential to contribute to the understanding of individual accessibility and its relation to phenomena such as social exclusion. At the same time, the unlabelled nature of such data present a considerable challenge, as a non-trivial step of inference is required if one is to deduce the transportation modes used and activities reached. This thesis develops a novel framework for accessibility modelling using the CA as theoretical foundation. Within the scope of this thesis, this is used to assess the levels of equality experienced by individuals belonging to different population groups and its link to transport related social exclusion. In the proposed approach, activities reached and transportation modes used are considered manifestations of individual hidden capabilities. A modelling framework using dynamic Bayesian networks is developed to quantify and assess the relationships and dynamics of the different components in fluencing the capabilities sets. The developed approach can also provide inferential capabilities for activity type and transportation mode detection, making it suitable for use with unlabelled mobility data such as Automatic Fare Collection Systems (AFC), mobile phone and social media. The usefulness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through three case studies. In the first case study, mobile phone data were used to explore the interaction of individuals with different public transportation modes. It was found that assumptions about individual mobility preferences derived from travel surveys may not always hold, providing evidence for the significance of personal characteristics to the choices of transportation modes. In the second case, the proposed framework is used for activity type inference, testing the limits of accuracy that can be achieved from unlabelled social media data. A combination of the previous case studies, the third case further defines a generative model which is used to develop the proposed capabilities approach to accessibility model. Using data from London's Automatic Fare Collection Systems (AFC) system, the elements of the capabilities set are explicitly de ned and linked with an individual's personal characteristics, external variables and functionings. The results are used to explore the link between social exclusion and transport disadvantage, revealing distinct patterns that can be attributed to different accessibility levels

Assessing the impact of recent fare policy changes on public transport demand in London

Thesis (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 170-172).Public transit agencies across the world have been moving towards electronic ticketing technology and to take advantage of the greater flexibility, have made changes in fare structure. Over the last decade, Transport for London has implemented the Oyster smart card based electronic ticketing system (including the Pay-as-you-Go stored credit payment facility) on the major public transport modes: buses, the Underground and National Rail, and there have also been changes in the fare structure on these modes. This thesis explores the impacts that fare structure and technology changes (known here as fare policy changes) have had on user sensitivity to fares (fare elasticities), ticket usage and demand for travel on public transport modes in London. The first case study uses a log-linear regression model on annual-differenced data to estimate demand on buses and the Underground in London. The findings from this research suggest that London bus and Underground user fare elasticities have not changed significantly since 2000. The implementation of the Oystercard Pay-as-you-Go system increased demand on the Underground, while the effect on buses could not be conclusively estimated. The second case study uses ticket sales and journey data from before and after the implementation of the Oyster electronic ticketing system on National Rail to assess the impact on ticket use, growth in travel and modal switching. The results show that, within 9 months of the implementation, Oystercard Pay-as-you-Go journeys on National Rail tripled, while single or return journeys on paper tickets halved. Further, after controlling for other changes, the electronic ticketing system increased travel on National Rail by around 3%. This increase resulted from growth in public transport travel and possibly from switching from other public transport modes. This research is of value to policy makers in public transport agencies since it suggests that electronic ticketing systems, if implemented properly, may increase public transport demand. The findings also suggest that smart card payment systems offering stored credit and multi-journey passes are preferred by users over less convenient ticket media such as limited paper tickets.by Nihit Jain.S.M.in Transportatio

Use of automatically collected data for the preliminary impact analysis of the East London Line extension

