Practical volatility and correlation modeling for financial market risk management

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations - impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds

Risk assessment and relationship management: practical approach to supply chain risk management

The literature suggests the need for incorporating the risk construct into the measurement of organisational performance, although few examples are available as to how this might be undertaken in relation to supply chains. A conceptual framework for the development of performance and risk management within the supply chain is evolved from the literature and empirical evidence. The twin levels of dyadic performance/risk management and the management of a portfolio of performance/risks is addressed, employing Agency Theory to guide the analysis. The empirical evidence relates to the downstream management of dealerships by a large multinational organisation. Propositions are derived from the analysis relating to the issues and mechanisms that may be employed to effectively manage a portfolio of supply chain performance and risks

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions – in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations – impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds.

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions -- in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations -- impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds.

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations - impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds.

The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility

Using high-frequency data on Deutschemark and Yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation, covering an entire decade. In addition to being model-free, our estimates are also approximately free of measurement error under general conditions, which we delineate. Hence, for all practical purposes, we can treat the exchange rate volatilities and correlations as observed rather than latent. We do so, and we characterize their joint distribution, both unconditionally and conditionally. Noteworthy results include a simple normality-inducing volatility transformation, high contemporaneous correlation across volatilities, high correlation between correlation and volatilities, pronounced and highly persistent temporal variation in both volatilities and correlation, clear evidence of long-memory dynamics in both volatilities and correlation, and remarkably precise scaling laws under temporal aggregation.

Application-Based Financial Risk Aggregation methods

Financial risks are usually analysed by type and by activity using different assumptions and methodologies as may seem appropriate in each case. This approach makes it very difficult to ascertain the degree of diversification between various activities and to obtain a proper estimate of global risk. We show that different risk aggregation methodologies should be used depending on the purpose of the exercise. In particular, if it is to promote an efficient allocation of resources, a short term, normal circumstances view should be adopted, but if it is to ensure a high degree of financial soundness over the long term, then extreme circumstances and contingency plans should be explored. We propose a simple linear risk factor model in the first case but suggest that a full business model is required for the second. Finally, financial regulators raise an intermediate question that is almost impossible to answer, namely, what is the minimum level of capital consistent with a probability of default of the firm of 0.1% over one year, that is consistent with a single ‘A’ rating. We suggest that an extension of our normal risk factor model to estimate ‘tail’ effects could give a better approximation than the current regulatory rules.

Econometrics meets sentiment : an overview of methodology and applications

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software

Combining Objects with Rules to Represent Aggregation Knowledge in Data Warehouse and OLAP Systems

Les entrepôts de données reposent sur la modélisation multidimensionnelle. A l'aide d'outils OLAP, les décideurs analysent les données à différents niveaux d'agrégation. Il est donc nécessaire de représenter les connaissances d'agrégation dans les modèles conceptuels multidimensionnels, puis de les traduire dans les modèles logiques et physiques. Cependant, les modèles conceptuels multidimensionnels actuels représentent imparfaitement les connaissances d'agrégation, qui (1) ont une structure et une dynamique complexes et (2) sont fortement contextuelles. Afin de prendre en compte les caractéristiques de ces connaissances, nous proposons de les représenter avec des objets (diagrammes de classes UML) et des règles en langage PRR (Production Rule Representation). Les connaissances d'agrégation statiques sont représentées dans les digrammes de classes, tandis que les règles représentent la dynamique (c'est-à-dire comment l'agrégation peut être effectuée en fonction du contexte). Nous présentons les diagrammes de classes, ainsi qu'une typologie et des exemples de règles associées.Agrégation ; Entrepôt de données ; Modèle conceptuel multidimensionnel ; OLAP ; Règle de production ; UML