A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists. We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. v2 matches published version: improved presentation (including title, abstract and references), results and conclusions unchange

Multiple phase transitions in an agent-based evolutionary model with neutral fitness

Null models are crucial for understanding evolutionary processes such as speciation and adaptive radiation. We analyse an agent-based null model, considering a case without selection—neutral evolution—in which organisms are defined only by phenotype. Universal dynamics has previously been demonstrated in a related model on a neutral fitness landscape, showing that this system belongs to the directed percolation (DP) universality class. The traditional null condition of neutral fitness (where fitness is defined as the number of offspring each organism produces) is extended here to include equal probability of death among organisms. We identify two types of phase transition: (i) a non-equilibrium DP transition through generational time (i.e. survival), and (ii) an equilibrium ordinary percolation transition through the phenotype space (based on links between mating organisms). Owing to the dynamical rules of the DP reaction–diffusion process, organisms can only sparsely fill the phenotype space, resulting in significant phenotypic diversity within a cluster of mating organisms. This highlights the necessity of understanding hierarchical evolutionary relationships, rather than merely developing taxonomies based on phenotypic similarity, in order to develop models that can explain phylogenetic patterns found in the fossil record or to make hypotheses for the incomplete fossil record of deep time

Distributed Clustering and Learning Over Networks

Distributed processing over networks relies on in-network processing and cooperation among neighboring agents. Cooperation is beneficial when agents share a common objective. However, in many applications agents may belong to different clusters that pursue different objectives. Then, indiscriminate cooperation will lead to undesired results. In this work, we propose an adaptive clustering and learning scheme that allows agents to learn which neighbors they should cooperate with and which other neighbors they should ignore. In doing so, the resulting algorithm enables the agents to identify their clusters and to attain improved learning and estimation accuracy over networks. We carry out a detailed mean-square analysis and assess the error probabilities of Types I and II, i.e., false alarm and mis-detection, for the clustering mechanism. Among other results, we establish that these probabilities decay exponentially with the step-sizes so that the probability of correct clustering can be made arbitrarily close to one.Comment: 47 pages, 6 figure

AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments

This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching, clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques, covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches, but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives. The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives, i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation, often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation are more readily facilitated

Fault-Tolerant Adaptive Parallel and Distributed Simulation

Discrete Event Simulation is a widely used technique that is used to model and analyze complex systems in many fields of science and engineering. The increasingly large size of simulation models poses a serious computational challenge, since the time needed to run a simulation can be prohibitively large. For this reason, Parallel and Distributes Simulation techniques have been proposed to take advantage of multiple execution units which are found in multicore processors, cluster of workstations or HPC systems. The current generation of HPC systems includes hundreds of thousands of computing nodes and a vast amount of ancillary components. Despite improvements in manufacturing processes, failures of some components are frequent, and the situation will get worse as larger systems are built. In this paper we describe FT-GAIA, a software-based fault-tolerant extension of the GAIA/ART\`IS parallel simulation middleware. FT-GAIA transparently replicates simulation entities and distributes them on multiple execution nodes. This allows the simulation to tolerate crash-failures of computing nodes; furthermore, FT-GAIA offers some protection against byzantine failures since synchronization messages are replicated as well, so that the receiving entity can identify and discard corrupted messages. We provide an experimental evaluation of FT-GAIA on a running prototype. Results show that a high degree of fault tolerance can be achieved, at the cost of a moderate increase in the computational load of the execution units.Comment: Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real Time Applications (DS-RT 2016

LUNES: Agent-based Simulation of P2P Systems (Extended Version)

We present LUNES, an agent-based Large Unstructured NEtwork Simulator, which allows to simulate complex networks composed of a high number of nodes. LUNES is modular, since it splits the three phases of network topology creation, protocol simulation and performance evaluation. This permits to easily integrate external software tools into the main software architecture. The simulation of the interaction protocols among network nodes is performed via a simulation middleware that supports both the sequential and the parallel/distributed simulation approaches. In the latter case, a specific mechanism for the communication overhead-reduction is used; this guarantees high levels of performance and scalability. To demonstrate the efficiency of LUNES, we test the simulator with gossip protocols executed on top of networks (representing peer-to-peer overlays), generated with different topologies. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Modeling and Simulation of Peer-to-Peer Architectures and Systems (MOSPAS 2011). As part of the 2011 International Conference on High Performance Computing and Simulation (HPCS 2011