An Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Factors Affecting Aircraft Conflicts Based on Simulation Modelling

The demand for air travel worldwide continues to grow at a rapid rate, especially in Europe and the United States. In Europe, the demand exceeded predictions with a real annual growth of 7.1% in the period 1985-1990, against a prediction of 2.4%. By the year 2010, the demand is expected to double from the 1990 level. Within the UK international scheduled passenger traffic is predicted to increase, on average, by 5.8 per cent per year between 1999 and 2003. The demand has not been matched by availability of capacity. In Western Europe many of the largest airports suffer from runway capacity constraints. Europe also suffers from an en-route airspace capacity constraint, which is determined by the workload of the air traffic controllers, i.e. the physical and mental work that controllers must undertake to safely conduct air traffic under their jurisdiction through en-route airspace. The annual cost to Europe due to air traffic inefficiency and congestion in en-route airspace is estimated to be 5 billion US Dollars, primarily due to delays caused by non-optimal route structures and reduced productivity of controllers due to equipment inefficiencies. Therefore, to in order to decrease the total delay, an increase in en-route capacity is of paramount importance. At a global scale and in the early 1980s, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) recognised that the traditional air traffic control (ATC) systems would not cope with the growth in demand for capacity. Consequently new technologies and procedures have been proposed to enable ATC to cope with this demand, e.g. satellite-based system concept to meet the future civil aviation requirements for communication, navigation and surveillance/ air traffic management (CNS/ATM). In Europe, the organisation EUROCONTROL (established in 1960 to co-ordinate European ATM) proposed a variety of measures to increase the capacity of en-route airspace. A key change envisaged is the increasing delegation of responsibilities for control to flight crew, by the use of airborne separation assurance between aircraft, leading eventually to ?free flight? airspace. However, there are major concerns regarding the safety of operations in ?free flight? airspace. The safety of such airspace can be investigated by analysing the factors that affect conflict occurrence, i.e. a loss of the prescribed separation between two aircraft in airspace. This paper analyses the factors affecting conflict occurrence in current airspace and future free flight airspace by using a simulation model of air traffic controller workload, the RAMS model. The paper begins with a literature review of the factors that affect conflict occurrence. This is followed by a description of the RAMS model and of its use in this analysis. The airspace simulated is the Mediterranean Free Flight region, and the major attributes of this region and of the traffic demand patterns are outlined next. In particular a day?s air traffic is simulated in the two airspace scenarios, and rules for conflict detection and resolution are carefully defined. The following section outlines the framework for analysing the output from the simulations, using negative binomial (NB) and generalised negative binomial (GNB) regression, and discusses the estimation methods required. The next section presents the results of the regression analysis, taking into account the spatio-temporal nature of the data. The following section presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal pattern of conflicts in the two airspace scenarios across a day, highlighting possible metrics to indicate this. The paper concludes with future research directions based upon this analysis.

Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie

Human factors aspects of air traffic control

An overview of human factors problems associated with the operation of present and future air traffic control systems is presented. A description is included of those activities and tasks performed by air traffic controllers at each operational position within the present system. Judgemental data obtained from controllers concerning psychological dimensions related to these tasks and activities are also presented. The analysis includes consideration of psychophysiological dimensions of human performance. The role of the human controller in present air traffic control systems and his predicted role in future systems is described, particularly as that role changes as the result of the system's evolution towards a more automated configuration. Special attention is directed towards problems of staffing, training, and system operation. A series of ten specific research and development projects are recommended and suggested work plans for their implementation are included

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

In the commercial aviation domain, large volumes of data are collected and analyzed on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that contribute to routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of non- representative safety data. Analysis of aviation accident data suggests that human error is implicated in up to 80% of accidents, which has been used to justify future visions for aviation in which the roles of human operators are greatly diminished or eliminated in the interest of creating a safer aviation system. However, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant and largely unrecognized risk when making policy decisions about human roles and responsibilities. Opportunities exist to leverage the vast amount of data that has already been collected, or could be easily obtained, to increase our understanding of human contributions to things going right in commercial aviation. The principal focus of this assessment was to identify current gaps and explore methods for identifying human success data generated by the aviation system, from personnel and within the supporting infrastructure

Air Traffic Safety: continued evolution or a new Paradigm.

The context here is Transport Risk Management. Is the philosophy of Air Traffic Safety different from other modes of transport? – yes, in many ways, it is. The focus is on Air Traffic Management (ATM), covering (eg) air traffic control and airspace structures, which is the part of the aviation system that is most likely to be developed through new paradigms. The primary goal of the ATM system is to control accident risk. ATM safety has improved over the decades for many reasons, from better equipment to additional safety defences. But ATM safety targets, improving on current performance, are now extremely demanding. What are the past and current methodologies for ATM risk assessment; and will they work effectively for the kinds of future systems that people are now imagining and planning? The title contrasts ‘Continued Evolution’ and a ‘New Paradigm’. How will system designers/operators assure safety with traffic growth and operational/technical changes that are more than continued evolution from the current system? What are the design implications for ‘new paradigms’, such as the USA’s ‘Next Generation Air Transportation System’ (NextGen) and Europe’s Single European Sky ATM Research Programme (SESAR)? Achieving and proving safety for NextGen and SESAR is an enormously tough challenge. For example, it will need to cover system resilience, human/automation issues, software/hardware performance/ground/air protection systems. There will be a need for confidence building programmes regarding system design/resilience, eg Human-in-the-Loop simulations with ‘seeded errors’

Mitigating Complexity in Air Traffic Control: The Role of Structure-Based Abstractions

