The Market Reaction to Trump\u27s Trade War

This event study looks at the market reaction to the global trade tensions that began in the first half of 2018. The events regarding new developments around the use of tariffs are organized in chronological order, and the stocks of certain impacted companies are looked at to see if they were positively or negatively affected by the news. To summarize the market reaction to tariffs, I use a zero cost portfolio consisting of long positions in those expected to be positively impacted and short positions in those expected to be negatively impacted. If this portfolio sees a larger return on the day of a given event, it is considered that the market reacted more severely to the news. For a further breakdown, the events are grouped together by the countries involved with the event and by the type of event. I look at tariffs imposed by the United States, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and China. The event types include announcements of plans for new tariffs, announcements of exemptions from tariffs, and the formal implementation of tariffs. I find that the most significant market reaction took place in the early months of the trade war, which is evident in that there appears to be the widest spread in returns between those positively and those negatively impacted during this time. As the trade war dragged on in 2018, tariffs were imposed on a broader range of products, and the market reaction became less severe. This information could be useful to traders and asset managers going forward as it appears much of the impact of these tariffs is already reflected in stock prices

Cultural Influnces on Risk Tolerance and Portfolio Creation

We extend existing research that examines the impact of culture on risk tolerance. Using surveys completed by Chinese and American students, we find, consistent with previous studies, that Chinese students perceive themselves as more risk tolerant. However, we find that Chinese students are less consistent in matching their perceived tolerance levels with actual scores from a standard risk tolerance assessment. Further, we also examine mock portfolios created by the respondents and find no evidence that Chinese students create portfolios that are riskier than their American counterparts. Our findings suggest that differences in risk tolerance are at least partially a product of culture, but such differences may not always translate into actual investment decisions

How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?

We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive sample of CDS spreads for 26 developed and emerging-market countries. Sovereign credit spreads are surprisingly highly correlated, with just three principal components accounting for more than 50 percent of their variation. Sovereign credit spreads are generally more related to the U.S. stock and high-yield bond markets, global risk premia, and capital flows than they are to their own local economic measures. We find that the excess returns from investing in sovereign credit are largely compensation for bearing global risk, and that there is little or no country-specific credit risk premium. A significant amount of the variation in sovereign credit returns can be forecast using U.S. equity, volatility, and bond market risk premia.

Oil price risk and emerging stock markets

This paper uses an international multi-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model that allows for both unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and emerging stock market returns. In general we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets. Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and policy makers.Emerging markets; market risk; oil price risk

The opportunity cost of negative screening in socially responsible investing

This paper investigates the impact of negative screening on the investment universe as well as on financial performance. We come up with a novel identification process and as such depart from mainstream socially responsible investing literature by concentrating on individual firms’ conduct and by studying a much wider range of issues. Firstly, we study the size and financial performance of fourteen potentially controversial issues: abortion, adult entertainment, alcohol, animal testing, contraceptives, controversial weapons, fur, gambling, genetic engineering, meat, nuclear power, pork, (embryonic) stem cells, and tobacco. We investigate an international sample of more than 1,600 stocks for more than twenty years. We then analyze the impact of applying negative screens to a market portfolio. Our findings suggest that the choice for negative screening strategies does matter for the size of the investment universe as well as for risk-adjusted return performance. Investing in controversial stocks in many cases results in additional risk-adjusted returns, whereas excluding them may reduce financial performance. These findings suggest that there are opportunity costs to negative screening.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Exchange Rate Regimes, Globalisation, and the Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets

This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Since there is evidence that a fixed exchange rate regime reduces the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors, the tentative conclusion is that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets.Exchange rate regimes; Development economics

Global and local sources of risk in Eastern European emerging stock markets

We study a pricing model for global and local sources of risk in six Eastern European emerging stock markets. Utilizing GMM estimation and an unconditional asset-pricing framework with and without time-varying betas, we perform estimations based on monthly data from 1996 to 2007 for Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Russia. Most of these markets display considerable segmentation; the aggregate emerging market risk, as opposed to global market risk, is the significant driver for their stock market returns. It also appears that currency risk is priced into stock prices. The difference between local and global interest rates can be used to model the time-variation in the betas for both sources of risk.market integration; segmentation; asset pricing; emerging markets; Eastern Europe country risk