Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Proceedings of the 2004 ONR Decision-Support Workshop Series: Interoperability

In August of 1998 the Collaborative Agent Design Research Center (CADRC) of the California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly), approached Dr. Phillip Abraham of the Office of Naval Research (ONR) with the proposal for an annual workshop focusing on emerging concepts in decision-support systems for military applications. The proposal was considered timely by the ONR Logistics Program Office for at least two reasons. First, rapid advances in information systems technology over the past decade had produced distributed collaborative computer-assistance capabilities with profound potential for providing meaningful support to military decision makers. Indeed, some systems based on these new capabilities such as the Integrated Marine Multi-Agent Command and Control System (IMMACCS) and the Integrated Computerized Deployment System (ICODES) had already reached the field-testing and final product stages, respectively. Second, over the past two decades the US Navy and Marine Corps had been increasingly challenged by missions demanding the rapid deployment of forces into hostile or devastate dterritories with minimum or non-existent indigenous support capabilities. Under these conditions Marine Corps forces had to rely mostly, if not entirely, on sea-based support and sustainment operations. Particularly today, operational strategies such as Operational Maneuver From The Sea (OMFTS) and Sea To Objective Maneuver (STOM) are very much in need of intelligent, near real-time and adaptive decision-support tools to assist military commanders and their staff under conditions of rapid change and overwhelming data loads. In the light of these developments the Logistics Program Office of ONR considered it timely to provide an annual forum for the interchange of ideas, needs and concepts that would address the decision-support requirements and opportunities in combined Navy and Marine Corps sea-based warfare and humanitarian relief operations. The first ONR Workshop was held April 20-22, 1999 at the Embassy Suites Hotel in San Luis Obispo, California. It focused on advances in technology with particular emphasis on an emerging family of powerful computer-based tools, and concluded that the most able members of this family of tools appear to be computer-based agents that are capable of communicating within a virtual environment of the real world. From 2001 onward the venue of the Workshop moved from the West Coast to Washington, and in 2003 the sponsorship was taken over by ONR’s Littoral Combat/Power Projection (FNC) Program Office (Program Manager: Mr. Barry Blumenthal). Themes and keynote speakers of past Workshops have included: 1999: ‘Collaborative Decision Making Tools’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); LtGen Paul Van Riper (USMC Ret.);Radm Leland Kollmorgen (USN Ret.); and, Dr. Gary Klein (KleinAssociates) 2000: ‘The Human-Computer Partnership in Decision-Support’ Dr. Ronald DeMarco (Associate Technical Director, ONR); Radm CharlesMunns; Col Robert Schmidle; and, Col Ray Cole (USMC Ret.) 2001: ‘Continuing the Revolution in Military Affairs’ Mr. Andrew Marshall (Director, Office of Net Assessment, OSD); and,Radm Jay M. Cohen (Chief of Naval Research, ONR) 2002: ‘Transformation ... ’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); and, Steve Cooper (CIO, Office ofHomeland Security) 2003: ‘Developing the New Infostructure’ Richard P. Lee (Assistant Deputy Under Secretary, OSD); and, MichaelO’Neil (Boeing) 2004: ‘Interoperability’ MajGen Bradley M. Lott (USMC), Deputy Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Donald Diggs, Director, C2 Policy, OASD (NII

An Operational Utility Assessment: Measuring the Effectiveness of the Joint Concept Technology Demonstration (JCTD), Joint Forces Protection Advance Security System (JFPASS)

Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program)Planning modern military operations requires an accurate intelligence assessment of potential threats, combined with a detailed assessment of the physical theater of operations. This information can then be combined with equipment and manpower resources to set up a logistically supportable operation that mitigates as much of the enemy threat as possible. Given such a daunting challenge, military planners often turn to intelligent software agents to support their efforts. The success of the mission often hinges on the accuracy of these plans and the integrity of the security umbrella provided. The purpose of this project is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the Joint Forces Protection Advanced Security System (JFPASS) Joint Concept Technology Demonstration (JCTD) to better meet force-protection needs. It will also address the adaptability of this technology to an ever-changing enemy threat by the use of intelligent software. This project will collect and analyze data pertaining to the research, development, testing, and effectiveness of the JFPASS and develop an operational effectiveness model to quantify overall system performance.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Semantic correlation of behavior for the interoperability of heterogeneous simulations