Thesis (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 151-154).Data from public transport automated data collection (ADC) systems are now widely used in academic research and are beginning to be used for planning purposes. ADC systems provide ubiquitous and inexpensive, if limited, data streams for planning purposes. Since ADC data systems have been around for some time and are deployed by many large public transport agencies, the resulting data can be used for before and after impact analyses of changes in the transportation system. This research explores the use of automatically collected data to understand the impacts of a major public transport infrastructure investment on a complex existing network. The research presents the methods, using automatically collected data, to determine the impacts on multiple modes of transportation and the preliminary results of the impact of the introduction of the East London Line Extension. The East London Line is still in the early stages of growth and first and second order impacts continue to develop. The line is carrying an average of approximately 70,000 passengers per day and ridership continues to increase monthly. The East London Line is an important public transport crossing of the Thames River and a crucial role as a distributer to and from intersecting rail lines. It was estimated that between 28 to 32 percent of the daily weekday passenger journeys are new journeys to the public transport system. There is a change in ridership on many bus routes that run through the area served by the East London line. A more detailed analysis on four bus routes that run parallel to the East London Line and two bus routes that act as feeder routes show mixed results by route, direction, and time period. The mixed results lead us to believe that based on this preliminary impact analysis, the East London line can have a positive and negative impact on bus ridership but the impacts are most likely route, route segment, time of day, and direction specific. Analysis of disaggregate data showed that journey frequency of East London Line patrons increased at a higher rate than for the control panel. It is clear that ADC system data provides a cost effective means to capture a breath and depth of data suitable for impact analyses.by Albert Ng.S.M.in Transportatio

Contactless prepaid and bankcards in transit fare collection systems

Thesis (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and, (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-113).Many public transit agencies are considering direct acceptance of contactless credit and debit cards (collectively contactless bankcards) at gates in rail stations and on board buses. Concerns have been raised about riders who may not have or may not want to use contactless bankcards for transit fare payments. This thesis presents contactless prepaid cards as a potential fare payment option to meet the needs of these riders, and assesses customer attitudes toward contactless prepaid cards and bankcards. Two case studies are presented of transit agencies planning to implement contactless bankcard fare collection systems: Transport for London and the Chicago Transit Authority. A framework for evaluation of transit prepaid card options addresses two independent policy decisions: card function, or how the prepaid card may be used, and program management, the companies that partner with transit agencies to provide prepaid cards. The two card function options are: open loop cards, accepted at any merchant, or closed loop cards, used only for transit. Five possible program management options are addressed: the transit agency, bill payment companies, prepaid card companies, general payment card companies, and financial institutions. Options are analyzed along three primary dimensions: customer experience, cost, and geographic coverage of card servicing locations. The results show that closed loop and open loop cards may potentially have comparable costs for both the Chicago Transit Authority and Transport for London, although there is substantial uncertainty since no programs have yet been implemented. The cost and revenue uncertainties are higher for open loop cards than for closed loop cards. For all program management options, both transit agencies appear to face a tradeoff between costs and geographic coverage. Transit agency survey data is used to assess demand for contactless prepaid and bankcards. The results show that a small percentage of riders lacks both credit and debit cards and may have to use prepaid cards. Moreover, the majority of riders in London prefer closed loop prepaid cards, and most riders in Chicago prefer current fare media over bankcards. Discrete choice models are used to analyze factors influencing the choice between bankcards, prepaid cards, and other fare media for riders in London and Chicago. While trends among ridership groups are not strong, age and availability of payment instruments appear to influence fare media choice.by Candace Elizabeth Brakewood.S.M.in Technology and PolicyS.M.in Transportatio

Towards Mobility-as-a-Service: a cross-case analysis of public authorities' roles in the development of ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes

