On the Estimation of Nonrandom Signal Coefficients from Jittered Samples

This paper examines the problem of estimating the parameters of a bandlimited signal from samples corrupted by random jitter (timing noise) and additive iid Gaussian noise, where the signal lies in the span of a finite basis. For the presented classical estimation problem, the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRB) is computed, and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm approximating the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is developed. Simulations are performed to study the convergence properties of the EM algorithm and compare the performance both against the CRB and a basic linear estimator. These simulations demonstrate that by post-processing the jittered samples with the proposed EM algorithm, greater jitter can be tolerated, potentially reducing on-chip ADC power consumption substantially.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Fisher Information for Inverse Problems and Trace Class Operators

This paper provides a mathematical framework for Fisher information analysis for inverse problems based on Gaussian noise on infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. The covariance operator for the Gaussian noise is assumed to be trace class, and the Jacobian of the forward operator Hilbert-Schmidt. We show that the appropriate space for defining the Fisher information is given by the Cameron-Martin space. This is mainly because the range space of the covariance operator always is strictly smaller than the Hilbert space. For the Fisher information to be well-defined, it is furthermore required that the range space of the Jacobian is contained in the Cameron-Martin space. In order for this condition to hold and for the Fisher information to be trace class, a sufficient condition is formulated based on the singular values of the Jacobian as well as of the eigenvalues of the covariance operator, together with some regularity assumptions regarding their relative rate of convergence. An explicit example is given regarding an electromagnetic inverse source problem with "external" spherically isotropic noise, as well as "internal" additive uncorrelated noise.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Mathematical Physic

Coherent frequentism

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior distribution. The closure of the set of expected losses corresponding to the dual frequentist posteriors constrains decisions without arbitrarily forcing optimization under all circumstances. This decision theory reduces to those that maximize expected utility when the pair of frequentist posteriors is induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when an automatic reduction rule is applied to the pair. In such cases, the resulting frequentist posterior is coherent in the sense that, as a probability distribution of the parameter of interest, it satisfies the axioms of the decision-theoretic and logic-theoretic systems typically cited in support of the Bayesian posterior. Unlike the p-value, the confidence level of an interval hypothesis derived from such a measure is suitable as an estimator of the indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges in sample-space probability to 1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise under general conditions.Comment: The confidence-measure theory of inference and decision is explicitly extended to vector parameters of interest. The derivation of upper and lower confidence levels from valid and nonconservative set estimators is formalize

Statistical applications of the multivariate skew-normal distribution

Azzalini & Dalla Valle (1996) have recently discussed the multivariate skew-normal distribution which extends the class of normal distributions by the addition of a shape parameter. The first part of the present paper examines further probabilistic properties of the distribution, with special emphasis on aspects of statistical relevance. Inferential and other statistical issues are discussed in the following part, with applications to some multivariate statistics problems, illustrated by numerical examples. Finally, a further extension is described which introduces a skewing factor of an elliptical density.Comment: full-length version of the published paper, 32 pages, with 7 figures, uses psfra

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0. [Abridged]Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Matches version accepted for publication by MNRA