Assessing strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making and risk in a livestock production chain through experimental simulation platforms

This paper provides a research summary of a series of serious games and simulations that form the basis of an experimental platform for the study of human decision-making and behavior associated with biosecurity across complex livestock production chains. This platform is the first of its kind to address the challenges associated with scaling micro-behavior of biosecurity decision-making to macro-patterns of disease spread across strategic, tactical and operational levels, capturing the roles that facility managers and front-line workers play in making biosecurity decisions under risk and uncertainty. Informational and incentive treatments are tested within each game and simulation. Behavioral theories are used to explain these findings. Results from serious games in the form of behavioral probability distributions are then used to simulate disease incidence and spread across a complex production chain, demonstrating how micro-level behaviors contribute to larger macro-level patterns. In the case of this study, the propensity to adopt micro-level biosecurity practices are applied to a network percolation disease spread model. By presenting the suite of companion models of behavior and disease spread we are able to capture scaling dynamics of complex systems, and in the process, better understand how individual behaviors impact whole systems

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

Optimization of Agro-Socio-Hydrological Networks under Water Scarcity Conditions: Inter- and Trans-disciplinary Approaches for Sustainable Water Resources Management

Sustainable agriculture is one of the greatest challenges of our time. The pathways to sustainable agriculture consist of successive decisions for optimization that are often a matter of negotiation as resources are shared at all levels. This work essentially comprises three research projects with novel inter- and transdisciplinary methods to better understand and optimize agricultural water management under water scarcity conditions. In the first project, climate variability in the US Corn Belt was analyzed with a focus on deficit irrigation to find the optimal irrigation strategies for possible future changes. Two optimization methods for deficit irrigation showed positive water savings and yield increases in the predicted water scarcity scenarios. In the second project, a serious board game was developed and game sessions were carried out to simulate the complex decision space of actors in irrigated agriculture under climate and groundwater variability. The aim of the game was to understand how decisions are made by actors by observing the course of the game and linking these results to common behavioral theories implemented in socio-ecological models. In the third project, two frameworks based on innovation theories and agro-social-hydrological networks were developed and tested using agent-based models. In the first framework, centralized and decentralized irrigation management in Kansas US was compared to observe the development of collective action and the innovation diffusion of sustainable irrigation strategies. The second framework analyzed different decision processes to perform a sensitivity analysis of innovation implementation, groundwater abstraction and saline water intrusion in the Al Batinah region in Oman. Both frameworks allowed the evaluation of diverse behavior theories and decision-making parameters to find the optimal irrigation management and the impact of diverse socio-ecological policies. Inter- and Trans-disciplinary simulations of the interactions between human decisions and water systems, like the ones presented in here, improve the understanding of irrigation systems as anthropogenic landscapes in socio-economic and ecological contexts. The joint application of statistical and participatory approaches enables different but complementary perspectives that allow for a multidimensional analysis of irrigation strategies and water resources management.:Contents Declaration of Independent Work i Declaration of Conformity iii List of Publications v Acknowledgments ix Abstract xi Zusammenfassung xiii Contents xv List of Figures xvii List of Tables xix List of Abbreviations xxi 1. Introduction 3 1.1 Complex Networks Approach 3 1.2 Research Objectives 4 1.3 Thesis Outline 5 2. Literature Review 9 2.1 Agro-Hydrological Systems 9 2.1.1 Necessary Disciplinary Convergence 9 2.1.2 Multi-Objective Optimization Approaches 10 2.2 Optimization of Crop-Water Productivity 11 2.2.1 Irrigation Strategies 11 2.3 Sustainable Management of A-S-H Networks 12 2.3.1 Socio-Hydrology 13 2.3.2 Representation of Decision-Making Processes 14 2.3.3 Influence of Social Network 16 2.4 Socio-Hydrological Modeling Approaches 17 2.4.1 Game Theory Approach 17 2.4.2 Agent-Based Modeling 18 2.4.3 Participatory Modeling 20 2.5 Education for Sustainability 21 2.5.1 Experiential Learning 21 2.5.2 Serious Games 22 2.6 Summary of Research Gaps 24 3. Irrigation Optimization in The US Corn Belt 27 3.1 Agriculture in The Corn Belt 27 3.2 Historical and Prospective Climatic Variability 29 3.3 Simulated Irrigation Strategies 29 3.4 Optimal Irrigation Strategies Throughout the Corn Belt 30 3.5 Summary 31 4. Participatory Analysis of A-S-H Dynamics 35 4.1 Decision-Making Processes in A-S-H Networks 36 4.1.1 Collaborative and Participatory Data Collection Approaches 37 4.2 MAHIZ 38 4.2.1 Serious Game Development 38 4.2.2 Implementation of Serious Game Sessions 39 4.4 Evaluation of The Learning Process in Serious Games 40 4.5 Evaluation of Behavior Theories and Social Parameters 42 4.6 Summary 43 5 Robust Evaluation of Decision-Making Processes In A-S-H Networks 47 5.1 Innovation in A-S-H Networks 47 5.1.1 Multilevel Social Networks 48 5.1.2 Theoretical Framework of Developed ABMs 49 5.2 DInKA Model: Irrigation Expansion in Kansas, US 50 5.2.1 Robust Analysis of Innovation Diffusion 53 5.3 SAHIO Implementation: Coastal Agriculture in Oman 54 5.3.1 SAHIO Sensitivity analysis 58 5.4 Summary 60 6 Conclusions and Outlook 63 6.1 Limitations 64 6.2 Outlook 64 Bibliography 69 Appendix A. Implementation Code 79 A.1 DInKA 79 A.2 SAHIO 82 Appendix B. SAHIO’s Decision-Making Process for Each MoHuB Theory 91 Appendix C. SAHIO A-S-H Innovation Results 97 Appendix D. Selected Publications 101 D.1 Evaluation of Hydroclimatic Variability and Prospective Irrigation Strategies in the U.S. Corn Belt. 103 D.2 A Serious Board Game to Analyze Socio-Ecological Dynamics towards Collaboration in Agriculture. 121 D.2.1 MAHIZ Rulebook 140 D.2.2 MAHIZ Feedback Form 15

