Temporal decision making using unsupervised learning

With the explosion of ubiquitous continuous sensing, on-line streaming clustering continues to attract attention. The requirements are that the streaming clustering algorithm recognize and adapt clusters as the data evolves, that anomalies are detected, and that new clusters are automatically formed as incoming data dictate. In this dissertation, we develop a streaming clustering algorithm, MU Streaming Clustering (MUSC), that is based on coupling a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with possibilistic clustering to build an adaptive system for analyzing streaming multi-dimensional activity feature vectors. For this reason, the possibilistic C-Means (PCM) and Automatic Merging Possibilistic Clustering Method (AMPCM) are combined together to cluster the initial data points, detect anomalies and initialize the GMM. MUSC achieves our goals when tested on synthetic and real-life datasets. We also compare MUSC's performance with Sequential k-means (sk-means), Basic Sequential Clustering Algorithm (BSAS), and Modified BSAS (MBSAS) here MUSC shows superiority in the performance and accuracy. The performance of a streaming clustering algorithm needs to be monitored over time to understand the behavior of the streaming data in terms of new emerging clusters and number of outlier data points. Incremental internal Validity Indices (iCVIs) are used to monitor the performance of an on-line clustering algorithm. We study the internal incremental Davies-Bouldin (DB), Xie-Beni (XB), and Dunn internal cluster validity indices in the context of streaming data analysis. We extend the original incremental DB (iDB) to a more general version parameterized by the exponent of membership weights. Then we illustrate how the iDB can be used to analyze and understand the performance of MUSC algorithm. We give examples that illustrate the appearance of a new cluster, the effect of different cluster sizes, handling of outlier data samples, and the effect of the input order on the resultant cluster history. In addition, we investigate the internal incremental Davies-Bouldin (iDB) cluster validity index in the context of big streaming data analysis. We analyze the effect of large numbers of samples on the values of the iCVI (iDB). We also develop online versions of two modified generalized Dunn's indices that can be used for dynamic evaluation of evolving (cluster) structure in streaming data. We argue that this method is a good way to monitor the ongoing performance of online clustering algorithms and we illustrate several types of inferences that can be drawn from such indices. We compare the two new indices to the incremental Xie-Beni and Davies-Bouldin indices, which to our knowledge offer the only comparable approach, with numerical examples on a variety of synthetic and real data sets. We also study the performance of MUSC and iCVIs with big streaming data applications. We show the advantage of iCVIs in monitoring large streaming datasets and in providing useful information about the data stream in terms of emergence of a new structure, amount of outlier data, size of the clusters, and order of data samples in each cluster. We also propose a way to project streaming data into a lower space for cases where the distance measure does not perform as expected in the high dimensional space. Another example of streaming is the data acivity data coming from TigerPlace and other elderly residents' apartments in and around Columbia. MO. TigerPlace is an eldercare facility that promotes aging-in-place in Columbia Missouri. Eldercare monitoring using non-wearable sensors is a candidate solution for improving care and reducing costs. Abnormal sensor patterns produced by certain resident behaviors could be linked to early signs of illness. We propose an unsupervised method for detecting abnormal behavior patterns based on a new context preserving representation of daily activities. A preliminary analysis of the method was conducted on data collected in TigerPlace. Sensor firings of each day are converted into sequences of daily activities. Then, building a histogram from the daily sequences of a resident, we generate a single data vector representing that day. Using the proposed method, a day with hundreds of sequences is converted into a single data point representing that day and preserving the context of the daily routine at the same time. We obtained an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.9 in detecting days where elder adults need to be assessed. Our approach outperforms other approaches on the same datset. Using the context preserving representation, we develoed a multi-dimensional alert system to improve the existing single-dimensional alert system in TigerPlace. Also, this represenation is used to develop a framework that utilizes sensor sequence similarity and medical concepts extracted from the EHR to automatically inform the nursing staff when health problems are detected. Our context preserving representation of daily activities is used to measure the similarity between the sensor sequences of different days. The medical concepts are extracted from the nursing notes using MetamapLite, an NLP tool included in the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS). The proposed idea is validated on two pilot datasets from twelve Tiger Place residents, with a total of 5810 sensor days out of which 1966 had nursing notes

Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting

Incremental Cluster Validity Indices for Online Learning of Hard Partitions: Extensions and Comparative Study

Validation is one of the most important aspects of clustering, particularly when the user is designing a trustworthy or explainable system. However, most clustering validation approaches require batch calculation. This is an important gap because of the value of clustering in real-time data streaming and other online learning applications. Therefore, interest has grown in providing online alternatives for validation. This paper extends the incremental cluster validity index (iCVI) family by presenting incremental versions of Calinski-Harabasz (iCH), Pakhira-Bandyopadhyay-Maulik (iPBM), WB index (iWB), Silhouette (iSIL), Negentropy Increment (iNI), Representative Cross Information Potential (irCIP), Representative Cross Entropy (irH), and Conn_Index (iConn_Index). This paper also provides a thorough comparative study of correct, under- and over-partitioning on the behavior of these iCVIs, the Partition Separation (PS) index as well as four recently introduced iCVIs: incremental Xie-Beni (iXB), incremental Davies-Bouldin (iDB), and incremental generalized Dunn\u27s indices 43 and 53 (iGD43 and iGD53). Experiments were carried out using a framework that was designed to be as agnostic as possible to the clustering algorithms. The results on synthetic benchmark data sets showed that while evidence of most under-partitioning cases could be inferred from the behaviors of the majority of these iCVIs, over-partitioning was found to be a more challenging problem, detected by fewer of them. Interestingly, over-partitioning, rather then under-partitioning, was more prominently detected on the real-world data experiments within this study. The expansion of iCVIs provides significant novel opportunities for assessing and interpreting the results of unsupervised lifelong learning in real-time, wherein samples cannot be reprocessed due to memory and/or application constraints

Incremental Cluster Validity Index-Guided Online Learning for Performance and Robustness to Presentation Order

In streaming data applications, the incoming samples are processed and discarded, and therefore, intelligent decision-making is crucial for the performance of lifelong learning systems. In addition, the order in which the samples arrive may heavily affect the performance of incremental learners. The recently introduced incremental cluster validity indices (iCVIs) provide valuable aid in addressing such class of problems. Their primary use case has been cluster quality monitoring; nonetheless, they have been recently integrated in a streaming clustering method. In this context, the work presented, here, introduces the first adaptive resonance theory (ART)-based model that uses iCVIs for unsupervised and semi-supervised online learning. Moreover, it shows how to use iCVIs to regulate ART vigilance via an iCVI-based match tracking mechanism. The model achieves improved accuracy and robustness to ordering effects by integrating an online iCVI module as module B of a topological ART predictive mapping (TopoARTMAP)—thereby being named iCVI-TopoARTMAP—and using iCVI-driven postprocessing heuristics at the end of each learning step. The online iCVI module provides assignments of input samples to clusters at each iteration in accordance to any of the several iCVIs. The iCVI-TopoARTMAP maintains useful properties shared by the ART predictive mapping (ARTMAP) models, such as stability, immunity to catastrophic forgetting, and the many-to-one mapping capability via the map field module. The performance and robustness to the presentation order of iCVI-TopoARTMAP were evaluated via experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets