Integration of tools for the Design and Assessment of High-Performance, Highly Reliable Computing Systems (DAHPHRS), phase 1

Systems for Space Defense Initiative (SDI) space applications typically require both high performance and very high reliability. These requirements present the systems engineer evaluating such systems with the extremely difficult problem of conducting performance and reliability trade-offs over large design spaces. A controlled development process supported by appropriate automated tools must be used to assure that the system will meet design objectives. This report describes an investigation of methods, tools, and techniques necessary to support performance and reliability modeling for SDI systems development. Models of the JPL Hypercubes, the Encore Multimax, and the C.S. Draper Lab Fault-Tolerant Parallel Processor (FTPP) parallel-computing architectures using candidate SDI weapons-to-target assignment algorithms as workloads were built and analyzed as a means of identifying the necessary system models, how the models interact, and what experiments and analyses should be performed. As a result of this effort, weaknesses in the existing methods and tools were revealed and capabilities that will be required for both individual tools and an integrated toolset were identified

Human-Machine Collaborative Optimization via Apprenticeship Scheduling

Coordinating agents to complete a set of tasks with intercoupled temporal and resource constraints is computationally challenging, yet human domain experts can solve these difficult scheduling problems using paradigms learned through years of apprenticeship. A process for manually codifying this domain knowledge within a computational framework is necessary to scale beyond the ``single-expert, single-trainee" apprenticeship model. However, human domain experts often have difficulty describing their decision-making processes, causing the codification of this knowledge to become laborious. We propose a new approach for capturing domain-expert heuristics through a pairwise ranking formulation. Our approach is model-free and does not require enumerating or iterating through a large state space. We empirically demonstrate that this approach accurately learns multifaceted heuristics on a synthetic data set incorporating job-shop scheduling and vehicle routing problems, as well as on two real-world data sets consisting of demonstrations of experts solving a weapon-to-target assignment problem and a hospital resource allocation problem. We also demonstrate that policies learned from human scheduling demonstration via apprenticeship learning can substantially improve the efficiency of a branch-and-bound search for an optimal schedule. We employ this human-machine collaborative optimization technique on a variant of the weapon-to-target assignment problem. We demonstrate that this technique generates solutions substantially superior to those produced by human domain experts at a rate up to 9.5 times faster than an optimization approach and can be applied to optimally solve problems twice as complex as those solved by a human demonstrator.Comment: Portions of this paper were published in the Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) in 2016 and in the Proceedings of Robotics: Science and Systems (RSS) in 2016. The paper consists of 50 pages with 11 figures and 4 table

Modelling and Optimisation of UHF band EW Based WTA Problem within the Scope of Threat Assessment

The classical weapon target allocation (WTA) problem has been evaluated within the scope of electronic warfare (EW) threat assessment with an electromagnetic effect-based jammer- tactical radio engagement approach. As different from the literature, optimum allocation of non-directional jammers operating at different operating UHF frequencies under constraints to RF emitters is aimed in this study. The values of the targets are modelled using an original threat assessment algorithm developed that takes into account operating frequencies, jamming distance, and weather conditions. The computed jammer-target effect matrix has been solved under different scenarios according to the efficiency and cost constraints. It is seen at the end of the simulations that the allocation results for EW applications largely depend on the effect ratio used. The better results are taken in the case of under 0.5 effect ratio. Finally, jammer-radio allocation problem specified at the suggested model is solved successfully and effectively

Real-Time Heuristics and Metaheuristics for Static and Dynamic Weapon Target Assignments

The problem of targeting and engaging individual missiles (targets) with an arsenal of interceptors (weapons) is known as the weapon target assignment problem. This problem has been well-researched since the seminal work in 1958. There are two distinct categories of the weapon target assignment problem: static and dynamic. The static weapon target assignment problem considers a single instance in which a known number of incoming missiles is to be engaged with a finite number of interceptors. By contrast, the dynamic weapon target assignment problem considers either follow on engagement(s) should the first engagement(s) fail, a subsequent salvo of incoming missiles, or both. This research seeks to define and solve a realistic dynamic model. First, assignment heuristics and metaheuristics are developed to provide rapid near-optimal solutions to the static weapon target assignment. Next, a technique capable of determining how many of each interceptor type to reserve for a second salvo by means of approximate dynamic programming is developed. Lastly, a model that realistically considers erratic flight paths of incoming missiles and determines assignments and firing sequences of interceptors within a simulation to minimize the number of hits to a protected asset is developed. Additionally, the first contemporary survey of the weapon target assignment problem since 1985 is presented. Collectively, this work extends the research of missile defense into practical application more so than currently is found within the literature

