Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

SEED: efficient clustering of next-generation sequences.

MotivationSimilarity clustering of next-generation sequences (NGS) is an important computational problem to study the population sizes of DNA/RNA molecules and to reduce the redundancies in NGS data. Currently, most sequence clustering algorithms are limited by their speed and scalability, and thus cannot handle data with tens of millions of reads.ResultsHere, we introduce SEED-an efficient algorithm for clustering very large NGS sets. It joins sequences into clusters that can differ by up to three mismatches and three overhanging residues from their virtual center. It is based on a modified spaced seed method, called block spaced seeds. Its clustering component operates on the hash tables by first identifying virtual center sequences and then finding all their neighboring sequences that meet the similarity parameters. SEED can cluster 100 million short read sequences in <4 h with a linear time and memory performance. When using SEED as a preprocessing tool on genome/transcriptome assembly data, it was able to reduce the time and memory requirements of the Velvet/Oasis assembler for the datasets used in this study by 60-85% and 21-41%, respectively. In addition, the assemblies contained longer contigs than non-preprocessed data as indicated by 12-27% larger N50 values. Compared with other clustering tools, SEED showed the best performance in generating clusters of NGS data similar to true cluster results with a 2- to 10-fold better time performance. While most of SEED's utilities fall into the preprocessing area of NGS data, our tests also demonstrate its efficiency as stand-alone tool for discovering clusters of small RNA sequences in NGS data from unsequenced organisms.AvailabilityThe SEED software can be downloaded for free from this site: http://manuals.bioinformatics.ucr.edu/home/[email protected] informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online

Information visualization for DNA microarray data analysis: A critical review

Graphical representation may provide effective means of making sense of the complexity and sheer volume of data produced by DNA microarray experiments that monitor the expression patterns of thousands of genes simultaneously. The ability to use ldquoabstractrdquo graphical representation to draw attention to areas of interest, and more in-depth visualizations to answer focused questions, would enable biologists to move from a large amount of data to particular records they are interested in, and therefore, gain deeper insights in understanding the microarray experiment results. This paper starts by providing some background knowledge of microarray experiments, and then, explains how graphical representation can be applied in general to this problem domain, followed by exploring the role of visualization in gene expression data analysis. Having set the problem scene, the paper then examines various multivariate data visualization techniques that have been applied to microarray data analysis. These techniques are critically reviewed so that the strengths and weaknesses of each technique can be tabulated. Finally, several key problem areas as well as possible solutions to them are discussed as being a source for future work

Automatic Clustering with Single Optimal Solution

Determining optimal number of clusters in a dataset is a challenging task. Though some methods are available, there is no algorithm that produces unique clustering solution. The paper proposes an Automatic Merging for Single Optimal Solution (AMSOS) which aims to generate unique and nearly optimal clusters for the given datasets automatically. The AMSOS is iteratively merges the closest clusters automatically by validating with cluster validity measure to find single and nearly optimal clusters for the given data set. Experiments on both synthetic and real data have proved that the proposed algorithm finds single and nearly optimal clustering structure in terms of number of clusters, compactness and separation.Comment: 13 pages,4 Tables, 3 figure