Stratification bias in low signal microarray studies

BACKGROUND: When analysing microarray and other small sample size biological datasets, care is needed to avoid various biases. We analyse a form of bias, stratification bias, that can substantially affect analyses using sample-reuse validation techniques and lead to inaccurate results. This bias is due to imperfect stratification of samples in the training and test sets and the dependency between these stratification errors, i.e. the variations in class proportions in the training and test sets are negatively correlated. RESULTS: We show that when estimating the performance of classifiers on low signal datasets (i.e. those which are difficult to classify), which are typical of many prognostic microarray studies, commonly used performance measures can suffer from a substantial negative bias. For error rate this bias is only severe in quite restricted situations, but can be much larger and more frequent when using ranking measures such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AUC). Substantial biases are shown in simulations and on the van 't Veer breast cancer dataset. The classification error rate can have large negative biases for balanced datasets, whereas the AUC shows substantial pessimistic biases even for imbalanced datasets. In simulation studies using 10-fold cross-validation, AUC values of less than 0.3 can be observed on random datasets rather than the expected 0.5. Further experiments on the van 't Veer breast cancer dataset show these biases exist in practice. CONCLUSION: Stratification bias can substantially affect several performance measures. In computing the AUC, the strategy of pooling the test samples from the various folds of cross-validation can lead to large biases; computing it as the average of per-fold estimates avoids this bias and is thus the recommended approach. As a more general solution applicable to other performance measures, we show that stratified repeated holdout and a modified version of k-fold cross-validation, balanced, stratified cross-validation and balanced leave-one-out cross-validation, avoids the bias. Therefore for model selection and evaluation of microarray and other small biological datasets, these methods should be used and unstratified versions avoided. In particular, the commonly used (unbalanced) leave-one-out cross-validation should not be used to estimate AUC for small datasets

An Ensemble Model of QSAR Tools for Regulatory Risk Assessment

Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa (κ): 0.63 and 0.62] for both the datasets. The ROC curves demonstrate the utility of the cut-off feature in the predictive ability of the ensemble model. This feature provides an additional control to the regulators in grading a chemical based on the severity of the toxic endpoint under study

An optimized energy potential can predict SH2 domain-peptide interactions

Peptide recognition modules (PRMs) are used throughout biology to mediate protein-protein interactions, and many PRMs are members of large protein domain families. Members of these families are often quite similar to each other, but each domain recognizes a distinct set of peptides, raising the question of how peptide recognition specificity is achieved using similar protein domains. The analysis of individual protein complex structures often gives answers that are not easily applicable to other members of the same PRM family. Bioinformatics-based approaches, one the other hand, may be difficult to interpret physically. Here we integrate structural information with a large, quantitative data set of SH2-peptide interactions to study the physical origin of domain-peptide specificity. We develop an energy model, inspired by protein folding, based on interactions between the amino acid positions in the domain and peptide. We use this model to successfully predict which SH2 domains and peptides interact and uncover the positions in each that are important for specificity. The energy model is general enough that it can be applied to other members of the SH2 family or to new peptides, and the cross-validation results suggest that these energy calculations will be useful for predicting binding interactions. It can also be adapted to study other PRM families, predict optimal peptides for a given SH2 domain, or study other biological interactions, e.g. protein-DNA interactions

Prediction of protein-protein interactions using one-class classification methods and integrating diverse data

This research addresses the problem of prediction of protein-protein interactions (PPI) when integrating diverse kinds of biological information. This task has been commonly viewed as a binary classification problem (whether any two proteins do or do not interact) and several different machine learning techniques have been employed to solve this task. However the nature of the data creates two major problems which can affect results. These are firstly imbalanced class problems due to the number of positive examples (pairs of proteins which really interact) being much smaller than the number of negative ones. Secondly the selection of negative examples can be based on some unreliable assumptions which could introduce some bias in the classification results. Here we propose the use of one-class classification (OCC) methods to deal with the task of prediction of PPI. OCC methods utilise examples of just one class to generate a predictive model which consequently is independent of the kind of negative examples selected; additionally these approaches are known to cope with imbalanced class problems. We have designed and carried out a performance evaluation study of several OCC methods for this task, and have found that the Parzen density estimation approach outperforms the rest. We also undertook a comparative performance evaluation between the Parzen OCC method and several conventional learning techniques, considering different scenarios, for example varying the number of negative examples used for training purposes. We found that the Parzen OCC method in general performs competitively with traditional approaches and in many situations outperforms them. Finally we evaluated the ability of the Parzen OCC approach to predict new potential PPI targets, and validated these results by searching for biological evidence in the literature

Earthquake Hazard Safety Assessment of Existing Buildings Using Optimized Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network

The latest earthquakes have proven that several existing buildings, particularly in developing countries, are not secured from damages of earthquake. A variety of statistical and machine-learning approaches have been proposed to identify vulnerable buildings for the prioritization of retrofitting. The present work aims to investigate earthquake susceptibility through the combination of six building performance variables that can be used to obtain an optimal prediction of the damage state of reinforced concrete buildings using artificial neural network (ANN). In this regard, a multi-layer perceptron network is trained and optimized using a database of 484 damaged buildings from the Düzce earthquake in Turkey. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the selected ANN approach to classify concrete structural damage that can be used as a preliminary assessment technique to identify vulnerable buildings in disaster risk-management programs

Personality in Computational Advertising: A Benchmark

In the last decade, new ways of shopping online have increased the possibility of buying products and services more easily and faster than ever. In this new context, personality is a key determinant in the decision making of the consumer when shopping. A person’s buying choices are influenced by psychological factors like impulsiveness; indeed some consumers may be more susceptible to making impulse purchases than others. Since affective metadata are more closely related to the user’s experience than generic parameters, accurate predictions reveal important aspects of user’s attitudes, social life, including attitude of others and social identity. This work proposes a highly innovative research that uses a personality perspective to determine the unique associations among the consumer’s buying tendency and advert recommendations. In fact, the lack of a publicly available benchmark for computational advertising do not allow both the exploration of this intriguing research direction and the evaluation of recent algorithms. We present the ADS Dataset, a publicly available benchmark consisting of 300 real advertisements (i.e., Rich Media Ads, Image Ads, Text Ads) rated by 120 unacquainted individuals, enriched with Big-Five users’ personality factors and 1,200 personal users’ pictures