Fluctuation effects in metapopulation models: percolation and pandemic threshold

Metapopulation models provide the theoretical framework for describing disease spread between different populations connected by a network. In particular, these models are at the basis of most simulations of pandemic spread. They are usually studied at the mean-field level by neglecting fluctuations. Here we include fluctuations in the models by adopting fully stochastic descriptions of the corresponding processes. This level of description allows to address analytically, in the SIS and SIR cases, problems such as the existence and the calculation of an effective threshold for the spread of a disease at a global level. We show that the possibility of the spread at the global level is described in terms of (bond) percolation on the network. This mapping enables us to give an estimate (lower bound) for the pandemic threshold in the SIR case for all values of the model parameters and for all possible networks.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, final versio

Fractional diffusion emulates a human mobility network during a simulated disease outbreak

From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between contact nodes. In some cases, transport can be parameterized with gravity-type models or approximated by a diffusive random walk. As a alternative, we have isolated intranational commercial air traffic as a case study for the utility of non-diffusive, heavy-tailed transport models. We implemented new stochastic simulations of a prototypical influenza-like infection, focusing on the dense, highly-connected United States air travel network. We show that mobility on this network can be described mainly by a power law, in agreement with previous studies. Remarkably, we find that the global evolution of an outbreak on this network is accurately reproduced by a two-parameter space-fractional diffusion equation, such that those parameters are determined by the air travel network.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figure

Recoverable prevalence in growing scale-free networks and the effective immunization

We study the persistent recoverable prevalence and the extinction of computer viruses via e-mails on a growing scale-free network with new users, which structure is estimated form real data. The typical phenomenon is simulated in a realistic model with the probabilistic execution and detection of viruses. Moreover, the conditions of extinction by random and targeted immunizations for hubs are derived through bifurcation analysis for simpler models by using a mean-field approximation without the connectivity correlations. We can qualitatively understand the mechanisms of the spread in linearly growing scale-free networks.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, 1 table. Update version after helpful referee comment

Epidemic modelling by ripple-spreading network and genetic algorithm

Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. This paper, inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, proposes a novel ripple-spreading network model for the study of infectious disease transmission. The new epidemic model naturally has good potential for capturing many spatial and temporal features observed in the outbreak of plagues. In particular, using a stochastic ripple-spreading process simulates the effect of random contacts and movements of individuals on the probability of infection well, which is usually a challenging issue in epidemic modeling. Some ripple-spreading related parameters such as threshold and amplifying factor of nodes are ideal to describe the importance of individuals’ physical fitness and immunity. The new model is rich in parameters to incorporate many real factors such as public health service and policies, and it is highly flexible to modifications. A genetic algorithm is used to tune the parameters of the model by referring to historic data of an epidemic. The well-tuned model can then be used for analyzing and forecasting purposes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation results

Analytic Comparison of Some Epidemic Models with Vaccination

AbstractIn this paper, we discuss the elementary properties of some simple SI, SR, SIR and SEIR epidemic models whose parameterizing functions (such as per-capita death rate, disease transmission, removal rate etc.) might be eventually time-varying but nonnecessarily time-integrable. Vaccination rules based of feedback, measuring the numbers of some of the partial populations defining the disease progress, are also discussed

A Minimal Model for Multiple Epidemics and Immunity Spreading

Pathogens and parasites are ubiquitous in the living world, being limited only by availability of suitable hosts. The ability to transmit a particular disease depends on competing infections as well as on the status of host immunity. Multiple diseases compete for the same resource and their fate is coupled to each other. Such couplings have many facets, for example cross-immunization between related influenza strains, mutual inhibition by killing the host, or possible even a mutual catalytic effect if host immunity is impaired. We here introduce a minimal model for an unlimited number of unrelated pathogens whose interaction is simplified to simple mutual exclusion. The model incorporates an ongoing development of host immunity to past diseases, while leaving the system open for emergence of new diseases. The model exhibits a rich dynamical behavior with interacting infection waves, leaving broad trails of immunization in the host population. This obtained immunization pattern depends only on the system size and on the mutation rate that initiates new diseases

Dissemination of Health Information within Social Networks

In this paper, we investigate, how information about a common food born health hazard, known as Campylobacter, spreads once it was delivered to a random sample of individuals in France. The central question addressed here is how individual characteristics and the various aspects of social network influence the spread of information. A key claim of our paper is that information diffusion processes occur in a patterned network of social ties of heterogeneous actors. Our percolation models show that the characteristics of the recipients of the information matter as much if not more than the characteristics of the sender of the information in deciding whether the information will be transmitted through a particular tie. We also found that at least for this particular advisory, it is not the perceived need of the recipients for the information that matters but their general interest in the topic

Modeling, analysis and defense strategies against Internet attacks.

Third, we have analyzed the tradeoff between delay caused by filtering of worms at routers, and the delay due to worms' excessive amount of network traffic. We have used the optimal control problem, to determine the appropriate tradeoffs between these two delays for a given rate of a worm spreading. Using our technique we can minimize the overall network delay by finding the number of routers that should perform filtering and the time at which they should start the filtering process.Many early Internet protocols were designed without a fundamentally secure infrastructure and hence vulnerable to attacks such as denial of service (DoS) attacks and worms. DoS attacks attempt to consume the resources of a remote host or network, thereby denying or degrading service to legitimate users. Network forensics is an emerging area wherein the source or the cause of the attacker is determined using IDS tools. The problem of finding the source(s) of attack(s) is called the "trace back problem". Lately, Internet worms have become a major problem for the security of computer networks, causing considerable amount of resources and time to be spent recovering from the disruption of systems. In addition to breaking down victims, these worms create large amounts of unnecessary network data traffic that results in network congestion, thereby affecting the entire network.In this dissertation, first we solve the trace back problem more efficiently in terms of the number of routers needed to complete the track back. We provide an efficient algorithm to decompose a network into connected components and construct a terminal network. We show that for a terminal network with n routers, the trace back can be completed in O(log n) steps.Second, we apply two classical epidemic SIS and SIR models to study the spread of Internet Worm. The analytical models that we provide are useful in determining the rate of spread and time required to infect a majority of the nodes in the network. Our simulation results on large Internet like topologies show that in a fairly small amount of time, 80% of the network nodes is infected