Analyzing Interaction Patterns to Verify a Simulation/Game Model

Thesis (Ph.D.) - Indiana University, School of Education, 2012In order for simulations and games to be effective for learning, instructional designers must verify that the underlying computational models being used have an appropriate degree of fidelity to the conceptual models of their real-world counterparts. A simulation/game that provides incorrect feedback is likely to promote misunderstanding and adversely affect learning and transfer. Numerous methods for verifying the accuracy of a computational model exist, but it is generally accepted that no single method is adequate and that multiple methods should be used. The purpose of this study was to propose and test a new method for collecting and analyzing users' interaction data (e.g., choices made, actions taken, results and feedback obtained) to provide quantified evidence that the underlying computational model of a simulation/game represents the conceptual model with sufficient accuracy. In this study, analysis of patterns in time (APT) was used to compare gameplay results from the Diffusion Simulation Game (DSG) with predictions based on diffusion of innovations theory (DOI). A program was written to automatically play the DSG by analyzing the game state during each turn, seeking patterns of game component attributes that matched optimal strategies based on DOI theory. When the use of optimal strategies did not result in the desired number of successful games, here defined as the threshold of confidence for model verification, further investigation revealed flaws in the computational model. These flaws were incrementally corrected and subsequent gameplay results were analyzed until the threshold of confidence was achieved. In addition to analysis of patterns in time for model verification (APTMV), other verification methods used included code walkthrough, execution tracing, desk checking, syntax checking, and statistical analysis. The APTMV method was found to be complementary to these other methods, providing quantified evidence of the computational model's degree of accuracy and pinpointing flaws that could be corrected to improve fidelity. The APTMV approach to verification and improvement of computational models is described and compared with other methods, and improvements to the process are proposed

Virtual Reality Games for Motor Rehabilitation

This paper presents a fuzzy logic based method to track user satisfaction without the need for devices to monitor users physiological conditions. User satisfaction is the key to any product’s acceptance; computer applications and video games provide a unique opportunity to provide a tailored environment for each user to better suit their needs. We have implemented a non-adaptive fuzzy logic model of emotion, based on the emotional component of the Fuzzy Logic Adaptive Model of Emotion (FLAME) proposed by El-Nasr, to estimate player emotion in UnrealTournament 2004. In this paper we describe the implementation of this system and present the results of one of several play tests. Our research contradicts the current literature that suggests physiological measurements are needed. We show that it is possible to use a software only method to estimate user emotion