Automobiles have become counter-productive. Negative externalities resulting from car use have overcome the social benefits automobiles brought when initially introduced. Having shaped most contemporary transportation systems, the automobility regime is known to be hard to revert from. However, as all path-dependent systems, automobility can be subject to tipping points. Among other elements, the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have enabled the development of new solutions having the potential to support a paradigm shift. At the forefront of ICT-enabled developments, so-called ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes have emerged, encompassing smart transportation cards, Integrated Mobility Platforms and Mobility-as-a-Service, that bundle different transport offers together and aim at providing users with a mobility solution of a level of service competitive with the one provided by private cars, ultimately holding the promise of supporting a shift from vehicle ownership to mobility usership and potentially help unlatching transportation systems from the current automobility lock-in. However, most of those solutions are being proposed by the private sector, which often has different interests than the public sector. While the organization of transport usually falls under the responsibility of public actors, new governance structures are needed in order to make the most out of ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes. Hence, this thesis aims at shedding light on the role that public bodies are playing into the birth of smart cards, integrated mobility platforms and MaaS, and more specifically on the way they are governing their development. A case study strategy was employed in this thesis, where, building on grey literature and semi-structured interviews, the cases of smart cards development in London, integrated mobility platform unfolding in Vienna and Mobility-as-a-Service expansion in Helsinki served as empirical material. Based on a cross-case analysis conducted using governance and socio-technical transition literature, the main findings of this thesis are that (i) public transport authorities and state-owned railway undertakings are usually quite reluctant to ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes brought by external actors and prefer developing those by themselves and stay in control or avoid collaborating; (ii) central governments can act as true enablers by developing visions including strong quantitative targets, showing political support for those solutions, acting as matchmakers between public and private bodies, developing legislation, providing funding and steering, and using network governance to make incumbent regime actors change behaviors; (iii) city governments have a greater role to play by setting stronger quantitative-based visions and stop governing by laissez-faire; (iv) ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes should not be understood as magic bullets and must be combined with demand management policies to be truly effective. By providing thick-descriptions of the nuts and bolts of smart cards, IMP and MaaS development, this thesis contributes to the literature on transport integration, transport governance and socio-technical transitions, and contributes to practice by suggesting fourteen recommendations for public authorities interested in a sustainable and impactful development of ICT-supported integrated mobility schemes

The use of Uberpool and its Relationship with Public Transport -A London case study

