An investigation into Mathematical Programming for Finite Horizon Decentralized POMDPs

International audienceDecentralized planning in uncertain environments is a complex task generally dealt with by using a decision-theoretic approach, mainly through the framework of Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (DEC-POMDPs). Although DEC-POMDPS are a general and powerful modeling tool, solving them is a task with an overwhelming complexity that can be doubly exponential, using either Dynamic Programming or Forward Search methods. In this paper, we study an alternate formulation of DEC-POMDPs relying on a sequence form representation of policies. From this formulation, we show how to derive Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problems that, once solved, give exact optimal solutions to the DEC-POMDPs. We show that these MILPs can be derived either by using some combinatorial characteristics of the optimal solutions of the DEC-POMDPs or by using concepts borrowed from game theory. Through an experimental validation on classical test problems from the DEC-POMDP literature, we compare our approach to existing algorithms. Results show that mathematical programming outperforms dynamic programming but is less efficient than forward search, except for some particular problems. The main contributions of this work are the use of mathematical programming for DEC-POMDPs and a better understanding of DEC-POMDPs and of their solutions. Besides, we argue that our alternate representation of DEC-POMDPs could be helpful for designing novel algorithms looking for approximate solutions to DEC-POMDPs

Stochastic Tools for Network Security: Anonymity Protocol Analysis and Network Intrusion Detection

With the rapid development of Internet and the sharp increase of network crime, network security has become very important and received a lot of attention. In this dissertation, we model security issues as stochastic systems. This allows us to find weaknesses in existing security systems and propose new solutions. Exploring the vulnerabilities of existing security tools can prevent cyber-attacks from taking advantages of the system weaknesses. We consider The Onion Router (Tor), which is one of the most popular anonymity systems in use today, and show how to detect a protocol tunnelled through Tor. A hidden Markov model (HMM) is used to represent the protocol. Hidden Markov models are statistical models of sequential data like network traffic, and are an effective tool for pattern analysis. New, flexible and adaptive security schemes are needed to cope with emerging security threats. We propose a hybrid network security scheme including intrusion detection systems (IDSs) and honeypots scattered throughout the network. This combines the advantages of two security technologies. A honeypot is an activity-based network security system, which could be the logical supplement of the passive detection policies used by IDSs. This integration forces us to balance security performance versus cost by scheduling device activities for the proposed system. By formulating the scheduling problem as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (DEC-POMDP), decisions are made in a distributed manner at each device without requiring centralized control. When using a HMM, it is important to ensure that it accurately represents both the data used to train the model and the underlying process. Current methods assume that observations used to construct a HMM completely represent the underlying process. It is often the case that the training data size is not large enough to adequately capture all statistical dependencies in the system. It is therefore important to know the statistical significance level that the constructed model represents the underlying process, not only the training set. We present a method to determine if the observation data and constructed model fully express the underlying process with a given level of statistical significance. We apply this approach to detecting the existence of protocols tunnelled through Tor. While HMMs are a powerful tool for representing patterns allowing for uncertainties, they cannot be used for system control. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a useful choice for controlling stochastic systems. As a combination of two Markov models, POMDPs combine the strength of HMM (capturing dynamics that depend on unobserved states) and that of Markov decision process (MDP) (taking the decision aspect into account). Decision making under uncertainty is used in many parts of business and science. We use here for security tools. We propose three approximation methods for discrete-time infinite-horizon POMDPs. One of the main contributions of our work is high-quality approximation solution for finite-space POMDPs with the average cost criterion, and their extension to DEC-POMDPs. The solution of the first algorithm is built out of the observable portion when the underlying MDP operates optimally. The other two methods presented here can be classified as the policy-based approximation schemes, in which we formulate the POMDP planning as a quadratically constrained linear program (QCLP), which defines an optimal controller of a desired size. This representation allows a wide range of powerful nonlinear programming (NLP) algorithms to be used to solve POMDPs. Simulation results for a set of benchmark problems illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We show how this tool could be used to design a network security framework

Optimally solving Dec-POMDPs as Continuous-State MDPs: Theory and Algorithms

Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) provide a general model for decision-making under uncertainty in cooperative decentralized settings, but are difficult to solve optimally (NEXP-Complete). As a new way of solving these problems, we introduce the idea of transforming a Dec-POMDP into a continuous-state deterministic MDP with a piecewise-linear and convex value function. This approach makes use of the fact that planning can be accomplished in a centralized offline manner, while execution can still be distributed. This new Dec-POMDP formulation, which we call an occupancy MDP, allows powerful POMDP and continuous-state MDP methods to be used for the first time. When the curse of dimensionality becomes too prohibitive, we refine this basic approach and present ways to combine heuristic search and compact representations that exploit the structure present in multi-agent domains, without losing the ability to eventually converge to an optimal solution. In particular, we introduce feature-based heuristic search that relies on feature-based compact representations, point-based updates and efficient action selection. A theoretical analysis demonstrates that our feature-based heuristic search algorithms terminate in finite time with an optimal solution. We include an extensive empirical analysis using well known benchmarks, thereby demonstrating our approach provides significant scalability improvements compared to the state of the art.Les processus de décision markoviens partiellement observables décentralisés (Dec-POMDP) fournissent un modèle général pour la prise de décision dans l'incertain dans des cadres coopératifs décentralisés. En guise de nouvelle approche de résolution de ces problèmes, nous introduisons l'idée de transformer un Dec-POMDP en un MDP déterministe à espace d'états continu dont la fonction de valeur est linéaire par morceaux et convexe. Cette approche exploite le fait que la planification peut être effectuée d'une manière centralisée hors ligne, alors que l'exécution peut toujours être distribuée. Cette nouvelle formulation des Dec-POMDP, que nous appelons un occupancy MDP, permet pour la première fois d'employer de puissantes méthodes de résolution de POMDP et MDP à états continus. La malédiction de la dimensionalité devenant prohibitive, nous raffinons cette approche basique et présentons des façons de combiner la recherche heuristique et des représentations compactes qui exploitent la structure présente dans les domaines multi-agents, sans perdre la capacité de converger à terme vers une solution optimale. En particulier, nous introduisons une recherche heuristique qui repose sur des représentations compactes fondées sur des features, sur des mises-à-jour à base de points, et une sélection d'action efficace. Une analyse théorique démontre que nos algorithmes de recherche heuristique fondés sur des features se terminent en temps fini avec une solution optimale. Nous incluons une analyse empirique extensive utilisant des bancs d'essai bien connus, démontrant ainsi que notre approche améliore significativement le passage à l'échelle en comparaison de l'état de l'art