Individuality and the collective in AI agents: Explorations of shared consciousness and digital homunculi in the metaverse for cultural heritage

The confluence of extended reality (XR) technologies, including augmented and virtual reality, with large language models (LLM) marks a significant advancement in the field of digital humanities, opening uncharted avenues for the representation of cultural heritage within the burgeoning metaverse. This paper undertakes an examination of the potentialities and intricacies of such a convergence, focusing particularly on the creation of digital homunculi or changelings. These virtual beings, remarkable for their sentience and individuality, are also part of a collective consciousness, a notion explored through a thematic comparison in science fiction with the Borg and the Changelings in the Star Trek universe. Such a comparison offers a metaphorical framework for discussing complex phenomena such as shared consciousness and individuality, illuminating their bearing on perceptions of self and awareness. Further, the paper considers the ethical implications of these concepts, including potential loss of individuality and the challenges inherent to accurate representation of historical figures and cultures. The latter necessitates collaboration with cultural experts, underscoring the intersectionality of technological innovation and cultural sensitivity. Ultimately, this chapter contributes to a deeper understanding of the technical aspects of integrating large language models with immersive technologies and situates these developments within a nuanced cultural and ethical discourse. By offering a comprehensive overview and proposing clear recommendations, the paper lays the groundwork for future research and development in the application of these technologies within the unique context of cultural heritage representation in the metaverse

Agents for educational games and simulations

This book consists mainly of revised papers that were presented at the Agents for Educational Games and Simulation (AEGS) workshop held on May 2, 2011, as part of the Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems (AAMAS) conference in Taipei, Taiwan. The 12 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from various submissions. The papers are organized topical sections on middleware applications, dialogues and learning, adaption and convergence, and agent applications

Giving games a day job: developing a digital game-based resource for journalism training

Computer simulations have been commonplace in some industries such as the military, medicine and science and educators are now actively exploring their potential application to a range of disciplines. Educators and trainers have looked to the multi-billion dollar computer and video game industry for inspiration, and Marc Prensky (2001) has used the phrase digital game-based learning to describe this emerging learning and teaching framework. The purpose of this research project is to produce an Internet-delivered newsgathering/newswriting training package that can be used for an expanding, and increasingly visually literate, tertiary journalism eduction field. This thesis comprises two parts: a) the written component which describes the production of the hypertext-based journalism training scenario and, b) a prototype copy of the training scenario on CD-ROM. The Flood scenario depicts the flooding of a fictional city called Lagoon, and is based on real news stories, media releases and audio-visual material gathered during major floods in the Central West of NSW in August 1990. In its present form Flood is designed as a multi-path learning narrative, which participants must pursue and unravel in their search for news stories. My intention has been to develop a more engaging activity than is currently the case for many traditional, paper-based, approaches to journalism training exercises. Flood is also specifically designed for flexible delivery via the Internet or CD-ROM. This approach makes it especially well suited for both on-campus and distance education students. The Flood resource is at this stage a limited prototype designed as a teaching aid. A theoretical framework combining the roles of researchers and producer is discussed in the thesis. An overview of the use of simulations in journalism education contextualises the practical project, and the place of Web-based scenario simulation within an emerging teaching framework digital game-based learning is considered. There is also an examination of historical precedents for the application of technology in Australian journalism classrooms. The Flood prototype has been trailed at Charles Sturt University with on-campus undergraduate students in 2001 and 2002, and with distance education postgraduate students in 2002. Descriptions of these trials, and details of the student feedback, are provided. This project also includes an experimental narrative element, the use of a software artificial intelligence character known as a chatterbox to explore possibilities for providing a more personal and engaging experience. One of the key design intentions of this project has been consideration of ways to allow participants to develop their own lines of questioning, rather than forcing them to simply follow pre-determined paths. The thesis concludes that digital materials such as the Flood package are worthy of future development to complement the face-to-face instruction in reporting tasks, internships and classroom simulations traditionally used in journalism education and training. Computer simulations are a means for providing students with a controlled exposure to the journalistic process. However, simulation and reality are clearly two different experiences, and digital game-based learning in its present form does not provide a complete substitute for journalism as it is practised in the workplace