An Approach to Derive User Preferences from Multiple-Choice Questions in Online Reviews

Digital trace data from social media provide large amounts of information on individuals, their behavior, and their interactions with each other. Social media data have been employed to study personality, social networks, and other phenomena. However, employing social media data for research causes some issues: for example, data have to be transformed to fit analytical methods, and data may have been shaped by the social media information systems through which they were produced. In turn, the ways in which these issues are accounted for significantly affects research results. This study contributes to the methods used to analyze social media data by proposing a method to compute frequency measures on users\u27 preferences (formally comparable to survey items) from answers to multiple-choice questions in online reviews that are repeatedly given by users over time. I evaluate the method by computing travel motivations from online travel reviews and comparing my results to findings on travel motivations obtained through classic surveys. Since both results are very similar, I conclude that my approach is appropriate and should be tested for other domains and datasets. I discuss the limitations of the method and the evaluation and these issues can be alleviated in further research

Customer purchase behavior prediction in E-commerce: a conceptual framework and research agenda

Digital retailers are experiencing an increasing number of transactions coming from their consumers online, a consequence of the convenience in buying goods via E-commerce platforms. Such interactions compose complex behavioral patterns which can be analyzed through predictive analytics to enable businesses to understand consumer needs. In this abundance of big data and possible tools to analyze them, a systematic review of the literature is missing. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature review of recent research dealing with customer purchase prediction in the E-commerce context. The main contributions are a novel analytical framework and a research agenda in the field. The framework reveals three main tasks in this review, namely, the prediction of customer intents, buying sessions, and purchase decisions. Those are followed by their employed predictive methodologies and are analyzed from three perspectives. Finally, the research agenda provides major existing issues for further research in the field of purchase behavior prediction online

Learning User Preferences to Incentivize Exploration in the Sharing Economy

We study platforms in the sharing economy and discuss the need for incentivizing users to explore options that otherwise would not be chosen. For instance, rental platforms such as Airbnb typically rely on customer reviews to provide users with relevant information about different options. Yet, often a large fraction of options does not have any reviews available. Such options are frequently neglected as viable choices, and in turn are unlikely to be evaluated, creating a vicious cycle. Platforms can engage users to deviate from their preferred choice by offering monetary incentives for choosing a different option instead. To efficiently learn the optimal incentives to offer, we consider structural information in user preferences and introduce a novel algorithm - Coordinated Online Learning (CoOL) - for learning with structural information modeled as convex constraints. We provide formal guarantees on the performance of our algorithm and test the viability of our approach in a user study with data of apartments on Airbnb. Our findings suggest that our approach is well-suited to learn appropriate incentives and increase exploration on the investigated platform.Comment: Longer version of AAAI'18 paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1702.0284

Methods for Ordinal Peer Grading

MOOCs have the potential to revolutionize higher education with their wide outreach and accessibility, but they require instructors to come up with scalable alternates to traditional student evaluation. Peer grading -- having students assess each other -- is a promising approach to tackling the problem of evaluation at scale, since the number of "graders" naturally scales with the number of students. However, students are not trained in grading, which means that one cannot expect the same level of grading skills as in traditional settings. Drawing on broad evidence that ordinal feedback is easier to provide and more reliable than cardinal feedback, it is therefore desirable to allow peer graders to make ordinal statements (e.g. "project X is better than project Y") and not require them to make cardinal statements (e.g. "project X is a B-"). Thus, in this paper we study the problem of automatically inferring student grades from ordinal peer feedback, as opposed to existing methods that require cardinal peer feedback. We formulate the ordinal peer grading problem as a type of rank aggregation problem, and explore several probabilistic models under which to estimate student grades and grader reliability. We study the applicability of these methods using peer grading data collected from a real class -- with instructor and TA grades as a baseline -- and demonstrate the efficacy of ordinal feedback techniques in comparison to existing cardinal peer grading methods. Finally, we compare these peer-grading techniques to traditional evaluation techniques.Comment: Submitted to KDD 201

Linking Research and Policy: Assessing a Framework for Organic Agricultural Support in Ireland

