In Search of a Theory of Debt Management

A growing literature integrates debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in its market value offsets changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when governments only issue non-contingent bonds. Because bond returns are highly correlated it is known this approach implies asset positions which are large multiples of GDP. We show, analytically and numerically, across a wide range of model specifications (habits, productivity shocks, capital accumulation, persistent shocks, etc) that this is only one of the weaknesses of this approach. We find evidence of large fluctuations in positions, enormous changes in portfolios for minor changes in maturities issued and no presumption it is always optimal to issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We show these extreme, volatile and unstable features are undesirable from a practical perspective for two reasons. Firstly the fragility of the optimal portfolio to small changes in model specification means it is frequently better for fear of model misspecification to follow a balanced budget rather than issue the optimal debt structure. Secondly we show for even miniscule levels of transaction costs governments would prefer a balanced budget rather than the large and volatile positions the complete market approach recommends. We conclude it is difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks using the complete markets approach. Due to the yield curve's limited variability maturities are a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. As a result the recommendations of this approach conflict with a number of features we believe are integral to bond market incompleteness e.g. allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, robustness etc. Our belief is that market imperfections need to be explicitly introduced into the model and incorporated into the portfolio problem. Failure to do so means that the complete market approach applied in an incomplete market setting can be seriously misleading.Complete markets, debt management, government debt, maturity structure, yield curve

Does Competition Reduce Costs? Assessing the Impact of Regulatory Restructuring on U.S. Electric Generation Efficiency

This paper explores the empirical effects of competition on technical efficiency in the context of electricity industry restructuring. Restructuring programs adopted by many U.S. states made utilities residual claimants to cost savings and increased their exposure to competitive markets. We estimate the impact of these changes on annual generating plant-level input demand for non-fuel operating expenses, the number of employees and fuel use. We find that municipally-owned plants, whose owners were for the most part unaffected by restructuring, experienced the smallest efficiency gains over the past decade. Investor-owned utility plants in states that restructured their wholesale electricity markets had the largest reductions in nonfuel operating expenses and employment, while investor-owned plants in nonrestructuring states fell between these extremes. The analysis also highlights the substantive importance of treating the simultaneity of input and output decisions, which we do through an instrumental variables approach

Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations

Modeling short-term interest rates as following regime-switching processes has become increasingly popular. Theoretically, regime-switching models are able to capture rational expectations of infrequently occurring discrete events. Technically, they allow for potential time-varying stationarity. After discussing both aspects with reference to the recent literature, this paper provides estimations of various univariate regime-switching specifications for the German three-month money market rate and bivariate specifications additionally including the term spread. However, the main contribution is a multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for state-dependence. Particularly, the informational content of the term spread for future short rate changes can be exploited optimally within a multivariate regime-switching framework

Web Appendix to: How Does Charitable Giving Respond to Incentives and Income? New Estimates from Panel Data

This is the web appendix to "How Does Charitable Giving Respond to Incentives and Income? New Estimates from Panel Data," National Tax Journal, Vol. 62, no. 2, 2009, pp. 191-217.charitable donations, incentive effects of taxation

Sparse change-point HAR Models for realized variance

Change-point time series specifications constitute flexible models that capture unknown structural changes by allowing for switches in the model parameters. Nevertheless most models suffer from an over-parametrization issue since typically only one latent state variable drives the switches in all parameters. This implies that all parameters have to change when a break happens. To gauge whether and where there are structural breaks in realized variance, we introduce the sparse change-point HAR model. The approach controls for model parsimony by limiting the number of parameters which evolve from one regime to another. Sparsity is achieved thanks to employing a nonstandard shrinkage prior distribution. We derive a Gibbs sampler for inferring the parameters of this process. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent performance of the sampler. Relying on this new framework, we study the stability of the HAR model using realized variance series of several major international indices between January 2000 and August 2015

The Effect of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates in Europe

This paper analyzes a panel of 18 European countries spanning from 1950 to 2003 to examine the extent to which the legal reforms leading to "easier divorce" that took place during the second half of the 20th century have contributed to the increase in divorce rates across Europe. We use a quasi-experimental set-up and exploit the different timing of the reforms in divorce laws across countries. We account for unobserved country-specific factors by introducing country fixed effects, and we include country-specific trends to control for time-varying factors at the country level that may be correlated with divorce rates and divorce laws, such as changing social norms or slow moving demographic trends. We find that the different reforms that "made divorce easier" were followed by significant increases in divorce rates. The effect of no-fault legislation was strong and permanent, while unilateral reforms only had a temporary effect on divorce rates. Overall, we estimate that the legal reforms account for about 20 percent of the increase in divorce rates in Europe between 1960 and 2002

Double Secret Protection: Bridging Federal and State Law To Protect Privacy Rights for Telemental and Mobile Health Users

Mental health care in the United States is plagued by stigma, cost, and access issues that prevent many people from seeking and continuing treatment for mental health conditions. Emergent technology, however, may offer a solution. Through telemental health, patients can connect with providers remotely—avoiding stigmatizing situations that can arise from traditional healthcare delivery, receiving more affordable care, and reaching providers across geographic boundaries. And with mobile health technology, people can use smart phone applications both to self-monitor their mental health and to communicate with their doctors. But people do not want to take advantage of telemental and mobile health unless their privacy is protected. After evaluating the applicability of current health information privacy law to these new forms of treatment, this Note proposes changes to the federal regime to protect privacy rights for telemental and mobile health users