Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

The topic of the paper is computer testing of (probabilistic) conditional independence (CI) implications by an algebraic method of structural imsets. The basic idea is to transform (sets of) CI statements into certain integral vectors and to verify by a computer the corresponding algebraic relation between the vectors, called the independence implication. We interpret the previous methods for computer testing of this implication from the point of view of polyhedral geometry. However, the main contribution of the paper is a new method, based on linear programming (LP). The new method overcomes the limitation of former methods to the number of involved variables. We recall/describe the theoretical basis for all four methods involved in our computational experiments, whose aim was to compare the efficiency of the algorithms. The experiments show that the LP method is clearly the fastest one. As an example of possible application of such algorithms we show that testing inclusion of Bayesian network structures or whether a CI statement is encoded in an acyclic directed graph can be done by the algebraic method

Strategic Behavior is Bliss: Iterative Voting Improves Social Welfare

Recent work in iterative voting has defined the additive dynamic price of anarchy (ADPoA) as the difference in social welfare between the truthful and worst-case equilibrium profiles resulting from repeated strategic manipulations. While iterative plurality has been shown to only return alternatives with at most one less initial votes than the truthful winner, it is less understood how agents' welfare changes in equilibrium. To this end, we differentiate agents' utility from their manipulation mechanism and determine iterative plurality's ADPoA in the worst- and average-cases. We first prove that the worst-case ADPoA is linear in the number of agents. To overcome this negative result, we study the average-case ADPoA and prove that equilibrium winners have a constant order welfare advantage over the truthful winner in expectation. Our positive results illustrate the prospect for social welfare to increase due to strategic manipulation.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, in NeurIPS 202

Scanner Invariant Representations for Diffusion MRI Harmonization

Purpose: In the present work we describe the correction of diffusion-weighted MRI for site and scanner biases using a novel method based on invariant representation. Theory and Methods: Pooled imaging data from multiple sources are subject to variation between the sources. Correcting for these biases has become very important as imaging studies increase in size and multi-site cases become more common. We propose learning an intermediate representation invariant to site/protocol variables, a technique adapted from information theory-based algorithmic fairness; by leveraging the data processing inequality, such a representation can then be used to create an image reconstruction that is uninformative of its original source, yet still faithful to underlying structures. To implement this, we use a deep learning method based on variational auto-encoders (VAE) to construct scanner invariant encodings of the imaging data. Results: To evaluate our method, we use training data from the 2018 MICCAI Computational Diffusion MRI (CDMRI) Challenge Harmonization dataset. Our proposed method shows improvements on independent test data relative to a recently published baseline method on each subtask, mapping data from three different scanning contexts to and from one separate target scanning context. Conclusion: As imaging studies continue to grow, the use of pooled multi-site imaging will similarly increase. Invariant representation presents a strong candidate for the harmonization of these data

Optimized Realization of Bayesian Networks in Reduced Normal Form using Latent Variable Model

Bayesian networks in their Factor Graph Reduced Normal Form (FGrn) are a powerful paradigm for implementing inference graphs. Unfortunately, the computational and memory costs of these networks may be considerable, even for relatively small networks, and this is one of the main reasons why these structures have often been underused in practice. In this work, through a detailed algorithmic and structural analysis, various solutions for cost reduction are proposed. An online version of the classic batch learning algorithm is also analyzed, showing very similar results (in an unsupervised context); which is essential even if multilevel structures are to be built. The solutions proposed, together with the possible online learning algorithm, are included in a C++ library that is quite efficient, especially if compared to the direct use of the well-known sum-product and Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithms. The results are discussed with particular reference to a Latent Variable Model (LVM) structure.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figure

Providing a foundation for interpretable autonomous agents through elicitation and modeling of criminal investigation pathways

Criminal investigations are guided by repetitive and time-consuming information retrieval tasks, often with high risk and high consequence. If Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can automate lines of inquiry, it could reduce the burden on analysts and allow them to focus their efforts on analysis. However, there is a critical need for algorithmic transparency to address ethical concerns. In this paper, we use data gathered from Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) interviews of criminal intelligence analysts and perform a novel analysis method to elicit question networks. We show how these networks form an event tree, where events are consolidated by capturing analyst intentions. The event tree is simplified with a Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) that provides a foundation for transparent autonomous investigations

Consistent Range Approximation for Fair Predictive Modeling

This paper proposes a novel framework for certifying the fairness of predictive models trained on biased data. It draws from query answering for incomplete and inconsistent databases to formulate the problem of consistent range approximation (CRA) of fairness queries for a predictive model on a target population. The framework employs background knowledge of the data collection process and biased data, working with or without limited statistics about the target population, to compute a range of answers for fairness queries. Using CRA, the framework builds predictive models that are certifiably fair on the target population, regardless of the availability of external data during training. The framework's efficacy is demonstrated through evaluations on real data, showing substantial improvement over existing state-of-the-art methods

Gene Expression and its Discontents: Developmental disorders as dysfunctions of epigenetic cognition

Systems biology presently suffers the same mereological and sufficiency fallacies that haunt neural network models of high order cognition. Shifting perspective from the massively parallel space of gene matrix interactions to the grammar/syntax of the time series of expressed phenotypes using a cognitive paradigm permits import of techniques from statistical physics via the homology between information source uncertainty and free energy density. This produces a broad spectrum of possible statistical models of development and its pathologies in which epigenetic regulation and the effects of embedding environment are analogous to a tunable enzyme catalyst. A cognitive paradigm naturally incorporates memory, leading directly to models of epigenetic inheritance, as affected by environmental exposures, in the largest sense. Understanding gene expression, development, and their dysfunctions will require data analysis tools considerably more sophisticated than the present crop of simplistic models abducted from neural network studies or stochastic chemical reaction theory