Making Good on LSTMs' Unfulfilled Promise

LSTMs promise much to financial time-series analysis, temporal and cross-sectional inference, but we find that they do not deliver in a real-world financial management task. We examine an alternative called Continual Learning (CL), a memory-augmented approach, which can provide transparent explanations, i.e. which memory did what and when. This work has implications for many financial applications including credit, time-varying fairness in decision making and more. We make three important new observations. Firstly, as well as being more explainable, time-series CL approaches outperform LSTMs as well as a simple sliding window learner using feed-forward neural networks (FFNN). Secondly, we show that CL based on a sliding window learner (FFNN) is more effective than CL based on a sequential learner (LSTM). Thirdly, we examine how real-world, time-series noise impacts several similarity approaches used in CL memory addressing. We provide these insights using an approach called Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) tested on a complex real-world problem, emerging market equities investment decision making. CLA provides a test-bed as it can be based on different types of time-series learners, allowing testing of LSTM and FFNN learners side by side. CLA is also used to test several distance approaches used in a memory recall-gate: Euclidean distance (ED), dynamic time warping (DTW), auto-encoders (AE) and a novel hybrid approach, warp-AE. We find that ED under-performs DTW and AE but warp-AE shows the best overall performance in a real-world financial task

Concept Drift Adaptation with Incremental–Decremental SVM

Data classification in streams where the underlying distribution changes over time is known to be difficult. This problem—known as concept drift detection—involves two aspects: (i) detecting the concept drift and (ii) adapting the classifier. Online training only considers the most recent samples; they form the so-called shifting window. Dynamic adaptation to concept drift is performed by varying the width of the window. Defining an online Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier able to cope with concept drift by dynamically changing the window size and avoiding retraining from scratch is currently an open problem. We introduce the Adaptive Incremental–Decremental SVM (AIDSVM), a model that adjusts the shifting window width using the Hoeffding statistical test. We evaluate AIDSVM performance on both synthetic and real-world drift datasets. Experiments show a significant accuracy improvement when encountering concept drift, compared with similar drift detection models defined in the literature. The AIDSVM is efficient, since it is not retrained from scratch after the shifting window slides

Adaptive Bernstein Change Detector for High-Dimensional Data Streams

Change detection is of fundamental importance when analyzing data streams. Detecting changes both quickly and accurately enables monitoring and prediction systems to react, e.g., by issuing an alarm or by updating a learning algorithm. However, detecting changes is challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In high-dimensional data, change detectors should not only be able to identify when changes happen, but also in which subspace they occur. Ideally, one should also quantify how severe they are. Our approach, ABCD, has these properties. ABCD learns an encoder-decoder model and monitors its accuracy over a window of adaptive size. ABCD derives a change score based on Bernstein's inequality to detect deviations in terms of accuracy, which indicate changes. Our experiments demonstrate that ABCD outperforms its best competitor by at least 8% and up to 23% in F1-score on average. It can also accurately estimate changes' subspace, together with a severity measure that correlates with the ground truth

Dynamics of Human-AI Delegation in Organizational Routines

Human-AI delegation occurs when a human delegates work to an autonomous AI-based system. We report on a simulation study to examine how human-AI delegation dynamically changes in an organizational routine as it is enacted over and over again. We build on findings from previous research and examine the interaction of various human and AI-related factors. We compute the resulting dynamics in terms of complexity representing the degree of uncertainty as to whether delegation takes place. We find that online and offline learning capabilities interact with human willingness in various ways which leads to different, even non-linear changes in the dynamics of human-AI delegation over time. Our study yields implications for research on human-AI delegation, routine dynamics and business process management. We point to a number of practical implications and avenues for future research

Concept drift from 1980 to 2020: a comprehensive bibliometric analysis with future research insight

In nonstationary environments, high-dimensional data streams have been generated unceasingly where the underlying distribution of the training and target data may change over time. These drifts are labeled as concept drift in the literature. Learning from evolving data streams demands adaptive or evolving approaches to handle concept drifts, which is a brand-new research affair. In this effort, a wide-ranging comparative analysis of concept drift is represented to highlight state-of-the-art approaches, embracing the last four decades, namely from 1980 to 2020. Considering the scope and discipline; the core collection of the Web of Science database is regarded as the basis of this study, and 1,564 publications related to concept drift are retrieved. As a result of the classification and feature analysis of valid literature data, the bibliometric indicators are revealed at the levels of countries/regions, institutions, and authors. The overall analyses, respecting the publications, citations, and cooperation of networks, are unveiled not only the highly authoritative publications but also the most prolific institutions, influential authors, dynamic networks, etc. Furthermore, deep analyses including text mining such as; the burst detection analysis, co-occurrence analysis, timeline view analysis, and bibliographic coupling analysis are conducted to disclose the current challenges and future research directions. This paper contributes as a remarkable reference for invaluable further research of concept drift, which enlightens the emerging/trend topics, and the possible research directions with several graphs, visualized by using the VOS viewer and Cite Space software

