Estimating the effect of healthcare-associated infections on excess length of hospital stay using inverse probability-weighted survival curves

Background: Studies estimating excess length of stay (LOS) attributable to nosocomial infections have failed to address time-varying confounding, likely leading to overestimation of their impact. We present a methodology based on inverse probability–weighted survival curves to address this limitation. Methods: A case study focusing on intensive care unit–acquired bacteremia using data from 2 general intensive care units (ICUs) from 2 London teaching hospitals were used to illustrate the methodology. The area under the curve of a conventional Kaplan-Meier curve applied to the observed data was compared with that of an inverse probability–weighted Kaplan-Meier curve applied after treating bacteremia as censoring events. Weights were based on the daily probability of acquiring bacteremia. The difference between the observed average LOS and the average LOS that would be observed if all bacteremia cases could be prevented was multiplied by the number of admitted patients to obtain the total excess LOS. Results: The estimated total number of extra ICU days caused by 666 bacteremia cases was estimated at 2453 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1803–3103) days. The excess number of days was overestimated when ignoring time-varying confounding (2845 [95% CI, 2276–3415]) or when completely ignoring confounding (2838 [95% CI, 2101–3575]). Conclusions: ICU-acquired bacteremia was associated with a substantial excess LOS. Wider adoption of inverse probability–weighted survival curves or alternative techniques that address time-varying confounding could lead to better informed decision making around nosocomial infections and other time-dependent exposures

Real world costs and cost-effectiveness of Rituximab for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients: a population-based analysis.

BackgroundCurrent treatment of diffuse-large-B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) includes rituximab, an expensive drug, combined with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) chemotherapy. Economic models have predicted rituximab plus CHOP (RCHOP) to be a cost-effective alternative to CHOP alone as first-line treatment of DLBCL, but it remains unclear what its real-world costs and cost-effectiveness are in routine clinical practice.MethodsWe performed a population-based retrospective cohort study from 1997 to 2007, using linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to evaluate the costs and cost-effectiveness of RCHOP compared to CHOP alone. A historical control cohort (n = 1,099) with DLBCL who received CHOP before rituximab approval was hard-matched on age and treatment intensity and then propensity-score matched on sex, comorbidity, and histology to 1,099 RCHOP patients. All costs and outcomes were adjusted for censoring using the inverse probability weighting method. The main outcome measure was incremental cost per life-year gained (LYG).ResultsRituximab was associated with a life expectancy increase of 3.2 months over 5 years at an additional cost of $16,298, corresponding to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of$61,984 (95% CI $34,087-$135,890) per LYG. The probability of being cost-effective was 90% if the willingness-to-pay threshold was $100,000/LYG. The cost-effectiveness ratio was most favourable for patients less than 60 years old ($31,800/LYG) but increased to $80,600/LYG for patients 60-79 years old and$110,100/LYG for patients ≥ 80 years old. We found that post-market survival benefits of rituximab are similar to or lower than those reported in clinical trials, while the costs, incremental costs and cost-effectiveness ratios are higher than in published economic models and differ by age.ConclusionsOur results showed that the addition of rituximab to standard CHOP chemotherapy was associated with improvement in survival but at a higher cost, and was potentially cost-effective by standard thresholds for patients <60 years old. However, cost-effectiveness decreased significantly with age, suggesting that rituximab may be not as economically attractive in the very elderly on average. This has important clinical implications regarding age-related use and funding decisions on this drug

Estimating Marginal Hazard Ratios by Simultaneously Using A Set of Propensity Score Models: A Multiply Robust Approach

The inverse probability weighted Cox model is frequently used to estimate marginal hazard ratios. Its validity requires a crucial condition that the propensity score model is correctly specified. To provide protection against misspecification of the propensity score model, we propose a weighted estimation method rooted in empirical likelihood theory. The proposed estimator is multiply robust in that it is guaranteed to be consistent when a set of postulated propensity score models contains a correctly specified model. Our simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory finite sample performance of the proposed method in terms of consistency and efficiency. We apply the proposed method to compare the risk of postoperative hospitalization between sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass using data from a large medical claims and billing database.We further extend the development to multi-site studies to enable each site to postulate multiple site-specific propensity score models