Cognitive complexity is a limiting factor on the capacity and efficiency of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system. A multi-faceted cognitive ethnography approach shows that structure, defined as the physical and informational elements that organize and arrange the ATC environment, plays an important role in helping controllers mitigate cognitive complexity. Key influences of structure in the operational environment and on controller cognitive processes are incorporated into a cognitive process model. Controllers are hypothesized to internalize the structural influences in the form of abstractions simplifying their working mental model of the situation. By simplifying their working mental model, these structure-based abstractions reduce cognitive complexity.FAA grants 96-C-001 and # 06-G-006

Experimental Studies of Cognitively Based Air Traffic Control Complexity Metrics for Future Operational Concepts

New procedures and technologies of Air Traffic Control (ATC) under development in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) will change controllers' tasks, roles, and responsibilities. However, cognitive complexity will remain one of the limiting factors in future system's capacity and none of existing complexity metrics can be directly extended to evaluate cognitive complexity under future operational concepts. Therefore, complexity metrics, applicable to future operational concepts, need to be developed. This thesis developed the structure for a cognitively based complexity metric, Modified Aircraft Count (MAC). Cognitive complexity is decomposed based on individual aircraft complexity factors and sector specific factors. The complexity contribution of each aircraft is summed and adjusted by sector level complexity factors. Cognitive principles, such as controller strategies, may be incorporated in aircraft specific complexity factors and sector level complexity factors. To investigate complexity factors in Modified Aircraft Count, two simulations were developed to explore two proposed NextGen operational concepts, including Time-Based Control at a Metering Fix and Dynamic Route Structure Control. Two experiments were designed to evaluate controller performance and subjective workload under the simulated operational concepts. The Time-Based Control at a Metering Fix was found to have enhanced schedule conformance, reduced operational errors and lower perceived complexity. The Dynamic Route Structure Control introduced longer hand-off acceptance times, however, no other significant changes of controller performance and subjective workload were found. A new complexity probe technique was developed and applied in the two experiments to explore individual aircraft complexity factors in Modified Aircraft Count. In the new complexity probe, participants were asked to identify high complexity aircraft from the screen shot of a traffic situation they had experienced. It was shown to be an effective tool to assess aircraft specific complexity factors. Four complexity factors (proximity to other aircraft, membership of a standard flow, proximity to weather, and projected proximity to other aircraft) were examined by the relationship between their corresponding observable factors and high complexity aircraft percentage. The chance of an aircraft being considered as of high complexity increased if the aircraft was closer to another aircraft, off the standard route structure, closer to the area impacted by weather, or more likely to be in a conflict in the future.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under grant NNA06CN23A

The Effect of Automating Routine Tasks on Air Traffic Controller Conflict Detection Performance

The growing demand for air transportation necessitates the integration of automated support tools to assist air traffic controllers in managing the increase in number of flights. Using archival data from a human-in-the-loop simulation, the current study examined the potential consequence of integrating automated support on eight retired air traffic controllers’ performance and workload in current and projected future levels of air traffic. Two-way repeated measures ANOVA were used to examine workload and conflict detection performance across two levels of simulated air traffic density and two levels of automated routine task support. The participant controllers reported significantly higher workload and exhibited a non-significant decrease in conflict detection performance when managing a higher number of aircraft. The decrease in conflict detection performance reached significance only when participant controllers were not assisted by automation. In contrast, participant controllers were slowest to detect conflicts while managing the least number of aircraft and assisted by automation. The results of the current study are mixed; we conclude that automation of routine tasks has the potential to mitigate the increased workload and decreased performance experienced as the number of aircraft increases, certainly over no assistance, but that it may also be disruptive in certain circumstances, such as during low air traffic levels where the controllers may experience underload. More research is needed to identify appropriate levels of automation to achieve the same level of safety seen in today’s air traffic control system

Situational awareness and safety

This paper considers the applicability of situation awareness concepts to safety in the control of complex systems. Much of the research to date has been conducted in aviation, which has obvious safety implications. It is argued that the concepts could be extended to other safety critical domains. The paper presents three theories of situational awareness: the three-level model, the interactive sub-systems approach, and the perceptual cycle. The difference between these theories is the extent to which they emphasise process or product as indicative of situational awareness. Some data from other studies are discussed to consider the negative effects of losing situational awareness, as this has serious safety implications. Finally, the application of situational awareness to system design, and training are presented

Multimodal Neuroergonomic Approaches to Human Behavior and Cognitive Workload in Complex High-Risk Semantically Rich Environments: A Case Study of Local & En-Route Air Traffic Controllers

Fast-paced technology advancements have enabled us to create ecologically valid simulations of high risk, complex, and semantically rich environments in which human interaction and decision-making are the keys to increase system performance. These advances have improved our capabilities of exploring, quantifying, and measuring the underlying mechanisms that guide human behavior using sophisticated neuroergonomic devices; and in turn, improve human performance and reduce human errors. In this thesis, multimodal approaches consisted of a self-report analysis, eye-tracking analysis, and functional near-infrared spectroscopy analysis were used to investigate how veteran local & en-route air traffic controllers carry out their operational tasks. Furthermore, the correlations among the cognitive workload and physiological measures (i.e. eye movement characteristics and brain activities) were investigated. Combining the results of these experiments, we can observe that the multimodal approaches show promise on exploring the underlying mechanisms of workload and human interaction in a complex, high-risk, and semantically rich environment. This is because cognitive workload can be considered as a multidimensional construct and different devices or approaches might be more effective in sensing changes in either the task difficulty or complexity. The results can be used to find ways to better train the novices