Analysing Differential School Effectiveness Through Multilevel and Agent-Based Modelling

MultilevelModels(MLM)have pioneered the analysis of hierarchical data of two or more levels. Agent-Based Models (ABM) are also used to analyse social phenomena in which there are two or more levels involved. This paper addresses a comparison between MLM and ABM. To provide a basis of comparison, we focus on differential school effectiveness analysis, where MLM has been well studied, using data from the London Educational Authority’s Junior Project. A MLM is fitted and an ABM of pupils’ educational attainment using a social network structure is built. The paper reports the results of both models and compares their performances in terms of predictive and explanatory power. Although the fitted MLM outperforms the proposed ABM, the latter still offers a reasonable fit and provides a causal mechanism to explain differences in school performance that is absent in the MLM

Agent-based Classroom Environment Simulation: the Effect of Disruptive Schoolchildren’s Behaviour versus Teacher Control over Neighbours

Schoolchildren's academic progress is known to be affected by the classroom environment. It is important for teachers and administrators to under-stand their pupils' status and how various factors in the classroom may affect them, as it can help them adjust pedagogical interventions and management styles. In this study, we expand a novel agent-based model of classroom interac-tions of our design, towards a more efficient model, enriched with further param-eters of peers and teacher’s characteristics, which we believe renders a more re-alistic setting. Specifically, we explore the effect of disruptive neighbours and teacher control. The dataset used for the design of our model consists of 65,385 records, which represent 3,315 classes in 2007, from 2,040 schools in the UK

AGENT-BASED MODELING AND SIMULATION APPROACHES IN STEM EDUCATION RESEARCH

The development of best practices that deliver quality STEM education to all students, while minimizing achievement gaps, have been solicited by several national agencies. ABMS is a feasible approach to provide insight into global behavior based upon the interactions amongst agents and environments. In this review, we systematically surveyed several modeling and simulation approaches and discussed their applications to the evaluation of relevant theories in STEM education. It was found that ABMS is optimal to simulate STEM education hypotheses, as ABMS will sensibly present emergent theories and causation in STEM education phenomena if the model is properly validated and calibrated

Application of geographic information systems and simulation modelling to dental public health: Where next?

Public health research in dentistry has used geographic information systems since the 1960s. Since then, the methods used in the field have matured, moving beyond simple spatial associations to the use of complex spatial statistics and, on occasions, simulation modelling. Many analyses are often descriptive in nature; however, and the use of more advanced spatial simulation methods within dental public health remains rare, despite the potential they offer the field. This review introduces a new approach to geographical analysis of oral health outcomes in neighbourhoods and small area geographies through two novel simulation methods-spatial microsimulation and agent-based modelling. Spatial microsimulation is a population synthesis technique, used to combine survey data with Census population totals to create representative individual-level population datasets, allowing for the use of individual-level data previously unavailable at small spatial scales. Agent-based models are computer simulations capable of capturing interactions and feedback mechanisms, both of which are key to understanding health outcomes. Due to these dynamic and interactive processes, the method has an advantage over traditional statistical techniques such as regression analysis, which often isolate elements from each other when testing for statistical significance. This article discusses the current state of spatial analysis within the dental public health field, before reviewing each of the methods, their applications, as well as their advantages and limitations. Directions and topics for future research are also discussed, before addressing the potential to combine the two methods in order to further utilize their advantages. Overall, this review highlights the promise these methods offer, not just for making methodological advances, but also for adding to our ability to test and better understand theoretical concepts and pathways

Taking control: citizens, corruption and collective civic action in Africa

With the failure of state-focused anti-corruption reform packages to reduce systemic corruption, the role of citizens in anti-corruption efforts has gained traction in academia and policy-making quarters. Yet, some of the emerging literature questions the prospect of citizens’ demand for accountability in places where corruption is entrenched. In such settings, high perceptions of corruption can reinforce the notion that most people are likely to act corruptly, undermining belief in the ability and willingness of citizens as well as government to tackle corruption. Nevertheless, some of the countries perceived to be highly corrupt have experienced frequent episodes of collective resistance to abuses of power. This has raised a possibility that exposure to corruption can in fact provoke the willingness to get involved in efforts to bring it under control. Furthermore, it seems that there are contextual conditions (other than country-level corruption) that shape the impact of subjective perceptions as well as direct experience of corruption on propensity to engage in anti-corruption tactics based on collective action. Using analysis of nationally representative public opinion data covering 35 African countries, this dissertation examines individual and contextual level conditions under which perceptions of corruption and personal experiences of bribery might encourage ordinary people to support citizen-centred and collective action methods of curbing corruption. It is the first study to utilise a data set of this magnitude to study the mobilisation potential of exposure to corruption in the African context. One of the key findings is that across different statistical conditions, an increasing experience of paying bribes fosters the support for the use of citizen-centred and collective action methods of anti-corruption. Importantly, there is strong evidence that an increasing frequency of paying bribes is likely to have the same impact in different countries. The effect of the perception of corruption is more ambiguous and indeed strongly influenced by observed and unobserved country-level conditions. These contextual factors include country-level poverty and state-level clientelism. Apart from a focus on the effects of individual-level corruption, the analysis zeroes-in on the extent to which the collective action that arises in highly clientelistic societies represents a demand for impartiality — a lynchpin of good governance and anti-corruption civic engagement