The growth of novel forms of shared and non-shared ridesourcing services such as Uberpool and UberX, are nowadays a common feature of transport options in many cities globally (i.e., London). The rapid growth of these new services is creating challenges and opportunities for transport authorities and policymakers who so far have been slow to respond to policy and operational demands. There has been much publicity about the possible effects of Uber services in London and ongoing debates among the transport authorities and other key stakeholders on how or if these services should be managed or regulated. However, with the absence of empirical data and a clear understanding of the current and future implications for traditional PT modes, the consequences of ridesourcing services on London’s transport system are not evident. This study provides insights about the usage and user characteristics of ridesourcing services and how such services work with PT modes and explores the implications of Uberpool on conventional PT in terms of policy and operations. The literature review for this study revealed that empirical research on shared ridesourcing has been limited, mostly because of limited data availability and as a result, effects on other modes such as PT are less understood. Current literature indicates some of the key factors in ridesourcing adoption, include the socio-demographic of users, convenience, cost, and general changing attitudes towards sharing. The current literature on ridesourcing shows that most of the existing research the topic was primarily undertaken in a North American (i.e., the USA) perspective and the findings do not fully capture the policy, and operational issues that relate specifically to a European or UK context. Furthermore, shared ridesourcing is not adequately addressed in the current literature, particularly its impact and relationship with PT services. As such, it is not fully understood, and there is no consensus on how transport authorities and policymakers should deal with these new services. In addition, previous research mainly used a singular approach or considered only one stakeholder (i.e., the users or drivers) and thus did not fully consider the perspectives from all interested parties such as the users, drivers, service providers (TNCs), policymakers and transport authorities and other transport mode operators. To achieve the study objectives and address the research gaps, the following three primary research questions were established. 1. How are UberX and Uberpool currently used in a city like London? 2. What attracts people to Uberpool in a city like London? 3. How do transport authorities and the conventional public transport industry deal with Uberpool in a city like London? For this study, a mixed-methods approach involving the collection of quantitative and qualitative data was used. The quantitative data were collected using a survey of UberX and Uberpool users in London, which yielded 907 responses. The qualitative data were collected using a combination of interviews with 31 different transport policymakers, PT operators and other key stakeholders and focus groups with 28 London Uber drivers. The interview and focus group data were analysed using a thematic approach to find meaningful themes in the data. The survey data was initially analysed using descriptive statistical analysis and cross-tabulation. Moreover, several categorical regression (CATREG) models were developed for the survey data to investigate a greater understanding of the key factors that influenced how and why Uberpool services were used in London. The results indicated that most Uberpool users in London were employed (77.4% of respondents) and educated to degree level (89.5%), with 60% of respondents using PT (i.e., Buses, Trains/Tube) for same or similar trips before Uber and 49.9% of trip purposes were going to “work, college/school, or PT station/stop”. The key factors which influenced a passengers’ decision to use Uberpool instead of PT modes included “perception on safety, compared to PT modes”, “employment status”, “age group”, “trip purpose”, and “car ownership at present”. The results revealed that Uberpool was popular with students, travellers making social (i.e., night out) or long-distance trips. The findings highlight that transport authorities were currently poorly equipped (for various reasons) to deal with these new on-demand services, and there was a need to develop specific transport policy measures and regulations for ridesourcing services which considered input from all key stakeholders, including service providers, PT operators, the users, and ridesourcing drivers. At the time of completion, this was the first study in the UK that used empirical data collected from key stakeholders (i.e., users, Uber drivers and policymakers) to investigate how shared (Uberpool) and non-shared (UberX) ridesourcing services are used and its relationship with traditional PT modes. The findings present important insights into the implications of ridesourcing services for traditional PT, active mode, and the influencing factors on why users adopt ridesourcing instead of other modes and the findings can support policymakers and transport authorities during policy and regulation development. In this study, several key recommendations are offered, including the need to integrate ridesourcing services with other modes of transport in London (e.g., the PT) and providing guidance to ridesourcing and PT operators on how best these services should be integrated (e.g., payment systems) to complement one another and reduce negative impacts the city’s PT network. Furthermore, suggestions on ridesourcing data collection and monitoring methods are presented to address the lack of ridesourcing data, which remains a significant issue in London. In addition, suggestions are made for developing specific regulations for ridesourcing, since there are currently no specific regulations covering ridesourcing in London, and these services are operating under the PHV regulations, which was not developed for these types of services and thus did not address the challenges brought forth by shared and non-shared ridesourcing services. The development of new ridesourcing regulations should involve consultations with all key stakeholders and should aim to maximise the opportunities offered by ridesourcing services whilst addressing the existing regulatory gaps in the taxi and PHV legislation, including driver standards, welfare (i.e., maximum working hours and sick pay) and defining clear responsibilities for all those who are involved in providing ridesourcing. Considering this study’s scope, several opportunities for future research are identified, including future research to understand inequalities in accessing and using ridesourcing services, particularly for the elderly and those who do not have access to the internet or smartphones. Moreover, additional studies are suggested to clarify the role of Uberpool services in fulfilling first and last-mile trips, including how often PT passengers used shared ridesourcing to connect to/from PT modes (i.e., the tube, trains, or buses). Further research is recommended to investigate the broader effects of all the different ridesourcing services on London’s traffic congestion and the wider economic implications from these services, including benefits, disbenefits and the total costs of these services for the city, users, and the drivers

Automated inference of full passenger journeys using fare-transaction and vehicle-location data

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning; and, (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2012.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 147-155).Urban public transport providers have historically planned and managed their networks and services with limited knowledge of their customers' travel patterns. While ticket gates and bus fareboxes yield counts of passenger activity in specific stations and vehicles, the relationships between these transactions-the origins, interchanges, and destinations of individual passengers-have typically been acquired only through costly and therefore small and infrequent rider surveys. Building upon recent work on the utilization of automated fare-collection and vehicle-location systems for passenger-behavior analysis, this thesis presents methods for inferring the full journeys of all riders on a large public transport network. Using complete daily sets of data from London's Oyster farecard and iBus vehicle-location system, boarding and alighting times and locations are inferred for individual bus passengers, interchanges are inferred between passenger trips of various public modes, and full-journey origin-interchange-destination matrices are constructed, which include the estimated flows of non-farecard passengers. The outputs are validated against surveys and traditional origin-destination matrices, and the software implementation demonstrates that the procedure is efficient enough to be performed daily, enabling transport providers to observe travel behavior on all services at all times.by Jason B. Gordon.S.M.in TransportationM.C.P