Determining Pilot Manning for Bomber Longevity

In support of US Air Force efforts to conserve resources without sacrificing capability, this research examines the question of whether the 509th Bomb Wing could continue to provide maximum combat capability with fewer assigned pilots. During peacetime, pilot proficiency training comprises the majority of annual flying hours for the small B-2 bomber fleet. Optimal pilot manning will decrease the accumulation of excess wear on the airframes; helping to extend the viable life of the B-2 fleet and preserve the deterrent and combat capabilities that it provides to the United States. The operations and maintenance activity flows for B-2 aircraft and pilots in a notional sustained combat scenario are constructed in an Arena discrete-event simulation model. The model provides the capability to determine optimum manning levels for combat-qualified B-2 pilots across a range of fleet mission capable rates. Determination of actual optimum manning levels is sensitive to duration and probability parameters which are unavailable for use in this work. Notional parameter estimates are used to assess combat mission capability and pilot manning

Flexible weapons architecture design

Present day air-delivered weapons are of a closed architecture, with little to no ability to tailor the weapon for the individual engagement. The closed architectures require weaponeers to make the target fit the weapon instead of fitting the individual weapons to a target. The concept of a flexible weapons aims to modularize weapons design using an open architecture shell into which different modules are inserted to achieve the desired target fractional damage while reducing cost and civilian casualties. This thesis shows that the architecture design factors of damage mechanism, fusing, weapons weight, guidance, and propulsion are significant in enhancing weapon performance objectives, and would benefit from modularization. Additionally, this thesis constructs an algorithm that can be used to design a weapon set for a particular target class based on these modular components

OPTIMIZING VLS FIRING POLICY: AN ENUMERATION OF HETEROGENEOUS SEQUENCES TO INFORM EXPENDITURE

The U.S. Navy (USN) utilizes the Vertical Launch System (VLS) to store and launch both their offensive and defensive missiles. Since the number of VLS silos on a given ship is fixed, to maximize offensive capability the USN needs to minimize the number of interceptors required to combat incoming anti-surface missiles. Current firing policies may be overly conservative and expend too many interceptors per incoming threat, which results in a substantial fraction of VLS silos dedicated to defensive missiles. Decision makers need an analysis tool to explore the trade-off between missile consumption and probability of raid annihilation (PRA) for various firing policies and would also benefit from a prescriptive algorithm to help inform missile expenditure. This thesis provides a model to optimize VLS firing policy using a set of multiple interceptor types while accounting for range limitations, travel time, multi-interceptor salvos, battle damage assessment, and range dependent probability of kill. Additionally, the thesis derives analytical results for the optimal, lowest-cost allocation of interceptors in the single interceptor case, which, in turn, generates insight into how to structure sequential salvos.N81, Washington DCEnsign, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Human machine collaborative decision making in a complex optimization system

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 149-151).Numerous complex real-world applications are either theoretically intractable or unable to be solved in a practical amount of time. Researchers and practitioners are forced to implement heuristics in solving such problems that can lead to highly sub-optimal solutions. Our research focuses on inserting a human "in-the-loop" of the decision-making or problem solving process in order to generate solutions in a timely manner that improve upon those that are generated either scolely by a human or solely by a computer. We refer to this as Human-Machine Collaborative Decision-Making (HMCDM). The typical design process for developing human-machine approaches either starts with a human approach and augments it with decision-support or starts with an automated approach and augments it with operator input. We provide an alternative design process by presenting an 1HMCDM methodology that addresses collaboration from the outset of the design of the decision- making approach. We apply this design process to a complex military resource allocation and planning problem which selects, sequences, and schedules teams of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to perform sensing (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance - ISR) and strike activities against enemy targets. Specifically, we examined varying degrees of human-machine collaboration in the creation of variables in the solution of this problem. We also introduce an IIHMCDM method that combines traditional goal decomposition with a model formulation into an Iterative Composite Variable Approach for solving large-scale optimization problems.(cont.) Finally, we show through experimentation the potential for improvement in the quality and speed of solutions that can be achieved through the use of an HMCDM approach.by Jeremy S. Malasky.S.M

A Multi-Objective Approach to Tactical Maneuvering Within Real Time Strategy Games

The real time strategy (RTS) environment is a strong platform for simulating complex tactical problems. The overall research goal is to develop artificial intelligence (AI) RTS planning agents for military critical decision making education. These agents should have the ability to perform at an expert level as well as to assess a players critical decision-making ability or skill-level. The nature of the time sensitivity within the RTS environment creates very complex situations. Each situation must be analyzed and orders must be given to each tactical unit before the scenario on the battlefield changes and makes the decisions no longer relevant. This particular research effort of RTS AI development focuses on constructing a unique approach for tactical unit positioning within an RTS environment. By utilizing multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) for finding an \optimal positioning solution, an AI agent can quickly determine an effective unit positioning solution with a fast, rapid response. The development of such an RTS AI agent goes through three distinctive phases. The first of which is mathematically describing the problem space of the tactical positioning of units within a combat scenario. Such a definition allows for the development of a generic MOEA search algorithm that is applicable to nearly every scenario. The next major phase requires the development and integration of this algorithm into the Air Force Institute of Technology RTS AI agent. Finally, the last phase involves experimenting with the positioning agent in order to determine the effectiveness and efficiency when placed against various other tactical options. Experimental results validate that controlling the position of the units within a tactical situation is an effective alternative for an RTS AI agent to win a battle