On Pattern Mining in Graph Data to Support Decision-Making

In recent years graph data models became increasingly important in both research and industry. Their core is a generic data structure of things (vertices) and connections among those things (edges). Rich graph models such as the property graph model promise an extraordinary analytical power because relationships can be evaluated without knowledge about a domain-specific database schema. This dissertation studies the usage of graph models for data integration and data mining of business data. Although a typical company's business data implicitly describes a graph it is usually stored in multiple relational databases. Therefore, we propose the first semi-automated approach to transform data from multiple relational databases into a single graph whose vertices represent domain objects and whose edges represent their mutual relationships. This transformation is the base of our conceptual framework BIIIG (Business Intelligence with Integrated Instance Graphs). We further proposed a graph-based approach to data integration. The process is executed after the transformation. In established data mining approaches interrelated input data is mostly represented by tuples of measure values and dimension values. In the context of graphs these values must be attached to the graph structure and aggregated measure values are graph attributes. Since the latter was not supported by any existing model, we proposed the use of collections of property graphs. They act as data structure of the novel Extended Property Graph Model (EPGM). The model supports vertices and edges that may appear in different graphs as well as graph properties. Further on, we proposed some operators that benefit from this data structure, for example, graph-based aggregation of measure values. A primitive operation of graph pattern mining is frequent subgraph mining (FSM). However, existing algorithms provided no support for directed multigraphs. We extended the popular gSpan algorithm to overcome this limitation. Some patterns might not be frequent while their generalizations are. Generalized graph patterns can be mined by attaching vertices to taxonomies. We proposed a novel approach to Generalized Multidimensional Frequent Subgraph Mining (GM-FSM), in particular the first solution to generalized FSM that supports not only directed multigraphs but also multiple dimensional taxonomies. In scenarios that compare patterns of different categories, e.g., fraud or not, FSM is not sufficient since pattern frequencies may differ by category. Further on, determining all pattern frequencies without frequency pruning is not an option due to the computational complexity of FSM. Thus, we developed an FSM extension to extract patterns that are characteristic for a specific category according to a user-defined interestingness function called Characteristic Subgraph Mining (CSM). Parts of this work were done in the context of GRADOOP, a framework for distributed graph analytics. To make the primitive operation of frequent subgraph mining available to this framework, we developed Distributed In-Memory gSpan (DIMSpan), a frequent subgraph miner that is tailored to the characteristics of shared-nothing clusters and distributed dataflow systems. Finally, the results of use case evaluations in cooperation with a large scale enterprise will be presented. This includes a report of practical experiences gained in implementation and application of the proposed algorithms

Modelling a conversational agent (Botocrates) for promoting critical thinking and argumentation skills

Students in higher education institutions are often advised to think critically, yet without being guided to do so. The study investigated the use of a conversational agent (Botocrates) for supporting critical thinking and academic argumentation skills. The overarching research questions were: can a conversational agent support critical thinking and academic argumentation skills? If so, how? The study was carried out in two stages: modelling and evaluating Botocrates' prototype. The prototype was a Wizard-of-Oz system where a human plays Botocrates' role by following a set of instructions and knowledge-base to guide generation of responses. Both stages were conducted at the School of Education at the University of Leeds. In the first stage, the study analysed 13 logs of online seminars in order to define the tasks and dialogue strategies needed to be performed by Botocrates. The study identified two main tasks of Botocrates: providing answers to students' enquiries and engaging students in the argumentation process. Botocrates’ dialogue strategies and contents were built to achieve these two tasks. The novel theoretical framework of the ‘challenge to explain’ process and the notion of the ‘constructive expansion of exchange structure’ were produced during this stage and incorporated into Botocrates’ prototype. The aim of the ‘challenge to explain’ process is to engage users in repeated and constant cycles of reflective thinking processes. The ‘constructive expansion of exchange structure’ is the practical application of the ‘challenge to explain’ process. In the second stage, the study used the Wizard-of-Oz (WOZ) experiments and interviews to evaluate Botocrates’ prototype. 7 students participated in the evaluation stage and each participant was immediately interviewed after chatting with Botocrates. The analysis of the data gathered from the WOZ and interviews showed encouraging results in terms of students’ engagement in the process of argumentation. As a result of the role of ‘critic’ played by Botocrates during the interactions, users actively and positively adopted the roles of explainer, clarifier, and evaluator. However, the results also showed negative experiences that occurred to users during the interaction. Improving Botocrates’ performance and training users could decrease users’ unsuccessful and negative experiences. The study identified the critical success and failure factors related to achieving the tasks of Botocrates

Exploring future opportunities and challenges of Demand Side Management with Agent Based Modelling

Electricity systems worldwide are transforming in-line with the global decarbonisation goals. On the supply side, renewable energy resources are replacing fossil fuels which introduces uncertainty in electricity generation. On the demand side, heating and transport electrification coupled with continuous integration of small scale renewables and energy storage are transforming the interactions between consumers and generators. These changes are raising new challenges for system operators in terms of balancing electricity in the grid. Demand-side management (DSM), whereby electricity consumption is coordinated with variable supply from renewables, has been shown to offer a promising solution to the above problem. However, the extent to which the future impact of DSM has been holistically assessed is arguable. Current model-based assessment of DSM primarily focuses on its benefits, ignoring the potential challenges since the testing tends to be carried out in an isolated and idealistic setting. This work proposes a model for Electricity System Management using an Agent based approach (or ESMA), which includes heterogeneous consumers, aggregators, the system operator, and market. The main feature of the model is its capability to simulate different regimes of DSM: decentralised (performed by consumers), semi-centralised (performed by aggregators), and centralised (performed by the system operator). The impact of each DSM regime is assessed in terms system costs, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer bills in the context of the British electricity system for 2015-2050. It is found that a trade-off exists between consumer autonomy and system optimality with regards to DSM. It is argued that the level of information sharing between consumers and the system can be minimised, as better learning and predicting algorithms are developed. The thesis is concluded with a discussion on the potential consumer tariff structure which would reward consumer flexibility