Spatial and Temporal Variations of Snow Cover in the Karoon River Basin, Iran, 2003–2015

abstract: The Karoon River Basin, with an area of about 67,000 km2, is located in the southern part of Iran and has a complex mountainous terrain. No comprehensive study has been done on the spatial and temporal variations of snow cover in this region to date. In this paper, daily snow data of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS Terra (MOD10A1) and MODIS Aqua (MYD10A1) were examined from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2015, to analyze snow cover variations. Due to difficulties created by cloud cover effects, it was crucial to reduce cloud contamination in the daily time series. Therefore, two common cloud removal methods were applied on the daily data. The results suggested that in winter nearly 43% of the Basin’s area experienced a negative trend, while only 1.4% of the Basin had a positive trend for snow-covered days (SCD); trends in fall and spring were less evident in the data. Using a digital elevation model of the Basin, the trends of SCD in 100 m elevation intervals were calculated, indicating a significant positive trend in SCD during the fall season above 3500 m

Multi-physics ensemble snow modelling in the western Himalaya

Combining multiple data sources with multi-physics simulation frameworks offers new potential to extend snow model inter-comparison efforts to the Himalaya. As such, this study evaluates the sensitivity of simulated regional snow cover and runoff dynamics to different snowpack process representations. The evaluation is based on a spatially distributed version of the Factorial Snowpack Model (FSM) set up for the Astore catchment in the upper Indus basin. The FSM multi-physics model was driven by climate fields from the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) dynamical downscaling product. Ensemble performance was evaluated primarily using MODIS remote sensing of snow-covered area, albedo and land surface temperature. In line with previous snow model inter-comparisons, no single FSM configuration performs best in all of the years simulated. However, the results demonstrate that performance variation in this case is at least partly related to inaccuracies in the sequencing of inter-annual variation in HAR climate inputs, not just FSM model limitations. Ensemble spread is dominated by interactions between parameterisations of albedo, snowpack hydrology and atmospheric stability effects on turbulent heat fluxes. The resulting ensemble structure is similar in different years, which leads to systematic divergence in ablation and mass balance at high elevations. While ensemble spread and errors are notably lower when viewed as anomalies, FSM configurations show important differences in their absolute sensitivity to climate variation. Comparison with observations suggests that a subset of the ensemble should be retained for climate change projections, namely those members including prognostic albedo and liquid water retention, refreezing and drainage processes

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction based on remote sensing and cloud-resolving modeling over the Central Himalayas

The Central Himalayan region experiences pronounced orographic precipitation related to the South Asian summer monsoon, typically occurring from June to September. Atmospheric aerosols can influence regional and global climate through aerosol-radiation (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The study of the aerosol-precipitation relationship over the Central Himalayan region during the summer monsoon season is important due to extreme pollution over the upwind Indo-Gangetic Plains, enhanced moisture supply through monsoonal flow, and steep terrain of the Himalayas modulating the orographic forcing. This dissertation aims to study the impact of atmospheric aerosols, from natural and anthropogenic sources, in modulating the monsoonal precipitation, cloud processes, and freezing isotherm over the central Himalayas. The long-term (2002 – 2017) satellite-retrieved and reanalysis datasets showed regardless of the meteorological forcing, compared to relatively cleaner days, polluted days with higher aerosol optical depth is characterized by the invigorated clouds and enhanced precipitation over the southern slopes and foothills of the Himalayas. The mean freezing isotherm increased by 136.2 meters in a polluted environment, which can be crucial and significantly impact the hydroclimate of the Himalayas. Due to the limitations of satellite-retrieved observational data, these results underlined the need for state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in a cloud-resolving scale to better represent and study the impact of the aerosols from different sources through radiation and microphysics pathways over the complex terrain of the Central Himalayas. A cloud-resolving WRF-Chem simulation is performed to assess the impact of anthropogenic and remotely transported dust aerosols on the convective processes and elevation-dependent precipitation. Long-range transported dust aerosols significantly impacted cloud microphysical properties and enhanced the precipitation by 9.3% over the southern slopes of the Nepal Himalayas. The mid-elevation of the Central Himalayas, generally between 1000 and 3000 meters, acted as the region below and above which the diurnal variation and precipitation of various intensities (light, moderate, and heavy) responded differently for ARI, ACI, and the combined effect of aerosols. Due to the ARI effect of aerosols, the light precipitation is suppressed by 17% over the Central Himalayas. The ACI effect dominated and resulted in enhanced heavy precipitation by 12% below 2000 m ASL, which can potentially increase the risk for extreme events (floods and landslides). In contrast, above 2000 m ASL, the suppression of precipitation due to aerosols can be critical for the regional supply of water resources. The overview of the study suggests that the natural and anthropogenic aerosols significantly modulate the convective processes, monsoonal precipitation, and freezing isotherm over the Central Himalayan region, which could pose significant consequences to the changing Himalayan hydroclimate

