Analysis and Forecast of Railway Freight Volume based on Prophet-Deep AR Model

The research on railway freight volume forecast is of great significance to the allocation of railway freight transport resources, the formulation of transport plans and the organization of railway freight transport. This study, by fully mining the railway freight ticket data information, put forward the precise forecast model of railway freight volume under different types of freight. Firstly, the railway freight ticket data are cleaned, regulated and integrated, and the time series of the daily number of railway freight trains are constructed, get the trend, periodicity and holiday data of railway traffic data, and set the parameters of Chinese holidays and rest days according to the demand characteristics of different categories. Secondly, the forecasting result of the Prophet is taken as a cooperative parameter. DeepAR is used to forecast, and a combined model of the Prophet-DeepAR is constructed. Finally, the combined model was validated with Shanghai Railway Bureau data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 for the food and tobacco category, and with Prophet-DeepAR, LSTM, Wavelet, BILSTM, and Prophet-LSTM, prophet-wavelet and Prophet-Bilstm are used to compare the prediction results. The results show that the Prophet-DeepAR model can extract the multi-dimensional periodicity of freight traffic and mine the trend information of freight traffic, and get the prediction result with high precision. It has better accuracy than other models

Reliability Improvement On Feasibility Study For Selection Of Infrastructure Projects Using Data Mining And Machine Learning

With the progressive development of infrastructure construction, conventional analytical methods such as correlation index, quantifying factors, and peer review are no longer satisfactory in support for decision-making of implementing an infrastructure project in the age of big data. This study proposes using a mathematical model named Fuzzy-Neural Comprehensive Evaluation Model (FNCEM) to improve the reliability of the feasibility study of infrastructure projects by using data mining and machine learning. Specifically, the data collection on time-series data, including traffic videos (278 Gigabytes) and historical weather data, uses transportation cameras and online searching, respectively. Meanwhile, the researcher sent out a questionnaire for the collection of the public opinions upon the influencing factors that an infrastructure project may have. Then, this model implements the backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) algorithm to simulate traffic flows and generate outputs as partial quantitative references for evaluation. The traffic simulation outputs used as partial inputs to the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based Fuzzy logic module of the system for the determination of the minimum traffic flows that a construction scheme in corresponding feasibility study should meet. This study bases on a real scenario of constructing a railway-crossing facility in a college town. The research results indicated that BP-ANN was well applied to simulate 15-minute small-scale pedestrian and vehicle flow with minimum overall logarithmic mean squared errors (Log-MSE) of 3.80 and 5.09, respectively. Also, AHP-based Fuzzy evaluation significantly decreased the evaluation subjectivity of selecting construction schemes by 62.5%. It concluded that the FNCEM model has strong potentials of enriching the methodology of conducting a feasibility study of the infrastructure project

Proceedings of Abstracts, School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference 2022

© 2022 The Author(s). This is an open-access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For further details please see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Plenary by Prof. Timothy Foat, ‘Indoor dispersion at Dstl and its recent application to COVID-19 transmission’ is © Crown copyright (2022), Dstl. This material is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected] present proceedings record the abstracts submitted and accepted for presentation at SPECS 2022, the second edition of the School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference that took place online, the 12th April 2022

Assessment of Road Condition: Traffic Safety Requirement

Road deaths and injuries highly affect the lives of people worldwide. road injuries and deaths happen due to improper driving, unfit motor vehicles, traffic laws disobeying persons and poor road condition. An effort is made here to assess the factors of poor road conditions which can be improved by prioritizing. Multi criteria technique is applied to prioritize the factors. Ann technique is adopted to assess the road condition. The methodology suggested can be used to determine the level of contribution of parameters towards safety hazard. Accordingly, appropriate mitigation measures may be adopted. A further detailed study needs to be conducted on a large scale by carrying out sensitivity analysis to test the stability of the ranking obtained by the suggested methods

Investigation on soft computing techniques for airport environment evaluation systems

Spatial and temporal information exist widely in engineering fields, especially in airport environmental management systems. Airport environment is influenced by many different factors and uncertainty is a significant part of the system. Decision support considering this kind of spatial and temporal information and uncertainty is crucial for airport environment related engineering planning and operation. Geographical information systems and computer aided design are two powerful tools in supporting spatial and temporal information systems. However, the present geographical information systems and computer aided design software are still too general in considering the special features in airport environment, especially for uncertainty. In this thesis, a series of parameters and methods for neural network-based knowledge discovery and training improvement are put forward, such as the relative strength of effect, dynamic state space search strategy and compound architecture. [Continues.

