Adaptation and learning over networks for nonlinear system modeling

In this chapter, we analyze nonlinear filtering problems in distributed environments, e.g., sensor networks or peer-to-peer protocols. In these scenarios, the agents in the environment receive measurements in a streaming fashion, and they are required to estimate a common (nonlinear) model by alternating local computations and communications with their neighbors. We focus on the important distinction between single-task problems, where the underlying model is common to all agents, and multitask problems, where each agent might converge to a different model due to, e.g., spatial dependencies or other factors. Currently, most of the literature on distributed learning in the nonlinear case has focused on the single-task case, which may be a strong limitation in real-world scenarios. After introducing the problem and reviewing the existing approaches, we describe a simple kernel-based algorithm tailored for the multitask case. We evaluate the proposal on a simulated benchmark task, and we conclude by detailing currently open problems and lines of research.Comment: To be published as a chapter in `Adaptive Learning Methods for Nonlinear System Modeling', Elsevier Publishing, Eds. D. Comminiello and J.C. Principe (2018

Fixed-Form Variational Posterior Approximation through Stochastic Linear Regression

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method can be used to approximate any posterior distribution, provided that it is given in closed form up to the proportionality constant. The approximation can be any distribution in the exponential family or any mixture of such distributions, which means that it can be made arbitrarily precise. Several examples illustrate the speed and accuracy of our approximation method in practice

Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast, distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary data and hospital time series data