This paper links social science research and agricultural policy through an analysis of support for organic agriculture and food. Globally, sales of organic food have experienced 20% annual increases for the past two decades, and represent the fastest growing segment of the grocery market. Although consumer interest has increased, farmers are not keeping up with demand. This is partly due to a lack of political support provided to farmers in their transition from conventional to organic production. Support policies vary by country and in some nations, such as the US, vary by state/province. There have been few attempts to document the types of support currently in place. This research draws on an existing Framework tool to investigate regionally specific and relevant policy support available to organic farmers in Ireland. This exploratory study develops a case study of Ireland within the framework of ten key categories of organic agricultural support: leadership, policy, research, technical support, financial support, marketing and promotion, education and information, consumer issues, inter-agency activities, and future developments. Data from the Irish Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (Teagasc), and other governmental and semi-governmental agencies provide the basis for an assessment of support in each category. Assessments are based on the number of activities, availability of information to farmers, and attention from governmental personnel for each of the ten categories. This policy framework is a valuable tool for farmers, researchers, state agencies, and citizen groups seeking to document existing types of organic agricultural support and discover policy areas which deserve more attention

Item Recommendation with Evolving User Preferences and Experience

Current recommender systems exploit user and item similarities by collaborative filtering. Some advanced methods also consider the temporal evolution of item ratings as a global background process. However, all prior methods disregard the individual evolution of a user's experience level and how this is expressed in the user's writing in a review community. In this paper, we model the joint evolution of user experience, interest in specific item facets, writing style, and rating behavior. This way we can generate individual recommendations that take into account the user's maturity level (e.g., recommending art movies rather than blockbusters for a cinematography expert). As only item ratings and review texts are observables, we capture the user's experience and interests in a latent model learned from her reviews, vocabulary and writing style. We develop a generative HMM-LDA model to trace user evolution, where the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) traces her latent experience progressing over time -- with solely user reviews and ratings as observables over time. The facets of a user's interest are drawn from a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model derived from her reviews, as a function of her (again latent) experience level. In experiments with five real-world datasets, we show that our model improves the rating prediction over state-of-the-art baselines, by a substantial margin. We also show, in a use-case study, that our model performs well in the assessment of user experience levels

THREE ESSAYS ON THE APPLICATION OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS IN ECONOMICS

Over the last decades, economics as a field has experienced a profound transformation from theoretical work toward an emphasis on empirical research (Hamermesh, 2013). One common constraint of empirical studies is the access to data, the quality of the data and the time span it covers. In general, applied studies rely on surveys, administrative or private sector data. These data are limited and rarely have universal or near universal population coverage. The growth of the internet has made available a vast amount of digital information. These big digital data are generated through social networks, sensors, and online platforms. These data account for an increasing part of the economic activity yet for economists, the availability of these big data also raises many new challenges related to the techniques needed to collect, manage, and derive knowledge from them. The data are in general unstructured, complex, voluminous and the traditional software used for economic research are not always effective in dealing with these types of data. Machine learning is a branch of computer science that uses statistics to deal with big data. The objective of this dissertation is to reconcile machine learning and economics. It uses threes case studies to demonstrate how data freely available online can be harvested and used in economics. The dissertation uses web scraping to collect large volume of unstructured data online. It uses machine learning methods to derive information from the unstructured data and show how this information can be used to answer economic questions or address econometric issues. The first essay shows how machine learning can be used to derive sentiments from reviews and using the sentiments as a measure for quality it examines an old economic theory: Price competition in oligopolistic markets. The essay confirms the economic theory that agents compete for price. It also confirms that the quality measure derived from sentiment analysis of the reviews is a valid proxy for quality and influences price. The second essay uses a random forest algorithm to show that reviews can be harnessed to predict consumers’ preferences. The third essay shows how properties description can be used to address an old but still actual problem in hedonic pricing models: the Omitted Variable Bias. Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) it shows that pricing errors in hedonic models can be reduced by including the description of the properties in the models

Leveraging Market Research Techniques in IS: A Review and Framework of Conjoint Analysis Studies in the IS Discipline

With cloud and mobile computing, information systems (IS) have evolved towards mass-market services. While IS success requires user involvement, the IS discipline lacks methods that allow organizations to integrate the “voice of the customer” into mass-market services with individual and dispersed users. Conjoint analysis (CA), from marketing research, provides insights into user preferences and measures user trade-offs for multiple product features simultaneously. While CA has gained popularity in the IS domain, existing studies have mostly been one-time efforts, which has resulted in little knowledge accumulation about CA’s applications in IS. We argue that CA could have a significant impact on IS research (and practice) if this method was further developed and adopted for IS application areas. From reviewing 70 CA studies published between 1999 and 2019 in the IS discipline, we found that CA supports in initially conceptualizing, iteratively designing, and evaluating IS and their business models. We critically assess the methodological choices along the CA procedure to provide recommendations and guidance on “how” to leverage CA techniques in future IS research. We then synthesize our findings into a framework for conjoint analysis studies in IS that outlines “where” researchers and practitioners can apply CA along the IS lifecycle