Quantifying the Congruence between Air and Land Surface Temperatures for Various Climatic and Elevation Zones of Western Himalaya

The authors would like to acknowledge National Snow and Ice Data Centre, USA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing freely available MODIS satellite products and Global Historical Climatology Network station data, respectively. The authors are also grateful to India Meteorology Department (IMD), India, Bhakhra Beas Management Board (BBMB), India and Hendrik Wulf, University of Zurich, Switzerland for providing the station data. A.B. acknowledges the Swedish Research Council for supporting his research in Himalaya. M.S. acknowledges Director, Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences and Birbal Sahni Research Associate fellowship.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system

In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River system (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. First, we validate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD10A1) and Aqua (MYD10A1) against the Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (TM/ETM+) data set, and then improve them for clouds by applying a validated non-spectral cloud removal technique. The improved snow product has been analysed on a seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (upper Indus basin (UIB), Astore, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Seasonal average snow cover decreases during winter and autumn, and increases during spring and summer, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitudes/altitudes show higher variability than basins at lower latitudes/middle altitudes. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature greater snow cover. The mean end-of-summer regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range from 3000 to 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a descending end-of-summer regional SLA zone for most of the studied basins, which is significant for the Shyok and Kabul basins, thus indicating a change in their water resources. Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climatic data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period within the UIB. Moreover, our analysis shows a significant correlation between winter season snow cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of spring season snow cover and spring season precipitation explains well the inter-annual variability of the summer season discharge from most of the basins. These findings indicate some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast in the region, suggesting snow cover as a possible predictor

Uncertainties in the Hydrological Modelling Using Remote Sensing Data over the Himalayan Region

Himalayas the “roof of the world” are the source of water supply for major South Asian Rivers and fulfill the demand of almost one sixth of world’s humanity. Hydrological modeling poses a big challenge for Himalayan River Basins due to complex topography, climatology and lack of quality input data. In this study, hydrological uncertainties arising due to remotely sensed inputs, input resolution and model structure has been highlighted for a Himalayan Gandak River Basin. Firstly, spatial input DEM (Digital Elevation Model) from two sources SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) and ASTER (Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) with resolutions 30m, 90m and 30m respectively has been evaluated for their delineation accuracy. The result reveals that SRTM 90m has best performance in terms of least area delineation error (13239.28 km2) and least stream network delineation error. The daily satellite precipitation estimates TRMM 3B42 V7 (Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission) and CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing Technique) are evaluated for their feasibly over these terrains. Evaluation based on various scores related to visual verification method, Yes/no dichotomous, and continuous variable verification method reveal that TRMM 3B42 V7 has better scores than CMORPH. The effect of DEM resolution on the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model outputs has been demonstrated using sixteen DEM grid sizes (40m-1000m). The analysis reveals that sediment and flow are greatly affected by the DEM resolutions (for DEMs>300m). The amount of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) are found affected via slope and volume of flow for DEM grid size ≥150m. The T-test results are significant for SWAT outputs for grid size >500m at a yearly time step. The SWAT model is accessed for uncertainty during various hydrological processes modeling with different setups/structure. The results reflects that the use of elevation band modeling routine (with six to eight elevation bands) improves the streamflow statistics and water budgets from upstream to downstream gauging sites. Also, the SWAT model represents a consistent pattern of spatiotemporal snow cover dynamics when compared with MODIS data. At the end, the uncertainty in the stream flow simulation for TRMM 3B42 V7 for various rainfall intensity has been accessed with the statistics Percentage Bias (PBIAS) and RSR (RMSE-observations Standard Deviation Ratio). The results found that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/day) to heavy rainfall intensities (35.5 to 124.4 mm/day). The finding of the present work can be useful for TRMM based studies for water resources management over the similar parts of the world