The Present, Future and Imperfect of Financial Risk Management

Current research on financial risk management applications of econometrics centres on the accurate assessment of individual market and credit risks with relatively little theoretical or applied econometric research on other types of risk, aggregation risk, data incompleteness and optimal risk control. We argue that consideration of the model risk arising from crude aggregation rules and inadequate data could lead to a new class of reduced form Bayesian risk assessment models. Logically, these models should be set within a common factor framework that allows proper risk aggregation methods to be developed. We explain how such a framework could also provide the essential links between risk control, risk assessments and the optimal allocation of resources.Financial risk assessment; risk control, RAROC, economic capital; regulatory capital; optimal allocation of resources

Real Option Applications to Information Security

Real options present advantages over the standard discounting methods. In this paper we analyze them briefly and examine their potential applications on information security. The applications of real options on valuation of information assets, information security investment and capital budgeting provide considerable benefits. Finally portfolios of real options and other financial products can reduce information security risk.Real options, information security, valuation, information security investment, capital budgeting, portfolio theory, information security risk.

Coping in a Global Marketplace: Survival Strategies for a 75-Year-Old SEC

Notwithstanding cynicism to the contrary, data bears witness to the fact that government agencies come and go. There are multiple causes that give rise to their disappearance but among the most powerful is that conditions that first gave rise to the particular agency\u27s creation no longer exist so that the regulatory needs that once prevailed are no longer present or that there is a better governmental response than Congress\u27 earlier embraced when it initially created an independent regulatory agency to address the problems needing to be addressed. Certainly the more rigid the regulatory authority conferred on an agency has much to do with its ability to survive changes in the social, economic, commercial and scientific forces that shape its environment. One of the great illustrations of the vibrancy of the regulatory agency model, and particularly the notion of equipping such an agency with quasi-legislative authority through broad enabling statutes, is the Securities and Exchange Commission. But can an agency created and operating through most of its years in the internationally insulated environment of U.S. capital markets survive in a world that is light years away from the environment that existed a few years ago, not to mention 75 years ago when the SEC was created

Essays in Quantitative Risk Management for Financial Regulation of Operational Risk Models

An extensive amount of evolving guidance and rules are provided to banks by financial regulators. A particular set of instructions outline requirements to calculate and set aside loss-absorbing regulatory capital to ensure the solvency of a bank. Mathematical models are typically used by banks to quantify sufficient amounts of capital. In this thesis, we explore areas that advance our knowledge in regulatory risk management. In the first essay, we explore an aspect of operational risk loss modeling using scenario analysis. An actuarial modeling method is typically used to quantify a baseline capital value which is then layered with a judgemental component in order to account for and integrate what-if future potential losses into the model. We propose a method from digital signal processing using the convolution operator that views the problem of the blending of two signals. That is, a baseline loss distribution obtained from the modeling of frequency and severity of internal losses is combined with a probability distribution obtained from scenario responses to yield a final output that integrates both sets of information. In the second essay, we revisit scenario analysis and the potential impact of catastrophic events to that of the enterprise level of a bank. We generalize an algorithm to account for multiple level of intensities of events together with unique loss profiles depending on the business units effected. In the third essay, we investigate the problem of allocating aggregate capital across sub-portfolios in a fair manner when there are various forms of interdependencies. Relevant to areas of market, credit and operational risk, the multivariate shortfall allocation problem quantifies the optimal amount of capital needed to ensure that the expected loss under a convex loss penalty function remains bounded by a threshold. We first provide an application of the existing methodology to a subset of high frequency loss cells. Lastly, we provide an extension using copula models which allows for the modeling of joint fat-tailed events or asymmetries in the underlying process

Capital markets and e-fraud: policy note and concept paper for future study

The technological dependency of securities exchanges on internet-based (IP) platforms has dramatically increased the industry's exposure to reputation, market, and operational risks. In addition, the convergence of several innovations in the market are adding stress to these systems. These innovations affect everything from software to system design and architecture. These include the use of XML (extensible markup language) as the industry IP language, STP or straight through processing of data, pervasive or diffuse computing and grid computing, as well as the increased use of Internet and wireless. The fraud is not new, rather, the magnitude and speed by which fraud can be committed has grown exponentially due to the convergence of once private networks on-line. It is imperative that senior management of securities markets and brokerage houses be properly informed of the negative externalities associated with e-brokerage and the possible critical points of failure that exist in today's digitized financial sector as they grow into tomorrow's exchanges. The overwhelming issue regarding e-finance is to determine the true level of understanding that senior management has about on-line platforms, including the inherent risks and the depth of the need to use it wisely. Kellermann and McNevin attempt to highlight the various risks that have been magnified by the increasing digitalization of processes within the brokerage arena and explain the need for concerted research and analysis of these as well as the profound consequences that may entail without proper planning. An effective legal, regulatory, and enforcement framework is essential for creating the right incentive structure for market participants. The legal and regulatory framework should focus on the improvement of internal monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities, greater information sharing about these risks and vulnerabilities, education and training on the care and use of these technologies, and better reporting of risks and responses. Public/private partnerships and collaborations also are needed to create an electronic commerce (e-commerce) environment that is safe and sound.Environmental Economics&Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Financial Intermediation,ICT Policy and Strategies,Banks&Banking Reform