Data Optimization in Deep Learning: A Survey

Large-scale, high-quality data are considered an essential factor for the successful application of many deep learning techniques. Meanwhile, numerous real-world deep learning tasks still have to contend with the lack of sufficient amounts of high-quality data. Additionally, issues such as model robustness, fairness, and trustworthiness are also closely related to training data. Consequently, a huge number of studies in the existing literature have focused on the data aspect in deep learning tasks. Some typical data optimization techniques include data augmentation, logit perturbation, sample weighting, and data condensation. These techniques usually come from different deep learning divisions and their theoretical inspirations or heuristic motivations may seem unrelated to each other. This study aims to organize a wide range of existing data optimization methodologies for deep learning from the previous literature, and makes the effort to construct a comprehensive taxonomy for them. The constructed taxonomy considers the diversity of split dimensions, and deep sub-taxonomies are constructed for each dimension. On the basis of the taxonomy, connections among the extensive data optimization methods for deep learning are built in terms of four aspects. We probe into rendering several promising and interesting future directions. The constructed taxonomy and the revealed connections will enlighten the better understanding of existing methods and the design of novel data optimization techniques. Furthermore, our aspiration for this survey is to promote data optimization as an independent subdivision of deep learning. A curated, up-to-date list of resources related to data optimization in deep learning is available at \url{https://github.com/YaoRujing/Data-Optimization}

Process-Oriented Stream Classification Pipeline:A Literature Review

Featured Application: Nowadays, many applications and disciplines work on the basis of stream data. Common examples are the IoT sector (e.g., sensor data analysis), or video, image, and text analysis applications (e.g., in social media analytics or astronomy). With our work, we gather different approaches and terminology, and give a broad overview over the topic. Our main target groups are practitioners and newcomers to the field of data stream classification. Due to the rise of continuous data-generating applications, analyzing data streams has gained increasing attention over the past decades. A core research area in stream data is stream classification, which categorizes or detects data points within an evolving stream of observations. Areas of stream classification are diverse—ranging, e.g., from monitoring sensor data to analyzing a wide range of (social) media applications. Research in stream classification is related to developing methods that adapt to the changing and potentially volatile data stream. It focuses on individual aspects of the stream classification pipeline, e.g., designing suitable algorithm architectures, an efficient train and test procedure, or detecting so-called concept drifts. As a result of the many different research questions and strands, the field is challenging to grasp, especially for beginners. This survey explores, summarizes, and categorizes work within the domain of stream classification and identifies core research threads over the past few years. It is structured based on the stream classification process to facilitate coordination within this complex topic, including common application scenarios and benchmarking data sets. Thus, both newcomers to the field and experts who want to widen their scope can gain (additional) insight into this research area and find starting points and pointers to more in-depth literature on specific issues and research directions in the field.</p

LE3D: A lightweight ensemble framework of data drift detectors for resource-constrained devices

Data integrity becomes paramount as the number of Internet of Things (IoT) sensor deployments increases. Sensor data can be altered by benign causes or malicious actions. Mechanisms that detect drifts and irregularities can prevent disruptions and data bias in the state of an IoT application. This paper presents LE3D, an ensemble framework of data drift estimators capable of detecting abnormal sensor behaviours. Working collaboratively with surrounding IoT devices, the type of drift (natural/abnormal) can also be identified and reported to the end-user. The proposed framework is a lightweight and unsupervised implementation able to run on resource constrained IoT devices. Our framework is also generalisable, adapting to new sensor streams and environments with minimal online reconfiguration. We compare our method against state of-the-art ensemble data drift detection frameworks, evaluating both the real-world detection accuracy as well as the resource utilisation of the implementation. Experimenting with real-world data and emulated drifts, we show the effectiveness of our method, which achieves up to 97% of detection accuracy while requiring minimal resources to run