Estimation of real traffic radiated emissions from electric vehicles in terms of the driving profile using neural networks

The increment of the use of electric vehicles leads to a worry about measuring its principal source of environmental pollution: electromagnetic emissions. Given the complexity of directly measuring vehicular radiated emissions in real traffic, the main contribution of this PhD thesis is to propose an indirect solution to estimate such type of vehicular emissions. Relating the on-road vehicular radiated emissions with the driving profile is a complicated task. This is because it is not possible to directly measure the vehicular radiated interferences in real traffic due to potential interferences from another electromagnetic wave sources. This thesis presents a microscopic artificial intelligence model based on neural networks to estimate real traffic radiated emissions of electric vehicles in terms of the driving dynamics. Instantaneous values of measured speed and calculated acceleration have been used to characterize the driving profile. Experimental electromagnetic interference tests have been carried out with a Vectrix electric motorcycle as well as Twizy electric cars in semi-anechoic chambers. Both the motorcycle and the car have been subjected to different urban and interurban driving profiles. Time Domain measurement methodology of electromagnetic radiated emissions has been adopted in this work to save the overall measurement time. The relationship between the magnetic radiated emissions of the Twizy and the corresponding speed has been very noticeable. Maximum magnetic field levels have been observed during high speed cruising in extra-urban driving and acceleration in urban environments. A comparative study of the prediction performance between various static and dynamic neural models has been introduced. The Multilayer Perceptron feedforward neural network trained with Extreme Learning Machines has achieved the best estimation results of magnetic radiated disturbances as function of instantaneous speed and acceleration. In this way, on-road magnetic radiated interferences from an electric vehicle equipped with a Global Positioning System can be estimated. This research line will allow quantify the pollutant electromagnetic emissions of electric vehicles and study new policies to preserve the environment

Estimation of real traffic radiated emissions from electric vehicles in terms of the driving profile using neural networks

The increment of the use of electric vehicles leads to a worry about measuring its principal source of environmental pollution: electromagnetic emissions. Given the complexity of directly measuring vehicular radiated emissions in real traffic, the main contribution of this PhD thesis is to propose an indirect solution to estimate such type of vehicular emissions. Relating the on-road vehicular radiated emissions with the driving profile is a complicated task. This is because it is not possible to directly measure the vehicular radiated interferences in real traffic due to potential interferences from another electromagnetic wave sources. This thesis presents a microscopic artificial intelligence model based on neural networks to estimate real traffic radiated emissions of electric vehicles in terms of the driving dynamics. Instantaneous values of measured speed and calculated acceleration have been used to characterize the driving profile. Experimental electromagnetic interference tests have been carried out with a Vectrix electric motorcycle as well as Twizy electric cars in semi-anechoic chambers. Both the motorcycle and the car have been subjected to different urban and interurban driving profiles. Time Domain measurement methodology of electromagnetic radiated emissions has been adopted in this work to save the overall measurement time. The relationship between the magnetic radiated emissions of the Twizy and the corresponding speed has been very noticeable. Maximum magnetic field levels have been observed during high speed cruising in extra-urban driving and acceleration in urban environments. A comparative study of the prediction performance between various static and dynamic neural models has been introduced. The Multilayer Perceptron feedforward neural network trained with Extreme Learning Machines has achieved the best estimation results of magnetic radiated disturbances as function of instantaneous speed and acceleration. In this way, on-road magnetic radiated interferences from an electric vehicle equipped with a Global Positioning System can be estimated. This research line will allow quantify the pollutant electromagnetic emissions of electric vehicles and study new policies to preserve the environment

Multi-Objective and Multi-Attribute Optimisation for Sustainable Development Decision Aiding

Optimization is considered as a decision-making process for getting the most out of available resources for the best attainable results. Many real-world problems are multi-objective or multi-attribute problems that naturally involve several competing objectives that need to be optimized simultaneously, while respecting some constraints or involving selection among feasible discrete alternatives. In this Reprint of the Special Issue, 19 research papers co-authored by 88 researchers from 14 different countries explore aspects of multi-objective or multi-attribute modeling and optimization in crisp or uncertain environments by suggesting multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) and multi-objective decision-making (MODM) approaches. The papers elaborate upon the approaches of state-of-the-art case studies in selected areas of applications related to sustainable development decision aiding in engineering and management, including construction, transportation, infrastructure development, production, and organization management