Stochastic modelling of the effects of interdependencies between critical infrastructure

An approach to Quantitative Interdependency Analysis, in the context of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures, is presented in this paper. A Discrete state–space, Continuous–time, Stochastic Process models the operation of critical infrastructure, taking interdependencies into account. Of primary interest are the implications of both model detail (that is, level of model abstraction) and model parameterisation for the study of dependencies. Both of these factors are observed to affect the distribution of cascade–sizes within and across infrastructure

Infrastructure Interdependencies: Opportunities from Complexity

Infrastructure networks, such as those for energy, transportation, and telecommunications, perform key functions for society. Although such systems have largely been developed and managed in isolation, infrastructure now functions as a system of systems, exhibiting complex interdependencies that can leave critical functions vulnerable to cascade failure. Consequently, research efforts and management strategies have focused on risks and negative aspects of complexity. This paper explores how interdependencies can be seen positively, representing opportunities to increase organizational resilience and sustainability. A typology is presented for classifying positive interdependencies, drawing on fundamental principles in ecology and validated using case studies. Understanding opportunities that arise from interdependency will enable better understanding and management of infrastructure complexity, which in turn will allow the use of such complexity to the advantage of society. Integrative thinking is necessary not only for mitigating risk but also for identifying innovations to make systems and organizations more sustainable and resilient

Infrastructure interdependencies : opportunities from complexity

Infrastructure networks, such as those for energy, transportation, and telecommunications, perform key functions for society. Although such systems have largely been developed and managed in isolation, infrastructure now functions as a system of systems, exhibiting complex interdependencies that can leave critical functions vulnerable to cascade failure. Consequently, research efforts and management strategies have focused on risks and negative aspects of complexity. This paper explores how interdependencies can be seen positively, representing opportunities to increase organizational resilience and sustainability. A typology is presented for classifying positive interdependencies, drawing on fundamental principles in ecology and validated using case studies. Understanding opportunities that arise from interdependency will enable better understanding and management of infrastructure complexity, which in turn will allow the use of such complexity to the advantage of society. Integrative thinking is necessary not only for mitigating risk but also for identifying innovations to make systems and organizations more sustainable and resilient

Output Dynamics of the G7 Countries - Stochastic Trends and Cyclical Movements

Using a time series framework, the paper studies the interac tions of the annual real per capita GDP data of the G7 countries. We find evidence of six common nonstationary processes behind the international output dynamics. In addition, there is evidence for the existence of a common business cycle among these coun t ries. The trend and cycle components of each output series are obtained with a procedure that accounts for the presence of both the common nonstationary and cyclical factors. It is found that the relative variability and the correlation of the trend and cycle components are not similar across the G7 countries.

How to herd cats: economic policy coordination in the Euro zone in tough times

How to herd cats: economic policy coordination in the Euro zone in tough times

Electricity Internal Market in the European Union: What to do next?

Like in the US, the EU “internal electricity market” remains unfinished and its construction can stall, fracturing into “national blocks” separated by permanent “border effects”. This is exactly what this paper seeks to avoid in the expected life of the current European Commission (2005-2009). It identifies the critical factors: national and EU market designs, industry structure and competition policy, deeper regional cooperation between TSOs and Regulators. It suggests 8 priority actions and 12 secondary improvements to sustain the dynamics of the construction of an EU set of open r egional markets with limited “border effects”, and explains the rationale for these recommendations

Socially-integrated resilience in building-level water networks using smart microgrid+net

Environmental change and natural events can impact on multiple dimensions of human life; economic, social, political, physical (built) and natural (ecosystems) environments. Water distribution networks cover both the built and natural realms and are as such inherently vulnerable to accidental or deliberate physical, natural, chemical, or biological threats. An example of such threats include flooding. The damage to water networks from flooding at the building level can include disrupted supply, pipe damage, sink and sewer overflows, fittings and appliance malfunctions etc. as well as the consequential socio-economic loss and distress. It has also been highlighted that the cost of damage caused by disasters including flooding can be correlated to the warning-time given before it occurs. Therefore, contiguous and continuous preparedness is essential to sustain disaster resilience. This paper presents an early stage review to: 1. Understand the challenges and opportunities posed by disaster risks to critical infrastructure at the building level. 2. Examine the role and importance of early warnings within the smart systems context to promote anticipatory preparedness and reduce physical, economic, environmental and social vulnerability 3. Review the opportunities provided by smart water microgrid/net to deliver such an early warning system and 4. Define the basis for a socially-integrated framework for resilience in building water networks based on smart water micro grids and micronets. The objective is to establish the theoretical approach for smart system integration for risk mitigation in water networks at the building level. Also, to explore the importance and scope integration of other social-political dimensions within such framework and associated solutions. The findings will inform further studies to address the gaps in understanding the disaster risks in micro water infrastructure e.g. flooding, and; to develop strategies and systems to strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response and anticipatory action for such risks

The productive role of public infrastructure: A critical review of recent literature

The publication of two empirical articles by Aschauer in 1989 brought a renewed interest in the study of the productive role of public infrastructure. Since then, many empirical studies as well as a few surveys have been published not only in regional science journals but also in main stream economics journals. The interest in the subject and the controversy are both high, which constitute two major ingredients for our critical review of recent literature. Our purpose in this paper is to evaluate the recent contributions identifying approaches followed, results obtained, major shortcomings of the empirical evidence produced, areas of strong controversy and promising methodologies for future research.