A Cognitive Agent Computing-Based Model For The Primary School Student Migration Problem Using A Descriptive Agent-Based Approach

Students' migration from public to private schools, due to lack of school performance of public schools, is one of the major issues faced by the Government of Punjab to provide compulsory and quality education at low cost. Due to complex adaptive nature of educational system, interdependencies with society, constant feedback loops conventional linear regression methods, for evaluation of effective performance, are ineffective or costly to solve the issue. Linear regression techniques present the static view of the system, which are not enough to understand the complex dynamic nature of educational paradigm. We have presented a Cognitive Agent Computing-Based Model for the School Student Migration Problem Using a Descriptive Agent-Based Modeling approach to understand the causes-effects relationship of student migration. We have presented the primary school students' migration model using descriptive modeling approach along with exploratory modeling. Our research, in the context of Software Engineering of Simulation & Modeling, and exploring the Complex Adaptive nature of school system, is two folds. Firstly, the cause-effect relationship of students' migration is being investigated using Cognitive Descriptive Agent-Based Modeling. Secondly, the formalization extent of Cognitive Agent-Based Computing framework is analyzed by performing its comparative analysis with exploratory modeling protocol 'Overview, Design, and Detail'.Comment: 117 pages, MS thesi

Persistent Inequality: The Chilean voucher system and its impacts on socio-economic segregation and quality of education.

In the last decades, the Chilean educational system is carrying on a process of increasing reforms, beginning with the instauration of a voucher system. Since the implementation of this scheme, however, researchers have pointed out the low academic efficacy and remarkable problem of equity that have developed from this intended reform. After the resulting social discontent, education became an undeniable priority in the national debate; consequently, a significant adjustment to the system was enacted in 2008. Existing scholarly work points to the need for expanding the study of school effectiveness to include a wider notion of context. Theoretically, part of the existing research isolates school performance from its wider sociocultural context, which can be defined as the policy environment and socioeconomic composition of the school. Both of these definitions of context have been avoided or reduced. Although the current effectiveness research emphasises school processes as a way to centralise the idea that school can make a difference, it nevertheless remains acritical with regard to specific policy ideological assumptions and their implications on the notion of effectiveness and the real power of the school to take part in social change. The purpose of this research is to broaden the study of school effectiveness within a long-lasting market oriented system. Using a mixed method research design, the data is collected and analysed through quantitative and qualitative approaches. Deploying multilevel analysis (HLM), the study analyses the presence and impact of the socioeconomic composition of school related to the effectiveness and equity of mathematics academic distribution in 4th grade students at a national level. Aiming to decode the impact of recent policy accountability, the qualitative approach interviews principals and teachers, thereby examining practices for effectiveness and the impact of accountability on the teachers' sense of professionalisation. Nvivo software is used to initiate a grounded theory explanation of the sensemaking of principals and teachers in three socioeconomic disadvantaged school cases. The study concludes that the level of socioeconomic composition of a school impacts more strongly than the family socioeconomic composition, constituting a double disadvantage for vulnerable students. Disadvantaged students attending disadvantaged schools are doubly affected by socioeconomic segregation. These contextual variables affect the effectiveness of schools, resulting in school comparisons that are unfair and misleading. Public schools appear to perform better than private schools when contextual variables are taken into account; however, the existing public policy of school classification does not include multilevel analysis or the type of contextual variables incorporated in this research. Another important conclusion of this study is that the policy of accountability erodes teacher professionalisation and encourages an authoritarian type of leadership. The practice of emphasising specific subjects and the idea of equating student learning with results on standardised evaluations affect the pedagogical practices of teachers, limiting their process to undertaking a series of routine actions for test preparation. Moreover, the urgency toward achieving good test results encourage schools to focus their practices on accomplishing these results, and not on the process of learning. A successful approach to effectiveness within the accountability system seems to be related to highly organised schools with a top-down type of leadership. Disadvantaged schools with a high sense of teacher professionalism and with democratic and flexible school organisation appear to be in opposition to the accountability policy. These findings have significant implications for the operation of a market oriented system. The market oriented system operating in Chile affects the distribution of student opportunities based on their socioeconomic background. The existing school segregation impacts both the operations inside the school and the purpose of the system that is intended to equalise and develop opportunities for students, thereby making school a social institution that can have a positive effect on the lives of pupils and staff. Persisting in a view of the market as a social regulator of effectiveness is not supported by empirical evidence; instead, this view shifts responsibility to the schools and encourages them to compete with each other as a logic of productivity, which affects how schools respond to students who are most in need of their care. Reducing the objectives of education to performativity leads to an impoverishing of the educational experience of students, and a diminishing sense of professionalism of staff. The notion of educational quality requires broadening to include a democratic experience of knowledge construction