A desirable goal of military simulation training is to provide large scale or joint exercises to train personnel at higher echelons. To help meet this goal, many of the lower echelon combatants must consist of computer generated forces with some of these echelons composed of units from different simulations. The object of the research described is to correlate the behaviors of entities in different simulations so that they can interoperate with one another to support simulation training. Specific source behaviors can be translated to a form in terms of general behaviors which can then be correlated to any desired specific destination simulation behavior without prior knowledge of the pairing. The correlation, however, does not result in 100% effectiveness because most simulations have different semantics and were designed for different training needs. An ontology of general behaviors and behavior parameters, a database of source behaviors written in terms of these general behaviors with a database of destination behaviors. This comparison is based upon the similarity of sub-behaviors and the behavior parameters. Source behaviors/parameters may be deemed similar based upon their sub-behaviors or sub-parameters and their relationship (more specific or more general) to destination behaviors/parameters. As an additional constraint for correlation, a conversion path from all required destination parameters to a source parameter must be found in order for the behavior to be correlated and thus executed. The length of this conversion path often determines the similarity for behavior parameters, both source and destination. This research has shown, through a set of experiments, that heuristic metrics, in conjunction with a corresponding behavior and parameter ontology, are sufficient for the correlation of heterogeneous simulation behavior. These metrics successfully correlated known pairings provided by experts and provided reasonable correlations for behaviors that have no corresponding destination behavior. For different simulations, these metrics serve as a foundation for more complex methods of behavior correlation

EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF A MACHINE TEAMMATE

Artificial intelligence has been in use for decades. It is already deployed in manned formations and will continue to be fielded to military units over the next several years. Current strategies and operational concepts call for increased use of artificial-intelligence capabilities across the defense enterprise—from senior leaders to the tactical edge. Unfortunately, artificial intelligence and the warriors that they support will not be compatible "out of the box." Simply bolting an artificial intelligence into teams of humans will not ensure success. The Department of Defense must pay careful attention to how it is deploying artificial intelligences alongside humans. This is especially true in teams where the structure of the team and the behaviors of its members can make or break performance. Because humans and machines work differently, teams should be designed to leverage the strengths of each partner. Team designs should account for the inherent strengths of the machine partner and use them to shore up human weaknesses. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by submitting novel conceptual models that capture the desired team behaviors of humans and machines when operating in human-machine teaming constructs. These models may inform the design of human-machine teams in ways that improve team performance and agility.NPS_Cruser, Monterey, CA 93943Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine CorpsMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

EVALUATING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE METHODS FOR USE IN KILL CHAIN FUNCTIONS

Current naval operations require sailors to make time-critical and high-stakes decisions based on uncertain situational knowledge in dynamic operational environments. Recent tragic events have resulted in unnecessary casualties, and they represent the decision complexity involved in naval operations and specifically highlight challenges within the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Assess). Kill chain decisions involving the use of weapon systems are a particularly stressing category within the OODA loop—with unexpected threats that are difficult to identify with certainty, shortened decision reaction times, and lethal consequences. An effective kill chain requires the proper setup and employment of shipboard sensors; the identification and classification of unknown contacts; the analysis of contact intentions based on kinematics and intelligence; an awareness of the environment; and decision analysis and resource selection. This project explored the use of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve naval kill chain decisions. The team studied naval kill chain functions and developed specific evaluation criteria for each function for determining the efficacy of specific AI methods. The team identified and studied AI methods and applied the evaluation criteria to map specific AI methods to specific kill chain functions.Civilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCaptain, United States Marine CorpsCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Modeling the Decision Process of a Joint Task Force Commander

The U.S. military uses modeling and simulation as a tool to help meet its warfighting needs. A key element within military simulations is the ability to accurately represent human behavior. This is especially true in a simulation\u27s ability to emulate realistic military decisions. However, current decision models fail to provide the variability and flexibility that human decision makers exhibit. Further, most decision models are focused on tactical decisions and ignore the decision process of senior military commanders at the operational level of warfare. In an effort to develop a better decision model that would mimic the decision process of a senior military commander, this research sought to identify an underlying cognitive process and computational techniques that could adequately implement it. Recognition-Primed Decision making (RPD) was identified as one such model that characterized this process. Multiagent system simulation was identified as a computational system that could mimic the cognitive process identified by RPD. The result was a model of RPD called RPDAgent. Using an operational military decision scenario, decisions produced by RPDAgent were compared against decisions made by military officers. It was found that RPDAgent produced decisions that were equivalent to its human counterparts. RPDAgent\u27s decisions were not optimum decisions, but decisions that reflected the variability inherent in those made by humans in an operational military environment

