Generative Adversarial Networks for Financial Trading Strategies Fine-Tuning and Combination

Systematic trading strategies are algorithmic procedures that allocate assets aiming to optimize a certain performance criterion. To obtain an edge in a highly competitive environment, the analyst needs to proper fine-tune its strategy, or discover how to combine weak signals in novel alpha creating manners. Both aspects, namely fine-tuning and combination, have been extensively researched using several methods, but emerging techniques such as Generative Adversarial Networks can have an impact into such aspects. Therefore, our work proposes the use of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for trading strategies calibration and aggregation. To this purpose, we provide a full methodology on: (i) the training and selection of a cGAN for time series data; (ii) how each sample is used for strategies calibration; and (iii) how all generated samples can be used for ensemble modelling. To provide evidence that our approach is well grounded, we have designed an experiment with multiple trading strategies, encompassing 579 assets. We compared cGAN with an ensemble scheme and model validation methods, both suited for time series. Our results suggest that cGANs are a suitable alternative for strategies calibration and combination, providing outperformance when the traditional techniques fail to generate any alpha

Wild Patterns: Ten Years After the Rise of Adversarial Machine Learning

Learning-based pattern classifiers, including deep networks, have shown impressive performance in several application domains, ranging from computer vision to cybersecurity. However, it has also been shown that adversarial input perturbations carefully crafted either at training or at test time can easily subvert their predictions. The vulnerability of machine learning to such wild patterns (also referred to as adversarial examples), along with the design of suitable countermeasures, have been investigated in the research field of adversarial machine learning. In this work, we provide a thorough overview of the evolution of this research area over the last ten years and beyond, starting from pioneering, earlier work on the security of non-deep learning algorithms up to more recent work aimed to understand the security properties of deep learning algorithms, in the context of computer vision and cybersecurity tasks. We report interesting connections between these apparently-different lines of work, highlighting common misconceptions related to the security evaluation of machine-learning algorithms. We review the main threat models and attacks defined to this end, and discuss the main limitations of current work, along with the corresponding future challenges towards the design of more secure learning algorithms.Comment: Accepted for publication on Pattern Recognition, 201

Random Feature-based Online Multi-kernel Learning in Environments with Unknown Dynamics

Kernel-based methods exhibit well-documented performance in various nonlinear learning tasks. Most of them rely on a preselected kernel, whose prudent choice presumes task-specific prior information. Especially when the latter is not available, multi-kernel learning has gained popularity thanks to its flexibility in choosing kernels from a prescribed kernel dictionary. Leveraging the random feature approximation and its recent orthogonality-promoting variant, the present contribution develops a scalable multi-kernel learning scheme (termed Raker) to obtain the sought nonlinear learning function `on the fly,' first for static environments. To further boost performance in dynamic environments, an adaptive multi-kernel learning scheme (termed AdaRaker) is developed. AdaRaker accounts not only for data-driven learning of kernel combination, but also for the unknown dynamics. Performance is analyzed in terms of both static and dynamic regrets. AdaRaker is uniquely capable of tracking nonlinear learning functions in environments with unknown dynamics, and with with analytic performance guarantees. Tests with synthetic and real datasets are carried out to showcase the effectiveness of the novel algorithms.Comment: 36 page

Generative Adversarial Networks Selection Approach for Extremely Imbalanced Fault Diagnosis of Reciprocating Machinery

At present, countless approaches to fault diagnosis in reciprocating machines have been proposed, all considering that the available machinery dataset is in equal proportions for all conditions. However, when the application is closer to reality, the problem of data imbalance is increasingly evident. In this paper, we propose a method for the creation of diagnoses that consider an extreme imbalance in the available data. Our approach first processes the vibration signals of the machine using a wavelet packet transform-based feature-extraction stage. Then, improved generative models are obtained with a dissimilarity-based model selection to artificially balance the dataset. Finally, a Random Forest classifier is created to address the diagnostic task. This methodology provides a considerable improvement with 99% of data imbalance over other approaches reported in the literature, showing performance similar to that obtained with a balanced set of data.National Natural Science Foundation of China, under Grant 51605406National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 7180104