UNPACKING HEALTH AID EFFECTIVENESS

This thesis provides an unpacked analysis of health aid effectiveness using Mozambique as a case-study. It comprises of three main papers of independent but related research. The first paper adds to the literature by employing a new model to study the impact of health aid on health outcomes. By taking into account the heterogeneity that exists in the amount of health aid received between Mozambican provinces, a multilevel model is specified. After recognizing significant variation of health outcomes between provinces, I found no statistical evidence that health aid was a cause of those variations. The second paper provides a systematic analysis of donors’ health aid disbursement decisions in-country. Using a game theoretic framework and grounded in qualitative evidence from Mozambique, this paper shows that donors have allocation tactics other than state-to-state aid to pursue their goals which are translated into opting for alternative channels of delivery. Simultaneously, this research acknowledges the non-passive role of the recipient country, i.e., donors’ decisions of how to allocate aid are mediated by the recipient’s response to their actions. This chapter suggests that recipient-donors’ strategic interactions are crucial to understand donors’ allocation behaviour and have direct consequences for aid effectiveness. The last paper explores empirically and theoretically aid coordination efforts of aid agencies. After providing an insight into the implementation of coordination in the health sector in Mozambique, this chapter explores why different agencies differ in their motivations to coordinate, based on the distinction between public and private good properties of coordination. Finally, using a collective action theory framework and aided by Schelling’s (1973) diagrams, this chapter illustrates why it is so hard to coordinate. My results show that individual incentives to coordinate are neither strong nor stable. Furthermore, the success of coordination depends, inter alia, on the number of agencies that perceive coordination as a public versus private good and the role and involvement of the lead donor and the recipient country

Proceedings of the ECCS 2005 satellite workshop: embracing complexity in design - Paris 17 November 2005

Embracing complexity in design is one of the critical issues and challenges of the 21st century. As the realization grows that design activities and artefacts display properties associated with complex adaptive systems, so grows the need to use complexity concepts and methods to understand these properties and inform the design of better artifacts. It is a great challenge because complexity science represents an epistemological and methodological swift that promises a holistic approach in the understanding and operational support of design. But design is also a major contributor in complexity research. Design science is concerned with problems that are fundamental in the sciences in general and complexity sciences in particular. For instance, design has been perceived and studied as a ubiquitous activity inherent in every human activity, as the art of generating hypotheses, as a type of experiment, or as a creative co-evolutionary process. Design science and its established approaches and practices can be a great source for advancement and innovation in complexity science. These proceedings are the result of a workshop organized as part of the activities of a UK government AHRB/EPSRC funded research cluster called Embracing Complexity in Design (www.complexityanddesign.net) and the European Conference in Complex Systems (complexsystems.lri.fr). Embracing complexity in design is one of the critical issues and challenges of the 21st century. As the realization grows that design activities and artefacts display properties associated with complex adaptive systems, so grows the need to use complexity concepts and methods to understand these properties and inform the design of better artifacts. It is a great challenge because complexity science represents an epistemological and methodological swift that promises a holistic approach in the understanding and operational support of design. But design is also a major contributor in complexity research. Design science is concerned with problems that are fundamental in the sciences in general and complexity sciences in particular. For instance, design has been perceived and studied as a ubiquitous activity inherent in every human activity, as the art of generating hypotheses, as a type of experiment, or as a creative co-evolutionary process. Design science and its established approaches and practices can be a great source for advancement and innovation in complexity science. These proceedings are the result of a workshop organized as part of the activities of a UK government AHRB/EPSRC funded research cluster called Embracing Complexity in Design (www.complexityanddesign.net) and the European Conference in Complex Systems (complexsystems.lri.fr)

Estimating Government Discretion in Fiscal Policy Making

Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) is a relatively new approach to describe macroeconomic differences across countries, classifying them into coordinated market economies (CMEs) and liberal market economies (LMEs). VoC already had a significant impact on the field but has been criticised for its lack of linkage to political systems. Recent studies focused on the similarities between CMEs and the Lijphartian consensus political systems, and LMEs and majoritarian political systems. One of the practical consequences of this classification is that governments in LMEs should enjoy more discretion over fiscal policy while governments in CMEs are more constrained in their decisions. In this paper we evaluate this proposition in two LME states -- Ireland and the UK -- where the latter is an example of a pure majoritarian state while the former bares several institutional characteristics of the consensus state (e.g. electoral system and coalition governments). We show that governments in both states enjoy relatively high degrees of discretion over fiscal policy, but that in Ireland policy outcomes are more well balanced in respect to interests represented by social partners. We thus provide empirical evidence that supports the classification proposed in the VoC approach. However, we also demonstrate that the context of decision-making has a crucial impact on the discretionary power of government, and that such context effects can change over time, even within the same system type.fiscal policy, computerised text analysis, EU Structural Funds, budgetary process