The problematisation of autonomous weapon systems - a case study of the US Department of Defense

Robotics systems play an increasingly important role in armed conflicts and there are already weapons in service that replace a human being at the point of engagement. The United States (US) is the first country to have adopted a policy on autonomous weapon systems (AWS) in the Directive 3000.09. The US policy on AWS is however poorly understood in the academic and policy circles. This thesis addresses the question of how the US Department of Defense (DoD) problematises the concept of AWS. By applying a Bacchi’s poststructuralist approach to policy analysis, the thesis asks how the US DoD constructs the ‘problem’ of AWS, what assumptions underlie this representation of the ‘problem’, how has it come about, what effects it produces, what is left out of problem representation, and how could it be questioned. The US DoD problematisation of AWS does not only clarifies the Department’s approach, but also it explores the role of human involvement over the use of AWS. The US policy states that AWS shall be used by ‘appropriate levels of human judgment’. This term is, however, open to different interpretations, and some argue that it prohibits a lethal use of AWS, while others disagree. The thesis focuses not only on content of the US concept of human judgment, but primarily on how this concept relates to the wider US military understanding of ‘control.’ In that, it unpacks the concept of human judgment and distinguishes it from the concept of human control. I argue that both concepts are important in the debate on AWS as they represent alternative policy approaches to the use of such weapons. By making these concepts more explicit, my thesis contributes to the specific and emerging academic debate about the role of human involvement over the use of AWS

Task Load and Automation Use in an Uncertain Environment

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects that user task load level has on the relationship between an individual\u27s trust in and subsequent use of a system\u27s automation. Automation research has demonstrated a positive correlation between an individual\u27s trust in and subsequent use of the automation. Military decision-makers trust and use information system automation to make many tactical judgments and decisions. In situations of information uncertainty (information warfare environments), decision-makers must remain aware of information reliability issues and temperate their use of system automation if necessary. An individual\u27s task load may have an effect on his use of a system\u27s automation in environments of information uncertainty. It was hypothesized that user task load will have a moderating effect on the positive relationship between system automation trust and use of system automation. Specifically, in situations of information uncertainty (low trust), high task load will have a negative effect on the relationship. To test this hypothesis, an experiment in a simulated command and control micro-world was conducted in which system automation trust and individual task load were manipulated. The findings from the experiment support the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use found in previous research and suggest that task load does have a negative effect on the positive relationship between automation trust and automation use

Naval Aviation Squadron Risk Analysis Predictive Bayesian Network Modeling Using Maintenance Climate Assessment Survey Results

Associated risks in flying have resulted in injury or death to aircrew and passengers, and damage or destruction of the aircraft and its surroundings. Although the Naval Aviation\u27s flight mishap rate declined over the past 60 years, the proportion of human error causal factors has stayed relatively constant at about 80%. Efforts to reduce human errors have focused attention on understanding the aircrew and maintenance actions occurring in complex systems. One such tool has been the Naval Aviation squadrons\u27 regular participation in survey questionnaires deigned to measure respondent ratings related to personal judgments or perceptions of organizational climate for meeting the extent to which a particular squadron achieved the High Reliability Organization (HRO) criteria of achieving safe and reliable operations and maintenance practices while working in hazardous environments. Specifically, the Maintenance Climate Assessment Survey (MCAS) is completed by squadron maintainers to enable leadership to assess their unit\u27s aggregated responses against those from other squadrons. Bayesian Network Modeling and Simulation provides a potential methodology to represent the relationships of MCAS results and mishap occurrences that can be used to derive and calculate probabilities of incurring a future mishap. Model development and simulation analysis was conducted to research a causal relationship through quantitative analysis of conditional probabilities based upon observed evidence of previously occurred mishaps. This application would enable Navy and Marine Corps aviation squadron leadership to identify organizational safety risks, apply focused proactive measures to mitigate related hazards characterized by the MCAS results, and reduce organizational susceptibility to future aircraft mishaps