Probabilistic Graphical Model Representation in Phylogenetics

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (1) reproducibility of an analysis, (2) model development and (3) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and non-specialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis-Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Power Flow Modelling of Dynamic Systems - Introduction to Modern Teaching Tools

As tools for dynamic system modelling both conventional methods such as transfer function or state space representation and modern power flow based methods are available. The latter methods do not depend on energy domain, are able to preserve physical system structures, visualize power conversion or coupling or split, identify power losses or storage, run on conventional software and emphasize the relevance of energy as basic principle of known physical domains. Nevertheless common control structures as well as analysis and design tools may still be applied. Furthermore the generalization of power flow methods as pseudo-power flow provides with a universal tool for any dynamic modelling. The phenomenon of power flow constitutes an up to date education methodology. Thus the paper summarizes fundamentals of selected power flow oriented modelling methods, presents a Bond Graph block library for teaching power oriented modelling as compact menu-driven freeware, introduces selected examples and discusses special features.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, 4 table

Visual analytics for supply network management: system design and evaluation

We propose a visual analytic system to augment and enhance decision-making processes of supply chain managers. Several design requirements drive the development of our integrated architecture and lead to three primary capabilities of our system prototype. First, a visual analytic system must integrate various relevant views and perspectives that highlight different structural aspects of a supply network. Second, the system must deliver required information on-demand and update the visual representation via user-initiated interactions. Third, the system must provide both descriptive and predictive analytic functions for managers to gain contingency intelligence. Based on these capabilities we implement an interactive web-based visual analytic system. Our system enables managers to interactively apply visual encodings based on different node and edge attributes to facilitate mental map matching between abstract attributes and visual elements. Grounded in cognitive fit theory, we demonstrate that an interactive visual system that dynamically adjusts visual representations to the decision environment can significantly enhance decision-making processes in a supply network setting. We conduct multi-stage evaluation sessions with prototypical users that collectively confirm the value of our system. Our results indicate a positive reaction to our system. We conclude with implications and future research opportunities.The authors would like to thank the participants of the 2015 Businessvis Workshop at IEEE VIS, Prof. Benoit Montreuil, and Dr. Driss Hakimi for their valuable feedback on an earlier version of the software; Prof. Manpreet Hora for assisting with and Georgia Tech graduate students for participating in the evaluation sessions; and the two anonymous reviewers for their detailed comments and suggestions. The study was in part supported by the Tennenbaum Institute at Georgia Tech Award # K9305. (K9305 - Tennenbaum Institute at Georgia Tech Award)Accepted manuscrip

High-Dimensional Dependency Structure Learning for Physical Processes

In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a variety of natural phenomena, including geoscience data capturing atmospheric and hydrological phenomena. Classical structure learning approaches such as the PC algorithm and variants are challenging to apply due to their high computational and sample requirements. Modern approaches, often based on sparse regression and variants, do come with finite sample guarantees, but are usually highly sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters, e.g., parameter $\lambda$ for sparsity inducing constraint or regularization. In this paper, we present ACLIME-ADMM, an efficient two-step algorithm for adaptive structure learning, which estimates an edge specific parameter $\lambda_{ij}$ in the first step, and uses these parameters to learn the structure in the second step. Both steps of our algorithm use (inexact) ADMM to solve suitable linear programs, and all iterations can be done in closed form in an efficient block parallel manner. We compare ACLIME-ADMM with baselines on both synthetic data simulated by partial differential equations (PDEs) that model advection-diffusion processes, and real data (50 years) of daily global geopotential heights to study information flow in the atmosphere. ACLIME-ADMM is shown to be efficient, stable, and competitive, usually better than the baselines especially on difficult problems. On real data, ACLIME-ADMM recovers the underlying structure of global atmospheric circulation, including switches in wind directions at the equator and tropics entirely from the data.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, International Conference on Data Mining 201

Probabilistic Intra-Retinal Layer Segmentation in 3-D OCT Images Using Global Shape Regularization

With the introduction of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT), resulting in a significant increase in acquisition speed, the fast and accurate segmentation of 3-D OCT scans has become evermore important. This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach, that models the appearance of retinal layers as well as the global shape variations of layer boundaries. Given an OCT scan, the full posterior distribution over segmentations is approximately inferred using a variational method enabling efficient probabilistic inference in terms of computationally tractable model components: Segmenting a full 3-D volume takes around a minute. Accurate segmentations demonstrate the benefit of using global shape regularization: We segmented 35 fovea-centered 3-D volumes with an average unsigned error of 2.46 $\pm$ 0.22 {\mu}m as well as 80 normal and 66 glaucomatous 2-D circular scans with errors of 2.92 $\pm$ 0.53 {\mu}m and 4.09 $\pm$ 0.98 {\mu}m respectively. Furthermore, we utilized the inferred posterior distribution to rate the quality of the segmentation, point out potentially erroneous regions and discriminate normal from pathological scans. No pre- or postprocessing was required and we used the same set of parameters for all data sets, underlining the robustness and out-of-the-box nature of our approach.Comment: Accepted for publication in Medical Image Analysis (MIA), Elsevie